Low-Thrill — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

13.8%

Resolved

Trades

591

lifetime

Volume

$5.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-26

last 06-30 02:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

58% — —

Sports

17% 0% $-0

Other

13% 100% +$0

Politics

12% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No		+7	$5	76¢	$5	+$0	06-04 21:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	22	$150	101	101	+0	open	—	03-19 20:42
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	20	$144	87	100	-14	open	—	03-19 21:14
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	15	$100	53	53	+0	open	—	03-14 00:04
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	15	$96	67	67	+0	open	—	02-19 03:45
will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	13	$90	47	47	+0	open	—	03-11 15:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	15	$88	78	78	+0	Yes	$-0	02-19 16:28
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	12	$66	52	52	+0	open	—	02-25 13:46
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	11	$66	34	34	+0	open	—	02-28 20:12
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	8	$59	47	47	+0	open	—	02-16 19:59
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	8	$52	33	33	+0	open	—	03-05 20:45
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$40	24	24	-0	open	—	02-28 15:22
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	5	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	03-13 23:03
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$38	20	20	+0	No	$-0	03-19 12:24
bitcoin up or down march 6 4pm et	2	$36	18	18	+0	open	—	03-06 22:04
nba was bos 2026 03 14	2	$35	36	0	+36	open	—	03-14 19:16
lal rea ray 2026 02 01 ray	5	$35	23	23	+0	open	—	02-01 13:56
bitcoin up or down march 5 10am et	2	$34	17	17	+0	open	—	03-05 15:59
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$34	17	17	+0	open	—	02-14 03:11
bitcoin up or down march 5 4am et	2	$32	16	16	+0	open	—	03-05 10:03
bitcoin up or down march 5 12am et	2	$30	15	15	+0	open	—	03-05 06:00
GTA VI released before June 2026?	4	$24	12	12	+0	open	—	02-27 10:15
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	03-19 16:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$22	40	40	+0	open	—	06-14 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET	2	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	05-14 18:58
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$21	19	19	+0	open	—	06-14 21:40
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	2	$21	15	15	+0	open	—	06-09 21:47
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	02-19 15:15
bitcoin up or down march 6 6pm et	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-07 00:02
bitcoin up or down march 11 7am et	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	03-11 11:54
bitcoin up or down march 8 3am et	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	03-08 07:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 02:54:58	mlb mia col 2026 06 29 spread away 2pt5	Colorado Rockies	BUY	13	67¢	$9	0x5a5006…
06-27 19:11:19	mlb nyy bos 2026 06 27 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xcfd54c…
06-24 02:48:23	mlb bos col 2026 06 23 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x551f60…
06-24 01:51:35	mlb chc nym 2026 06 22	Chicago Cubs	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0x87e1b8…
06-24 00:42:35	mlb phi wsh 2026 06 23 total 9pt5	Under	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xd68a67…
06-22 11:56:19	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	8	81¢	$7	0x323bc0…
06-21 17:58:28	mlb mil atl 2026 06 21	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	12	61¢	$7	0x16037a…
06-21 03:42:17	mlb pit col 2026 06 20	Colorado Rockies	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0xb9a8f7…
06-20 13:13:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0x0d522f…
06-20 05:08:13	mlb bal lad 2026 06 19	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xfbb83f…
06-20 02:41:37	mlb stl kc 2026 06 19 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x4a924a…
06-20 02:40:23	mlb stl kc 2026 06 19 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x08fd09…
06-18 23:50:19	mlb stl kc 2026 06 18	Kansas City Royals	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xa919f3…
06-18 16:14:47	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	30	20¢	$6	0xd25ad2…
06-18 15:15:13	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x96b17f…
06-17 18:23:34	mlb sd stl 2026 06 17 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x0f926c…
06-17 13:48:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	14	44¢	$6	0xbaa662…
06-17 01:44:44	mlb laa ari 2026 06 16	Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xedbc48…
06-15 09:33:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x91eb3d…
06-14 23:05:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x47d5eb…
06-14 21:59:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	40	29¢	$12	0xc0928b…
06-14 21:40:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	19	62¢	$12	0x913017…
06-14 21:24:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x49ab4c…
06-14 10:11:04	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	14	63¢	$9	0x52f8e3…
06-13 19:52:46	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	12	53¢	$6	0x82107a…
06-13 16:51:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x24d5a2…
06-13 09:18:30	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbe4c9a…
06-13 07:45:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	41¢	$4	0x971a76…
06-11 18:08:40	mlb ari mia 2026 06 11 spread home 2pt5	Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY	9	61¢	$6	0x5ad39b…
06-09 21:47:58	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	73¢	$11	0xde0d3f…
06-08 03:26:30	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x1c6b05…
06-07 20:29:03	mlb nym sd 2026 06 07	San Diego Padres	BUY	26	36¢	$9	0xf13408…
06-07 20:21:54	mlb bal tor 2026 06 07 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x06d786…
