Soft-Elephant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$77

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

35.6%

Resolved

Trades

916

lifetime

Volume

$18.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$113

1 position

First seen

2026-01-24

last 06-05 00:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

47% 50% $-15

Crypto

25% — —

Other

20% — —

Sports

8% 29% $-62

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes		+160	$106	70¢	$113	+$7	05-28 09:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	10	$2.1K	1,400	1,400	+0	open	—	05-27 03:58
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	8	$1.1K	1,167	1,450	-284	open	—	06-01 14:17
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	32	$1.1K	1,019	822	+198	open	—	05-23 17:07
Nothing Ever Happens: May	20	$802	683	594	+89	open	—	05-27 04:10
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	5	$647	395	395	+0	open	—	01-29 17:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$499	500	450	+50	open	—	05-24 03:59
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	10	$468	356	356	+0	open	—	01-31 20:30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	8	$316	780	180	+600	open	—	05-06 06:15
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	21	$283	1,395	1,745	-350	open	—	03-27 12:29
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	37	$252	3,800	2,789	+1,011	open	—	03-22 21:27
bitcoin up or down february 4 9am et	6	$250	350	0	+350	open	—	02-04 14:44
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	10	$240	340	200	+140	open	—	04-19 16:32
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	2	$234	130	130	+0	open	—	03-05 00:57
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	3	$232	250	0	+250	open	—	02-13 22:18
will israel strike gaza on january 26 2026	4	$221	142	142	+0	open	—	01-28 17:09
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	6	$214	243	229	+14	open	—	02-28 06:17
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	12	$186	256	256	+0	open	—	03-26 08:48
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	6	$178	348	69	+279	open	—	05-30 13:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$177	182	182	+0	open	—	02-28 16:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	5	$164	200	0	+200	open	—	04-08 21:14
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	5	$159	138	138	+0	open	—	02-01 21:39
us strike on somalia by february 7	5	$157	113	63	+50	open	—	02-02 22:48
bitcoin up or down on february 17	11	$154	168	168	+0	open	—	02-17 13:31
bitcoin up or down february 5 7pm et	4	$131	300	100	+200	open	—	02-06 00:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	8	$126	120	100	+20	open	—	04-28 14:07
will israel strike gaza on january 25 2026	5	$125	102	102	+0	open	—	01-26 08:56
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase january 27 february 2	4	$124	137	137	+0	open	—	02-01 20:16
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$123	410	0	+410	No	$-123	04-15 19:39
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	1	$120	179	0	+179	open	—	06-05 00:45
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	3	$113	120	120	+0	open	—	01-31 20:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 00:45:06	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	179	67¢	$120	0x106869…
06-02 06:08:42	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x7f6864…
06-02 06:05:22	Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	62	64¢	$40	0x979970…
06-01 14:17:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	824	34¢	$282	0x64903a…
06-01 14:14:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	62	32¢	$20	0x37ec94…
06-01 14:11:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	886	42¢	$371	0x5d8058…
06-01 13:49:03	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	565	30¢	$171	0x44fa6c…
05-31 16:51:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	170	92¢	$156	0x0a855f…
05-31 15:46:03	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xbd179c…
05-30 13:58:50	Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	48	15¢	$7	0xd565ba…
05-29 23:01:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	63	74¢	$47	0x345ba7…
05-29 23:00:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	74¢	$27	0x106198…
05-28 10:24:43	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0xb60f05…
05-28 09:08:08	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	BUY	160	66¢	$106	0x28669e…
05-28 08:29:47	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	260	13¢	$33	0x5271ef…
05-28 07:11:09	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x1610a2…
05-28 06:51:27	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xc4aac0…
05-28 04:59:27	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	97	20¢	$19	0x49e5c9…
05-28 04:06:03	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	103	20¢	$21	0xe197e0…
05-27 04:10:07	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	70	75¢	$52	0x56278d…
05-27 04:00:23	Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0xae9778…
05-27 04:00:03	Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x96f74f…
05-27 03:58:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	600	100¢	$599	0xce3abb…
05-26 19:24:02	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x26409f…
05-26 19:17:35	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x8e5f51…
05-26 19:12:41	Spread: Thunder (-4.5)	Spurs	BUY	40	52¢	$21	0x8d2403…
05-26 10:12:13	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x729400…
05-26 09:29:59	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0xd02130…
05-26 09:29:07	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xc4c672…
05-26 09:27:18	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x6fd112…
05-25 18:13:12	Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	SELL	53	30¢	$16	0x202f2b…
