Lighthearted-Sick — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$163

Unrealized P&L

+$155

Hit rate

52.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,886

lifetime

Volume

$51.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

$1.44K

8 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 07-22 16:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

91% 33% $-163

Other

9% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-1,139	$-915	70¢	$-803	+$112	07-22 08:35
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	No	+142	$117	88¢	$125	+$8	06-08 07:44
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+151	$101	76¢	$115	+$14	06-04 22:44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+145	$101	78¢	$113	+$12	06-05 06:28
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+176	$94	58¢	$103	+$9	07-22 16:38
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	+97	$88	89¢	$86	$-1	07-19 18:25
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	+86	$83	95¢	$82	$-1	06-20 12:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+14	$7	64¢	$9	+$2	06-04 23:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	30	$2.8K	1,200	2,339	-1,139	open	—	07-22 08:35
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	152	$2.6K	1,786	1,786	+0	open	—	04-06 02:25
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	49	$2.1K	1,453	1,070	+383	open	—	05-29 19:50
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	59	$2.0K	3,211	3,211	+0	open	—	04-03 15:45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	21	$2.0K	1,411	1,411	+0	Yes	+$335	05-09 13:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	24	$1.5K	1,197	1,024	+173	open	—	05-26 16:25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	50	$1.1K	842	1,073	-232	open	—	06-18 20:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	18	$1.0K	1,419	542	+877	Yes	$-483	05-08 19:18
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	32	$1.0K	1,276	789	+487	open	—	03-30 12:07
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	39	$996	1,498	1,498	+0	open	—	04-20 14:52
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	25	$977	2,736	2,279	+456	open	—	04-07 22:34
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	35	$947	818	637	+181	open	—	03-30 13:00
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	15	$895	576	576	+0	open	—	05-23 14:11
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	60	$844	720	720	+0	open	—	03-23 14:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	40	$789	1,329	1,184	+145	open	—	06-15 00:47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	5	$783	541	541	+0	Yes	$-15	05-04 18:51
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	7	$760	588	330	+258	open	—	04-20 21:29
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	13	$713	856	868	-12	open	—	04-07 23:08
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	29	$693	657	365	+292	open	—	04-19 22:05
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	71	$683	422	501	-79	open	—	03-07 03:38
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	21	$666	845	845	+0	open	—	03-26 15:22
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	14	$620	575	141	+434	open	—	05-04 21:20
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	22	$597	433	433	+0	open	—	03-12 17:53
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	12	$588	538	208	+330	open	—	04-21 20:16
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	12	$581	334	334	-0	open	—	04-17 15:01
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	6	$580	315	462	-146	open	—	06-19 02:46
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	44	$551	718	718	+0	open	—	04-22 02:03
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	13	$533	538	538	+0	open	—	04-22 14:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	11	$524	296	296	+0	open	—	05-07 09:28
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	10	$520	309	309	+0	open	—	04-09 16:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 16:38:19	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	116	57¢	$66	0xe1cb6a…
07-22 16:19:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970	Yes	SELL	1	40¢	$1	0x21985f…
07-22 14:05:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	Yes	SELL	50	55¢	$28	0xfc8bd6…
07-22 14:03:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	Yes	SELL	50	55¢	$28	0x6f7c48…
07-22 14:02:40	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	No	SELL	62	47¢	$29	0x39f0d0…
07-22 14:00:19	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	No	SELL	62	46¢	$29	0x7122ff…
07-22 08:35:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	25	72¢	$18	0x9c5ba3…
07-22 06:43:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970	Yes	BUY	21	39¢	$8	0x8da8df…
07-22 06:41:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970	Yes	BUY	9	39¢	$3	0xc6d217…
07-21 18:38:39	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	SELL	97	20¢	$20	0x27b8e3…
07-21 18:38:18	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	SELL	59	20¢	$12	0x0046cc…
07-21 17:15:18	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0x4634c2…
07-21 17:15:16	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x3668a1…
07-21 17:03:52	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0xd01d43…
07-21 17:03:40	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x46f2f8…
07-21 17:02:57	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	35	35¢	$12	0x34af02…
07-21 16:52:18	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	25	34¢	$9	0xb986c9…
07-21 05:18:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	62	64¢	$40	0x793f96…
07-21 05:17:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	62	64¢	$40	0xeb3a71…
07-20 23:38:42	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	No	SELL	0	56¢	$0	0xc1e3de…
07-20 16:21:46	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	48¢	$18	0x1b685f…
07-20 11:49:30	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	No	BUY	31	42¢	$13	0x8d2b55…
07-20 11:47:12	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	No	BUY	8	42¢	$4	0x89b5f9…
07-20 11:47:10	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	No	BUY	17	42¢	$7	0xedd6a8…
07-20 11:47:10	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	No	BUY	69	42¢	$29	0xdc1a25…
