Instructive-Patience — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

2.5%

Resolved

Trades

923

lifetime

Volume

$3.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 08-14 11:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

50% 0% $-0

Politics

32% 0% $-3

Crypto

8% 0% $-0

Sports

7% 33% $-1

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	7	$127	152	145	+6	open	—	08-14 07:36
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	2	$95	118	118	+0	open	—	07-14 13:01
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	2	$94	114	114	+0	open	—	07-19 13:01
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	4	$91	83	83	+0	open	—	07-15 20:46
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	6	$74	91	91	+0	open	—	08-02 01:55
over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	2	$68	147	147	+0	open	—	07-14 11:50
will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	5	$67	132	132	+0	open	—	07-19 23:37
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	4	$65	66	66	+0	open	—	08-10 03:16
will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	4	$61	119	119	+0	open	—	07-15 08:06
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	2	$60	122	122	+0	open	—	07-27 17:31
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	5	$58	121	25	+96	open	—	07-20 12:21
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	2	$54	48	48	+0	open	—	07-13 09:31
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	2	$53	94	94	+0	open	—	07-27 17:32
untitled market 1 20260629155005352	2	$53	53	53	+0	open	—	07-14 00:06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$44	83	83	+0	Yes	$-1	04-16 18:42
over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	4	$32	34	34	+0	open	—	07-04 16:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	6	$32	134	130	+4	open	—	04-21 21:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	10	$32	41	39	+2	open	—	07-04 10:26
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	2	$31	25	25	+0	open	—	07-07 22:06
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	4	$30	67	63	+4	open	—	04-20 08:08
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	12	$29	45	45	+0	open	—	04-20 09:04
Fed rate hike in 2026?	9	$27	26	35	-9	open	—	08-04 08:37
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	4	$26	83	83	+0	open	—	04-20 09:03
col az shd 2026 04 16 az	3	$25	30	20	+10	open	—	04-15 05:42
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$23	25	25	+0	open	—	07-05 23:11
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	8	$23	32	29	+3	open	—	07-16 01:06
cs2 vit fal2 2026 06 19	2	$23	47	47	+0	open	—	06-19 20:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	4	$23	78	76	+3	open	—	04-21 16:07
will england reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149753	2	$22	32	32	+0	open	—	07-11 05:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	6	$22	36	36	+0	open	—	04-21 22:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-14 11:31:19	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	7	36¢	$3	0x98ceb0…
08-14 10:41:19	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	No	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0xfd3712…
08-14 07:36:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x1b906f…
08-13 08:56:09	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	SELL	9	53¢	$5	0x652766…
08-13 07:26:12	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x213764…
08-12 23:21:39	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xbd5a9b…
08-12 20:26:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0xade629…
08-12 20:26:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0x91046f…
08-12 20:24:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0xd5310a…
08-12 20:11:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	No	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0x96e0af…
08-12 19:11:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	No	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xee9117…
08-12 17:41:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0x4df927…
08-12 17:36:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0x51a4b6…
08-12 15:16:21	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	9	49¢	$4	0x426191…
08-12 10:01:18	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x17b234…
08-12 05:11:19	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x2050c8…
08-11 19:06:39	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	SELL	9	28¢	$2	0xfde6a4…
08-11 12:46:19	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	Yes	SELL	9	28¢	$2	0xe97b11…
08-11 09:26:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x8dd3b3…
08-11 08:01:12	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0xcc615e…
08-11 01:56:07	china x philippines military clash before 2027 20260723214807932	Yes	SELL	9	29¢	$3	0x62a09f…
08-11 01:36:07	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x584b75…
08-10 07:22:25	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0x99d72c…
08-10 03:16:54	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x8dc54b…
08-09 20:41:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	9	18¢	$2	0xbba6dd…
08-09 20:31:27	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	SELL	6	41¢	$3	0x5de5be…
08-09 18:41:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	8	19¢	$2	0xf5d0ba…
08-09 12:37:43	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	SELL	6	53¢	$3	0x1860ed…
08-09 11:26:36	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x17a078…
08-09 02:41:12	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0xfd3ffe…
08-08 22:46:33	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	SELL	7	12¢	$1	0x25333c…
08-08 19:41:57	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x406e6a…
08-08 05:01:10	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0xceb89a…
08-07 05:01:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	SELL	9	27¢	$2	0xad260b…
