Wavy-Curve — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.31K

Unrealized P&L

-$85

Hit rate

29.5%

Resolved

Trades

562

lifetime

Volume

$16.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

$843

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-13

last 07-05 07:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

70% 50% +$1,309

Other

28% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 99 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+4,792	$924	18¢	$839	$-86	07-05 07:14
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Yes	+10	$3	26¢	$3	$-1	06-08 00:08
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	48¢	$1	$-0	07-08 13:44
NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	+10	$1	6¢	$1	$-0	06-07 19:26
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+0	$-1	4¢	$0	+$1	06-07 19:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	37	$3.8K	14,435	16,752	-2,317	Yes	$-84	05-09 06:03
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	91	$2.5K	66,817	66,817	+0	open	—	03-27 20:37
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	36	$1.9K	1,338	1,338	+0	open	—	06-30 19:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$1.6K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	+$1,394	05-09 06:03
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	21	$988	1,261	0	+1,261	open	—	06-30 13:46
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	11	$935	4,852	0	+4,852	open	—	07-05 07:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	20	$912	28,101	28,601	-500	open	—	04-26 12:44
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	19	$706	4,200	4,000	+200	open	—	03-28 08:13
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	5	$534	292	292	+0	open	—	06-21 09:44
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$436	350	350	+0	open	—	04-08 07:08
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	1	$370	377	0	+377	open	—	05-29 07:10
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	7	$366	1,020	1,020	+0	open	—	03-27 07:19
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$300	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	04-01 19:55
will the us next strike iran on february 23 2026 et	7	$229	7,433	7,433	+0	open	—	02-23 13:45
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	98	$201	1,493	1,493	+0	open	—	06-07 19:55
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	3	$193	1,385	1,385	+0	open	—	03-11 11:19
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	26	$150	8,913	484	+8,429	open	—	06-23 00:37
btc updown 15m 1772104500	2	$110	134	0	+134	open	—	02-26 11:19
will the us next strike iran on february 24 2026 et	14	$100	2,948	2,948	+0	open	—	02-24 14:27
will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	1	$50	125	0	+125	open	—	02-18 16:05
btc updown 15m 1772103600	5	$22	15	15	+0	open	—	02-26 11:10
btc updown 5m 1773576900	4	$16	15	9	+7	open	—	03-15 12:18
will the us next strike iran on february 25 2026 et	2	$16	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-24 18:13
btc updown 5m 1773576000	11	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	03-15 12:02
btc updown 5m 1773577500	7	$11	13	4	+9	open	—	03-15 12:29
btc updown 5m 1773568800	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	03-15 10:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	125	0	+125	open	—	06-08 19:38
btc updown 5m 1773566400	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	03-15 09:24
btc updown 5m 1773575700	7	$7	5	4	+1	open	—	03-15 11:59
btc updown 5m 1773568200	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	03-15 09:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 13:44:14	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x1facef…
07-08 13:41:50	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x1d595b…
07-05 07:14:31	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x4fd835…
06-30 19:40:13	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	700	20¢	$140	0x200b2c…
06-30 19:38:43	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,068	19¢	$583	0x885ee7…
06-30 19:37:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	1,003	72¢	$723	0xf3c643…
06-30 13:56:37	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	158	19¢	$30	0x649567…
06-30 13:46:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	610	82¢	$500	0xbe638a…
06-28 18:50:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0xf187e4…
06-28 18:48:47	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xe0bcff…
06-28 18:47:49	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	476	21¢	$100	0x40414d…
06-28 14:05:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	112	73¢	$82	0xe7e20b…
06-28 13:38:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	70	73¢	$51	0x3dcfb8…
06-28 13:38:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0x468dd2…
06-28 13:17:26	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0xef11ec…
06-28 12:39:50	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	21¢	$6	0xcf035f…
06-28 12:22:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x9d4cae…
06-28 11:43:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x938691…
06-28 04:56:53	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xcc0931…
06-27 05:46:50	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 spread away 2pt5	England	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x43b490…
06-26 11:11:14	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xd65309…
06-26 09:01:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x3d5ee9…
06-26 08:59:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0xed3a99…
06-26 08:54:53	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x16c870…
06-26 08:53:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	47	77¢	$36	0x03ad5e…
06-26 08:17:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	63	73¢	$46	0xac9ffb…
