Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$276

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

0.2%

Resolved

287

Trades

1,617

lifetime

Volume

$359.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$222

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-31

last 10-30 19:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 78 days

Categories

Politics

93% 0% -$136

Other

6% 5% -$50

Sports

1% 8% -$21

Crypto

0% 18% -$68

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Tech

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 77 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes		+14	$5	28¢	$4	-$1	10-30 19:41
Trump out as President before 2027?	No		+0	$0	96¢	$0	$0	10-27 20:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	261	$249.0K	124,665	124,665	+0	Yes	-$125	06-16 22:34
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	46	$23.8K	11,896	11,896	+0	open	—	07-04 09:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	20	$9.5K	4,766	4,766	+0	Yes	-$7	06-16 13:02
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	29	$5.6K	2,805	2,805	+0	No	-$6	06-16 13:08
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	14	$3.3K	1,642	1,642	+0	No	-$2	07-07 12:00
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	8	$3.0K	1,504	1,504	+0	open	—	08-09 08:23
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	8	$3.0K	1,503	1,502	+0	open	—	08-09 08:24
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	8	$3.0K	1,503	1,503	+0	open	—	08-09 08:23
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	11	$2.8K	1,388	1,388	+0	open	—	08-09 08:09
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$2.6K	1,310	1,310	+0	No	-$1	07-07 11:57
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	8	$2.5K	1,266	1,266	+0	open	—	08-09 08:09
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	6	$2.5K	1,243	1,243	+0	open	—	08-09 08:22
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	6	$2.4K	1,191	1,191	+0	open	—	07-07 12:04
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	8	$2.2K	1,115	1,115	+0	No	-$2	06-16 13:09
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	8	$2.1K	1,028	1,028	+0	open	—	08-09 08:06
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	6	$2.0K	1,025	1,025	+0	open	—	08-09 08:11
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	6	$2.0K	1,023	1,023	+0	open	—	08-09 08:12
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	6	$2.0K	1,022	1,022	+0	open	—	08-09 08:12
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	6	$2.0K	1,019	1,019	+0	open	—	08-09 08:10
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	6	$2.0K	1,018	1,018	+0	open	—	08-09 08:13
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	6	$2.0K	1,016	1,016	+0	open	—	08-09 08:12
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	6	$2.0K	1,007	1,007	+0	open	—	08-09 08:10
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	4	$2.0K	978	978	+0	open	—	08-09 08:21
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	4	$2.0K	977	977	+0	open	—	08-09 08:22
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	4	$2.0K	977	977	+0	open	—	08-09 08:20
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	4	$1.9K	974	974	+0	open	—	08-09 08:25
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	4	$1.9K	962	962	+0	open	—	08-09 08:20
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	18	$1.9K	942	942	+0	No	-$1	06-23 15:24
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	8	$1.4K	712	712	+0	open	—	07-07 12:08
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?	12	$1.4K	686	686	+0	No	-$1	06-23 15:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 19:41:21	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x2cfd2b…
10-30 19:39:40	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0x36339c…
10-30 19:39:24	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	13	27¢	$4	0xc1529e…
10-30 19:08:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x3573ba…
10-30 18:53:28	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x16f939…
10-30 18:49:19	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x8d2229…
10-30 18:46:28	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	4	64¢	$2	0xb2025f…
10-30 18:45:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd00134…
10-30 18:44:09	Will Werner Graf be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa0cd01…
10-30 18:43:58	Will Werner Graf be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcc2b7d…
10-28 15:24:34	Will Seoul have less than 20mm of precipitation in October?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x8d7f17…
10-28 15:24:23	Will Seoul have less than 20mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x78d2ce…
10-27 20:47:17	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xea6ab2…
10-27 20:47:09	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x76c377…
10-24 23:35:11	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xccd474…
10-24 23:34:59	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x977be6…
10-23 20:23:21	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf44a69…
10-23 20:23:12	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xeb6162…
10-22 17:10:18	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x2127f9…
10-22 17:10:09	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7af285…
10-22 17:09:57	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x34ee10…
10-22 17:09:45	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd49220…
10-21 16:18:12	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xd340b1…
10-21 16:18:00	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x19e270…
10-21 16:17:42	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xb0cba8…
10-21 16:17:30	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xdd0cd0…
10-21 16:17:11	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9acb98…