08-06 19:51:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	SELL	9	50¢	$5	0xbd91c9…
08-06 19:01:53	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xcf2477…
08-06 13:26:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	61¢	$4	0xc73f7a…
08-06 12:46:17	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xde52ec…
08-06 04:39:50	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0xaf3752…
08-06 04:06:03	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	7	62¢	$4	0x18e205…
08-06 01:51:14	china x philippines military clash before 2027 20260723214807932	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xe57fc3…
08-05 20:41:38	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0x174337…
08-05 10:26:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x783969…
08-05 10:06:53	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	No	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0xc27dfa…
08-05 07:36:09	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	Yes	SELL	9	48¢	$4	0xa5b0b5…
08-05 07:01:17	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x0647c2…
08-04 20:36:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x63109e…
08-04 20:26:29	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x2d0cbd…
08-04 13:56:17	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x765a06…
08-04 13:26:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x993690…
08-04 12:21:18	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xee5f96…
08-04 08:37:17	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	8	32¢	$2	0x3f5124…
08-03 05:16:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	7	48¢	$3	0x68d2c7…
08-02 04:56:08	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x8e7599…
08-02 03:17:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	SELL	9	53¢	$5	0x996d55…
08-02 02:26:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0x23d557…
08-02 01:55:59	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	9	35¢	$3	0xffcf6e…
08-01 19:26:30	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0x382e6e…
08-01 19:21:36	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0x100437…
08-01 19:01:29	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	29¢	$2	0x438160…
08-01 13:21:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x71ba3b…
08-01 10:56:18	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	No	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x60a697…
08-01 07:11:14	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x7e2a1b…
07-31 21:36:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x1ed218…
07-31 20:37:59	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x6ea4fe…
07-31 07:31:17	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	Yes	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0xcc9b55…
07-29 20:31:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x17c920…
07-29 10:41:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0x7f4178…
07-28 18:51:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xcf70c7…
07-28 01:50:58	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x383508…
07-27 19:26:04	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xfd14e5…
07-27 19:00:55	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xa348ba…
07-27 17:32:16	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	SELL	94	4¢	$4	0x4c202b…
07-27 17:31:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	122	10¢	$12	0x285de6…
07-27 17:31:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	22¢	$2	0xd027df…
07-22 07:31:03	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	7	42¢	$3	0x1eca3c…
07-21 18:51:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	104	45¢	$47	0x6a3582…
07-21 11:03:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	6	44¢	$3	0x985cbc…
07-21 05:36:13	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	44¢	$4	0x6c71c5…
07-20 13:01:18	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	94	52¢	$49	0xa42516…
07-20 12:21:12	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	96	50¢	$48	0x0ef29e…
07-19 23:37:36	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	No	SELL	32	13¢	$4	0x7479cf…
07-19 23:22:15	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	No	SELL	25	14¢	$3	0xf7e5af…
07-19 22:31:49	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x1d78b3…
07-19 22:31:39	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xdbc5d0…
07-19 19:36:39	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0x5e45f4…
07-19 15:56:16	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	No	SELL	9	16¢	$2	0x29aa27…
07-19 15:51:21	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	No	SELL	66	16¢	$11	0x33a439…
07-19 15:06:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	122	39¢	$48	0xed346f…
07-19 13:01:09	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	114	41¢	$46	0xe11575…
07-19 11:51:13	wta kuderme korneev 2026 07 20	Alina Korneeva	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x1fe54e…
07-19 11:36:18	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0x296d16…
07-19 03:22:28	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	No	BUY	132	36¢	$47	0x599c5e…
07-18 19:46:27	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	6	59¢	$3	0xbde3ba…
07-18 18:56:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x9adc78…
07-18 14:11:13	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	SELL	8	42¢	$3	0x546b4b…
07-18 10:26:09	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	9	39¢	$3	0x77541a…
07-17 21:16:28	will the houthis successfully target shipping by august 31 2026 20260708165455694	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x182640…
07-17 16:31:16	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	Yes	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0x8d4f9e…
07-17 16:21:18	over 35m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325653 212	Yes	SELL	9	15¢	$1	0xa63787…