06-26 07:29:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	35	78¢	$27	0x13fd0b…
06-26 07:14:14	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0xa87794…
06-26 07:10:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0x726ae9…
06-26 07:01:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xce1a69…
06-26 06:43:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x912002…
06-26 06:41:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	9	73¢	$7	0x1755ce…
06-26 06:34:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x245abc…
06-26 06:34:26	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x1e92de…
06-26 05:32:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x8be4a1…
06-26 05:28:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x84bbd6…
06-25 17:47:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0xa75a90…
06-25 17:46:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	47	74¢	$35	0x0ddba1…
06-25 15:05:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	124	72¢	$90	0x5f22f6…
06-25 13:18:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x551081…
06-25 12:57:05	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0xd18a1a…
06-25 12:54:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xe94e1d…
06-25 12:50:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x7af9b1…
06-25 12:41:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x48646e…
06-25 12:21:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x043d1c…
06-25 12:12:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x4d90c9…
06-25 12:04:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xae06b4…
06-25 10:58:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	BUY	42	66¢	$28	0xfc715e…
06-25 10:58:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	BUY	57	66¢	$38	0xe9e2e4…
06-25 10:58:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	BUY	1	66¢	$1	0x32d60b…
06-25 10:51:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x402cda…
06-25 10:36:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xb4377c…
06-25 10:35:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	203	74¢	$150	0x43e54e…
06-25 09:13:07	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x7a1962…
06-24 16:45:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x37930b…
06-23 11:18:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	1	68¢	$0	0xea89ca…
06-23 11:14:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x4a4ffd…
06-23 11:06:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0xbdfac8…
06-23 00:37:11	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,298	1¢	$26	0xb02009…
06-22 22:28:40	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x9b61fd…
06-22 20:02:34	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x295d3d…
06-22 19:22:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x131d31…
06-22 19:13:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x311a90…
06-22 18:34:20	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x98c795…
06-22 18:26:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x1f29cc…
06-22 15:25:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	714	70¢	$500	0xe7c7ab…
06-22 10:13:08	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0x29a3ec…
06-22 10:11:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xdc9a3a…
06-22 10:11:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xa1961d…
06-22 10:08:56	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x233684…
06-22 08:37:16	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	1¢	$0	0x35945e…
06-22 05:49:59	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	206	1¢	$1	0x22ac78…
06-22 05:49:11	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	463	1¢	$3	0x254ac3…
06-21 09:57:11	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,001	1¢	$10	0xb48bc6…
06-21 09:45:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	268	74¢	$198	0x5e0dfe…
06-21 09:44:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	SELL	292	95¢	$278	0xbc91d1…
06-21 06:59:52	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	201	1¢	$2	0x5c63ca…
06-20 09:24:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xa3e554…
06-12 07:20:45	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	BUY	19	83¢	$16	0x282bcd…
06-12 07:19:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	No	BUY	72	83¢	$60	0x5a486e…
06-11 12:40:40	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xbbf43f…
06-11 01:43:19	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x571ee8…
06-10 08:03:34	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe742b3…
06-10 07:45:04	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$1	0x190278…
06-10 04:46:52	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	835	2¢	$13	0x880345…
06-08 21:22:45	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	3¢	$3	0xc8c373…
06-08 19:38:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x893832…
06-08 18:31:33	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	218	3¢	$7	0xdd6ba9…
06-08 14:18:34	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xcef47a…
06-08 14:12:31	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	4¢	$5	0x3181f6…
06-08 14:12:18	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xab3286…
06-08 00:08:40	Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0xddba1e…
06-07 19:55:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0xbfbaba…
06-07 19:54:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xfc01e5…
06-07 19:54:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x713af3…
06-07 19:54:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0xd6f150…
06-07 19:54:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x74c7db…
06-07 19:53:43	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x482715…
06-07 19:53:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xc0e8bd…
06-07 19:52:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x006637…