07-20 09:54:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	52	59¢	$31	0xe36c75…
07-20 09:54:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	0	59¢	$0	0xba4986…
07-19 18:25:25	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x3d6671…
07-19 16:11:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x2b6c79…
07-18 20:33:42	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	No	BUY	125	44¢	$55	0x9a9602…
07-18 17:21:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x4d3728…
07-18 17:20:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0xefbdce…
07-18 16:52:19	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xfde2eb…
07-18 16:52:19	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xe4a7b3…
07-18 16:51:52	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x8e7668…
07-18 16:51:52	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x6f9250…
07-16 21:16:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	75	77¢	$58	0xcf42f6…
07-16 20:30:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	76	57¢	$43	0xd3fa00…
07-16 15:40:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	75	77¢	$58	0xc200e4…
07-16 11:40:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0x8de274…
07-16 01:07:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	97	77¢	$75	0x29598a…
07-16 01:06:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0xf6205b…
07-16 01:06:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x923e19…
07-16 01:06:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x7c6b27…
07-16 01:06:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x59788e…
07-16 01:06:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$0	0xf66139…
07-16 01:06:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0xda1fbf…
07-16 01:06:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xcaef38…
07-16 01:06:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x6659ea…
07-16 01:06:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x3f6005…
07-16 01:06:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x160079…
07-15 22:01:28	will russia capture kupiansk by december 31 2026	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x7b11a7…
07-15 20:43:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	782	78¢	$610	0xc19588…
07-15 20:42:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	782	78¢	$610	0xcb3ca8…
07-15 12:36:44	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	No	BUY	55	65¢	$36	0x8d9d00…
07-15 11:51:23	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	No	BUY	171	41¢	$70	0xecbbd4…
07-15 11:39:23	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0xa73846…
07-15 11:39:23	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0x82c5e9…
07-14 19:55:05	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	16	88¢	$14	0x0ac9f5…
07-13 02:49:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xc0bc4e…
07-13 01:49:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xc58308…
07-13 01:47:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x82bff1…
07-13 01:45:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x139b85…
07-13 01:44:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb17421…
07-12 10:00:05	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0xa4c84d…
07-12 09:58:05	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	No	BUY	40	37¢	$15	0xe535d4…
07-12 04:46:19	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x5f37f2…
07-12 03:46:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x3483d4…
07-12 00:34:41	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xbfb8a3…
07-12 00:33:37	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x53fc84…
07-12 00:33:35	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	28	52¢	$14	0x5f5b52…
07-12 00:00:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	115	84¢	$97	0x6b4498…
07-11 22:42:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	254	84¢	$213	0x2986f8…
07-11 22:27:43	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x0db4d1…
07-11 22:23:13	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0x2615df…
07-11 22:16:52	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	No	BUY	17	53¢	$9	0x2bb67b…
07-11 19:15:47	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	No	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x572286…
07-11 19:15:28	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	No	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x5d6862…
07-11 18:34:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	122	8¢	$10	0x0e2608…
07-11 18:33:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	122	9¢	$11	0x812764…
07-11 17:22:26	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	88	40¢	$35	0x327559…
07-11 14:20:41	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	90	79¢	$71	0xa205c8…
07-11 14:18:02	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0xd7f8fc…
07-11 13:41:23	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0xd20590…
07-11 13:41:23	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0x33b829…
07-11 13:40:41	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	13	79¢	$11	0x800113…
07-11 13:31:01	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0x66bb81…
07-11 13:14:22	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0xe44e89…
07-11 13:11:02	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	24	79¢	$19	0xc9088b…
07-11 12:38:59	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	13	79¢	$10	0xa0dcfc…
07-11 12:27:40	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x6f8d8d…
07-11 12:26:41	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0xafa0ec…
07-10 22:00:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0xe0bd5d…
07-10 21:59:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0x4d910d…
07-10 21:54:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xb69c7d…
07-10 15:46:20	will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by december 31 547	No	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x3cdbea…
07-10 14:30:52	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	32	43¢	$14	0xf1ef1e…
07-10 13:59:11	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0xfb1627…
07-10 13:46:52	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0xff1ceb…
07-10 13:37:11	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	1	44¢	$0	0x0f7774…