10-21 16:16:57	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x244962…
10-21 16:16:29	Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $3.00 on December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xca77cb…
10-21 16:16:12	Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $3.00 on December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x038d95…
10-21 16:15:12	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x602d80…
10-21 16:15:02	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x560e60…
10-20 10:24:11	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x6b04dd…
10-20 10:24:03	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x00873f…
10-19 16:37:05	Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x65dbca…
10-19 16:36:27	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x71080a…
10-19 16:36:14	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x63fcbe…
10-18 18:57:36	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x3b9862…
10-18 18:57:27	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x96d46b…
10-18 18:56:08	Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xb89b08…
10-17 15:03:38	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xe2376d…
10-17 15:03:24	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf0e249…
10-17 15:02:50	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x2eef07…
10-17 15:02:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xd11b7e…
10-17 15:02:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x48b80f…
10-17 15:02:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x515c60…
10-15 19:33:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xfa3c3f…
10-15 19:33:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd91820…
10-15 19:33:31	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xfb44a5…
10-15 19:33:20	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x374581…
10-14 18:22:15	Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x84cd15…
10-14 18:22:04	Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x9ff14c…
10-14 18:21:48	Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x4ece2d…
10-14 18:21:34	Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x955e03…
10-10 06:25:21	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xf55fca…
10-10 06:25:09	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x4d8227…
10-10 06:24:45	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x671b14…
10-10 06:24:28	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xd7c80f…
10-10 06:24:03	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xdbe101…
10-10 06:23:52	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x44197e…
10-10 06:23:42	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x80516e…
10-10 06:23:34	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x1c2388…
10-10 06:02:24	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x06c6a7…
10-10 06:02:13	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x879ef1…
10-09 12:33:30	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xeb736b…
10-09 12:33:12	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x5aed0c…
10-09 12:32:37	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x115064…
10-09 12:31:54	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x383ad9…
10-09 12:29:58	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xfd6a35…
10-09 12:29:49	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x3b9aea…
10-09 12:28:46	Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x47682a…
10-09 12:28:39	Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xba6049…
10-09 12:27:22	Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x8bd1fd…
10-09 12:27:12	Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcd6457…
10-09 12:26:34	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x376ec8…
10-09 12:26:25	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x47ffe2…
10-09 12:26:07	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe2285e…
10-09 12:25:58	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x261b2a…
10-09 12:24:46	Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x326e29…
10-09 12:24:37	Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2611c9…
10-09 12:24:25	Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x0234ee…
10-09 12:24:16	Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x10eb35…
10-09 12:24:06	Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x526976…
10-09 12:23:57	Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x396752…
10-09 12:22:51	Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x4b3d9a…
10-09 12:22:42	Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xd38075…
10-09 12:22:04	Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x57b691…
10-09 12:21:54	Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe34c5b…
10-09 12:21:31	Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x0a9337…
10-09 12:21:22	Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7a9e5b…
10-09 10:49:06	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x04f364…
10-09 10:48:48	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc1c91b…
10-09 10:48:28	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8f7588…
10-09 10:48:16	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x21690d…
10-09 10:47:58	T-Mobile US & SpaceX merger/acquisition announced in 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x7253a3…
10-09 10:47:46	T-Mobile US & SpaceX merger/acquisition announced in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xccadbf…
10-09 10:47:12	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x211936…
10-09 10:47:01	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0bd4c2…
10-09 10:46:21	Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x520b8b…
10-09 10:46:12	Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc7a777…