05-25 08:28:36	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	31	77¢	$24	0x4847dd…
05-25 08:28:22	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	69	77¢	$53	0xfa289d…
05-25 04:18:46	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	SELL	205	0¢	$0	0x5120e2…
05-24 22:11:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xb6268a…
05-24 22:11:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x810d9c…
05-24 22:09:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x924077…
05-24 17:49:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0xbd462e…
05-24 17:08:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0xf66c11…
05-24 16:32:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	600	87¢	$522	0xc871b2…
05-24 16:21:14	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0x47703e…
05-24 16:21:04	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5	Over	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0x183463…
05-24 10:15:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0xea533f…
05-24 10:15:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0xe6c811…
05-24 06:46:01	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	40	15¢	$6	0x4587e8…
05-24 03:59:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	350	37¢	$129	0x930b42…
05-23 22:23:51	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	22	37¢	$8	0x577e47…
05-23 22:22:06	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	54	37¢	$20	0x21f722…
05-23 22:17:29	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	75	37¢	$28	0xa1d1a1…
05-23 22:16:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xfd352b…
05-23 22:16:56	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	149	37¢	$55	0xfb5b10…
05-23 21:17:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	68¢	$34	0xa94a0c…
05-23 21:02:42	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	49	40¢	$20	0xe8a519…
05-23 21:02:25	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0x7e2a08…
05-23 21:00:33	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x83859e…
05-23 20:54:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0x8893f9…
05-23 20:51:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	59¢	$78	0xc6a915…
05-23 20:48:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	59¢	$36	0x332a38…
05-23 20:48:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x9d045c…
05-23 20:40:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0x3cf019…
05-23 20:40:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0x0ec689…
05-23 20:31:39	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xfe753e…
05-23 20:25:59	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	63	61¢	$38	0xeb0e49…
05-23 20:25:05	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	37	61¢	$23	0x0ec0cd…
05-23 19:28:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x790ab0…
05-23 17:07:46	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0xde8107…
05-23 09:26:40	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	52	43¢	$23	0xb38221…
05-23 09:26:40	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	48	43¢	$20	0xa0de53…
05-21 17:21:46	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	196	23¢	$45	0xddbe87…
05-21 16:54:59	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x259c66…
05-21 16:45:13	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0xf54606…
05-21 16:44:54	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x833d68…
05-21 15:15:21	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	114	72¢	$82	0xb41445…
05-19 20:26:16	Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x244647…
05-19 09:30:20	Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0xb444ea…
05-19 07:41:05	Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	241	2¢	$5	0x1715dc…
05-19 06:32:15	Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	SELL	16	55¢	$9	0x6e860d…
05-19 01:50:51	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	92	65¢	$60	0x0e621c…
05-19 01:49:46	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0xca806f…
05-18 23:41:58	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x16802d…
05-18 23:40:32	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0x5747ab…
05-18 23:21:59	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x220a54…
05-18 23:21:47	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xffc759…
05-18 23:07:57	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	2	64¢	$2	0xf79de8…
05-18 23:01:43	Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0x1ce9f1…
05-18 23:01:41	Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	SELL	89	4¢	$4	0xec16d6…
05-18 22:59:31	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	69	64¢	$44	0x578d92…
05-18 22:55:19	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0xbca5ef…
05-18 22:41:21	Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x946fc0…
05-18 22:39:26	Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	BUY	253	1¢	$3	0xabfc3f…
05-18 22:15:11	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0xb36c39…
05-18 21:53:35	Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xaa5942…
05-18 20:29:24	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0x4056e0…
05-18 19:52:15	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x99b013…
05-18 19:48:01	Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x283b05…
05-17 23:38:49	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	22	60¢	$14	0x0b12e1…
05-17 23:37:04	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x13500b…
05-17 22:33:19	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xfdf1d3…
05-17 21:36:32	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	137	61¢	$83	0xd775de…
05-17 21:26:21	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	63	61¢	$39	0x73fb16…