Realized P&L
+$2
Unrealized P&L
+$2
Hit rate
100.0%
Resolved
2
Trades
300
lifetime
Volume
$585
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$45
17 positions
First seen
2026-03-08
last 06-15 13:15
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Politics
47% 100% +$2
Other
25%
Crypto
22%
Tech
4%
Sports
3%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
35 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes -31 $-12 40¢ $-13 $-0 06-14 10:15
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +15 $4 30¢ $5 +$0 06-07 19:34
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes +52 $3 $4 +$1 06-14 23:35
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes -66 $-4 $-4 +$0 06-06 16:03
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +26 $5 14¢ $3 $-2 06-06 16:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +5 $1 57¢ $3 +$2 06-11 19:04
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +32 $3 $3 $-0 06-14 10:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +19 $4 11¢ $2 $-2 06-11 20:16
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes +55 $3 $2 $-1 06-12 08:41
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +12 $-0 16¢ $2 +$2 06-11 19:04
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No +5 $1 34¢ $2 +$1 06-06 16:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +6 $1 18¢ $1 +$0 06-06 16:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes -109 $-2 $-1 +$0 06-09 15:44
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No -5 $-1 22¢ $-1 $-0 06-11 19:00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes -5 $-0 $-0 $-0 06-13 20:14
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes -10 $-0 $-0 +$0 06-06 16:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No -25 $-1 $-0 +$1 06-14 21:36