06-07 03:34:37	mlb mil col 2026 06 06 spread away 3pt5	Colorado Rockies	BUY	19	38¢	$7	0x888da4…
06-06 17:22:46	wnba sea min 2026 06 06 total 160pt5	Over	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x676cab…
06-06 02:52:55	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 3pt5	Knicks	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x8aafed…
06-05 01:57:30	mlb tor atl 2026 06 04 spread away 3pt5	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x7715af…
06-04 21:36:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x99c46c…
06-04 00:41:45	mlb sd phi 2026 06 03 spread home 1pt5	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x7ad6f9…
06-03 01:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$13	0x1e13de…
06-01 21:52:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xcc535b…
06-01 10:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x65e8b7…
05-31 23:27:17	Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xef5a27…
05-31 19:08:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x545c53…
05-31 07:50:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x6e42b0…
05-30 10:01:45	Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x39c19c…
05-29 21:51:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa80118…
05-29 03:51:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	15	98¢	$14	0x51b44e…
05-28 20:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x9c60be…
05-27 16:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	18	92¢	$16	0xcdfca3…
05-22 22:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x7be76a…
05-20 07:51:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x5252d9…
05-20 05:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x9be92f…
05-20 01:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	16	89¢	$14	0x738a0d…
05-19 20:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x318e27…
05-19 07:50:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xb9fcbf…
05-18 11:50:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x05e190…
05-18 07:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x3a5874…
05-18 01:50:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x54366a…
05-17 10:50:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x66e6f1…
05-17 03:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf92ecf…
05-16 09:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x14d856…
05-15 22:50:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1d31ee…
05-15 14:50:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	93¢	$6	0xf81846…
05-15 09:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb4722a…
05-15 08:51:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xa28066…
05-15 06:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x99f80c…
05-15 03:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x257427…
05-15 01:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x2111c4…
05-14 18:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET	Down	SELL	13	74¢	$9	0x16338b…
05-14 18:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$12	0x267e05…
05-13 18:03:40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13?	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xce7608…
04-26 12:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x384700…
04-26 03:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xdf071e…
04-25 17:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8eae84…
04-25 13:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x769685…
04-25 12:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1863bb…
04-25 05:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xa2bafd…
04-24 23:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9a1aa9…
04-24 11:50:38	bitcoin up or down april 24 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x15c23d…
04-24 09:50:40	bitcoin up or down april 24 2026 5am et	Down	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x434b02…
04-24 08:51:42	bitcoin up or down april 24 2026 4am et	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xdb739a…
04-24 03:50:26	bitcoin up or down april 23 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x6be9b1…
04-23 08:50:44	bitcoin up or down april 23 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x43d08a…
04-23 02:51:44	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 10pm et	Down	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x180328…
04-23 00:56:14	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x86a5b8…
04-22 22:52:32	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 6pm et	Down	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfc75f5…
04-22 20:55:28	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 4pm et	Down	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf62421…
04-22 19:55:32	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7dac22…
04-22 18:05:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x990687…
04-22 05:50:34	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xab7c7c…
04-21 21:50:56	bitcoin up or down april 21 2026 5pm et	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x63b17a…
04-21 17:54:38	bitcoin up or down april 21 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0xda6eea…
04-21 12:50:16	bitcoin up or down april 21 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc4d384…
04-21 06:50:42	bitcoin up or down april 21 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaf436f…
04-21 00:51:12	bitcoin up or down april 20 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0xff8c1c…
04-20 21:50:18	bitcoin up or down april 20 2026 5pm et	Down	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x99cc5b…
04-20 19:58:04	bitcoin up or down april 20 2026 3pm et	Down	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0x1d2fcb…
04-20 16:50:16	bitcoin up or down april 20 2026 12pm et	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x0a95d7…
04-20 11:54:32	bitcoin up or down april 20 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xedc8f6…