Wavy-Curve — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.31K

Unrealized P&L

-$18

Hit rate

29.5%

Resolved

Trades

486

lifetime

Volume

$12.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$87

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-13

last 06-12 07:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

85% 50% +$1,309

Other

12% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 99 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+340	$61	15¢	$49	$-12	06-11 12:40
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+2,226	$30	1¢	$26	$-4	06-10 08:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+125	$10	6¢	$7	$-3	06-08 19:38
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Yes	+10	$3	34¢	$3	+$0	06-08 00:08
NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	+10	$1	8¢	$1	$-0	06-07 19:26
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+0	$-1	6¢	$0	+$1	06-07 19:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	37	$3.8K	14,435	16,752	-2,317	Yes	$-84	05-09 06:03
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	91	$2.5K	66,817	66,817	+0	open	—	03-27 20:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.6K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	+$1,394	05-09 06:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	20	$912	28,101	28,601	-500	open	—	04-26 12:44
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	19	$706	4,200	4,000	+200	open	—	03-28 08:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$436	350	350	+0	open	—	04-08 07:08
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	1	$370	377	0	+377	open	—	05-29 07:10
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	7	$366	1,020	1,020	+0	open	—	03-27 07:19
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$300	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	04-01 19:55
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	4	$256	292	0	+292	open	—	06-12 07:20
will the us next strike iran on february 23 2026 et	7	$229	7,433	7,433	+0	open	—	02-23 13:45
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	98	$201	1,493	1,493	+0	open	—	06-07 19:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	3	$193	1,385	1,385	+0	open	—	03-11 11:19
btc updown 15m 1772104500	2	$110	134	0	+134	open	—	02-26 11:19
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	17	$108	2,710	484	+2,226	open	—	06-10 08:03
will the us next strike iran on february 24 2026 et	14	$100	2,948	2,948	+0	open	—	02-24 14:27
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	4	$72	400	0	+400	open	—	06-11 12:40
will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	1	$50	125	0	+125	open	—	02-18 16:05
btc updown 15m 1772103600	5	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	02-26 11:10
btc updown 5m 1773576900	4	$16	15	9	+7	open	—	03-15 12:18
will the us next strike iran on february 25 2026 et	2	$16	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-24 18:13
btc updown 5m 1773576000	11	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	03-15 12:02
btc updown 5m 1773577500	7	$11	13	4	+9	open	—	03-15 12:29
btc updown 5m 1773568800	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	03-15 10:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	125	0	+125	open	—	06-08 19:38
btc updown 5m 1773566400	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	03-15 09:24
btc updown 5m 1773575700	7	$7	5	4	+1	open	—	03-15 11:59
btc updown 5m 1773568200	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	03-15 09:52
btc updown 5m 1773570600	7	$7	6	5	+1	open	—	03-15 10:33
btc updown 5m 1773576300	7	$7	5	4	+2	open	—	03-15 12:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 07:20:45	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	BUY	19	83¢	$16	0x282bcd…
06-12 07:19:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	BUY	72	83¢	$60	0x5a486e…
06-11 12:40:40	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xbbf43f…
06-11 01:43:19	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x571ee8…
06-10 08:03:34	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe742b3…
06-10 07:45:04	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$1	0x190278…
06-10 04:46:52	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	835	2¢	$13	0x880345…
06-08 21:22:45	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	3¢	$3	0xc8c373…
06-08 19:38:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x893832…
06-08 18:31:33	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	218	3¢	$7	0xdd6ba9…
06-08 14:18:34	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xcef47a…
06-08 14:12:31	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	4¢	$5	0x3181f6…
06-08 14:12:18	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xab3286…
06-08 00:08:40	Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0xddba1e…
06-07 19:55:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0xbfbaba…
06-07 19:54:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xfc01e5…
06-07 19:54:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x713af3…
06-07 19:54:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0xd6f150…
06-07 19:54:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x74c7db…
06-07 19:53:43	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x482715…
06-07 19:53:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xc0e8bd…
06-07 19:52:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x006637…
06-07 19:52:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xa38684…
06-07 19:52:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x64b7f3…
06-07 19:52:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0x86cfa9…
06-07 19:52:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xb1e0cc…
06-07 19:51:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x212721…
06-07 19:51:30	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0xc350d2…
06-07 19:51:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xf9c243…
06-07 19:50:57	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x0d6d0e…
06-07 19:50:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xf27682…
06-07 19:50:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x89b179…
06-07 19:50:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x2f7336…
06-07 19:49:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x06efed…
06-07 19:49:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xcb5b53…
06-07 19:49:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x3168a1…
06-07 19:48:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x6355d8…
06-07 19:48:24	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xc85fdc…
06-07 19:48:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x57d345…
06-07 19:47:42	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x805ab3…
06-07 19:47:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	413	7¢	$28	0x57a3a3…
06-07 19:37:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x40e5d8…
06-07 19:36:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xfeb6f8…
06-07 19:36:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x524b8a…
06-07 19:36:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xf539c2…
06-07 19:36:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0xe2958b…
06-07 19:36:24	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x46868a…
06-07 19:35:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x0d9f1f…
06-07 19:35:43	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x492712…
06-07 19:35:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xc911fb…
06-07 19:35:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xc4b0e3…
06-07 19:35:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x889dc1…
06-07 19:34:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x1c56d7…
06-07 19:34:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x5e609d…
06-07 19:33:57	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x5e96b1…
06-07 19:33:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x74ec6f…
06-07 19:33:30	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x4c2fb7…
06-07 19:32:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xc4093b…
06-07 19:32:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x8824f1…
06-07 19:32:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x17f9f9…
06-07 19:32:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x14b7a0…
06-07 19:31:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xee730f…
06-07 19:31:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xdf6faa…
06-07 19:31:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xed160e…
06-07 19:31:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xae0cc2…
06-07 19:31:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x4ea2d6…
06-07 19:31:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0x359e83…
06-07 19:30:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x7d7488…
06-07 19:30:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x423afc…
06-07 19:30:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0x856643…
06-07 19:30:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xc45d18…
06-07 19:29:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x8c7224…
06-07 19:29:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x0b48e4…
06-07 19:28:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x2f3ece…
06-07 19:28:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x6f8d3a…
06-07 19:28:03	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xef3cad…
06-07 19:27:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x39c04d…
06-07 19:27:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x0059d6…
06-07 19:26:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x5ecac8…
06-07 19:26:40	NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x338e1c…
06-07 19:26:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xb3cdaa…
06-07 19:26:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x07b357…
06-07 19:26:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xa0e930…
06-07 19:25:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x426f57…
06-07 19:25:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x779ac2…
06-07 19:25:10	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xe6f068…
06-07 19:24:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xb59351…
06-07 19:24:30	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x214a80…
06-07 19:24:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x6a994b…
06-07 19:23:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0x56e03e…
06-07 19:23:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x88b65f…
06-07 19:23:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x46013c…
06-07 19:23:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x90418b…
06-07 19:22:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xfe8406…
06-07 19:22:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xbd0889…
06-07 19:22:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xe9e9a4…
06-07 19:21:45	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x50945f…
06-07 19:21:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x377a69…
06-07 19:21:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x0934ed…
06-07 19:20:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xc27b3a…