Gigantic-Armrest — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$366

Unrealized P&L

+$285

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

1,551 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$29.9K

$1.17M lifetime

Avg / trade

$751

Open exposure

$7.28K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 10-31 04:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

43% 98% +$1,328

Crypto

33% 97% +$540

Politics

23% 100% +$544

Sports

0% 75% -$78

Tech

0% 100% +$34

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+2,832	$2,741	97¢	$2.7K	+$7	10-28 23:30
Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	+2,287	$2,218	96¢	$2.2K	-$16	10-30 11:57
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+1,360	$1,302	97¢	$1.3K	+$17	10-25 00:10
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,049	$738	97¢	$1.0K	+$277	10-31 04:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump out as President by April 30?	68	$186.2K	104,607	82,405	+22,202	No	+$343	04-28 14:51
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	55	$103.3K	52,131	52,131	+0	Yes	+$127	04-20 11:30
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	103	$96.3K	48,551	48,551	-0	No	+$56	04-15 05:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	65	$71.0K	42,410	28,976	+13,434	No	+$133	04-30 05:29
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	107	$67.6K	33,937	33,927	+10	No	+$38	04-23 13:01
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	30	$56.2K	28,186	28,177	+8	No	+$42	04-14 01:20
will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	51	$50.7K	27,072	23,729	+3,343	No	+$30	03-27 11:36
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	114	$39.5K	20,112	20,112	+0	No	+$134	06-30 03:59
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	7	$31.6K	29,206	2,402	+26,804	No	+$30	03-29 09:20
trump out as president by march 31	4	$31.0K	15,549	15,549	+0	No	+$16	03-28 20:09
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	24	$28.0K	14,175	14,163	+12	No	+$28	04-20 11:28
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	4	$27.2K	13,841	13,399	+442	No	+$17	03-29 11:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	26	$24.4K	12,306	12,306	+0	No	+$71	04-30 03:06
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	10	$22.8K	11,488	11,488	+0	No	+$91	04-30 16:30
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	114	$20.8K	11,120	11,120	-0	open	—	06-02 14:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	37	$16.5K	8,274	8,274	+0	No	+$34	05-22 10:19
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	28	$15.2K	7,607	7,606	+0	No	+$15	03-26 10:25
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	32	$14.7K	7,371	7,370	+0	No	+$29	03-29 10:58
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$13.1K	6,598	6,591	+8	No	+$92	04-14 19:43
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$11.5K	11,531	0	+11,531	Yes	+$12	04-14 15:12
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	29	$11.2K	5,661	5,661	+0	No	+$19	06-27 09:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	8	$10.2K	5,371	5,371	+0	No	+$161	05-06 10:03
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	15	$10.0K	5,777	4,728	+1,049	open	—	10-31 04:33
will bitcoin dip to 35k in march 2026	25	$8.0K	3,985	3,985	+0	No	+$5	03-27 17:21
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	2	$7.9K	3,943	3,943	+0	No	+$4	05-23 05:52
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	35	$7.8K	3,967	3,967	+0	No	+$74	08-12 09:09
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	84	$7.6K	4,072	4,072	+0	open	—	05-18 04:21
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	5	$7.4K	3,697	3,696	+1	No	+$4	04-18 17:03
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	10	$7.2K	3,613	3,611	+2	Yes	+$17	04-14 14:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	6	$6.4K	3,209	3,208	+0	No	+$43	04-27 23:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 04:33:16	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	170	97¢	$166	0xa7a99e…
10-30 11:57:19	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	2,287	97¢	$2,218	0xc8df8b…
10-30 11:56:36	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	2,373	83¢	$1,970	0x0dfdbe…
10-30 03:04:52	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$10	0xced3d9…
10-30 00:47:40	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	270	97¢	$263	0xfdc853…
10-28 23:30:01	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	327	97¢	$317	0x2068b5…
10-28 23:29:29	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	681	97¢	$660	0x7cec28…
10-28 23:29:20	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,825	97¢	$1,764	0x197fbd…
10-28 18:00:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,620	100¢	$2,615	0x71440e…
10-28 16:40:07	Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	127	100¢	$127	0x167dd0…
10-28 11:34:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,620	95¢	$2,492	0x5e74cc…
10-28 11:10:08	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,542	98¢	$2,491	0x70ecc3…
10-25 00:10:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	269	95¢	$256	0xbde9c6…
10-23 04:47:20	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	75	98¢	$73	0xb966d6…
10-23 04:47:20	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0xa248ed…
10-23 04:47:20	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x297cca…
10-23 02:46:30	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x04d77c…
10-23 02:46:29	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	95	98¢	$93	0x5b5f05…
10-22 23:30:56	Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	127	99¢	$126	0xf37de6…
10-22 22:16:14	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0x414b74…
10-22 22:01:50	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0xf615c5…
10-22 22:01:50	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x64bf7f…
10-22 22:00:59	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xf25d06…
10-22 22:00:57	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x8994e7…
10-22 21:24:06	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x6c5d6b…
09-19 03:18:55	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	467	88¢	$411	0xc564d3…
09-19 03:14:03	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	219	88¢	$193	0x5823b8…
09-19 03:11:42	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	388	90¢	$349	0x5ba7d7…
09-18 21:02:16	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	998	96¢	$957	0xa22703…
09-18 13:25:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1,091	96¢	$1,046	0x9a6b13…
09-18 03:26:40	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	2,751	99¢	$2,734	0x4803bf…
08-18 07:12:52	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,745	98¢	$1,711	0xca3a9c…
08-12 13:00:34	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,354	96¢	$3,206	0xd7afa8…
08-12 09:09:39	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	766	100¢	$762	0xfc8918…
08-12 09:06:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xf49f5c…
08-12 09:06:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xa38261…
08-12 09:06:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0x969bf1…
08-12 09:06:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x8ec24d…
08-12 09:06:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0x632b0c…
08-12 09:06:06	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x47e868…
08-12 09:04:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	343	100¢	$341	0xce871a…
08-12 09:02:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9bbbb0…
08-12 08:42:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xc41894…
08-12 08:38:54	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x12c6d0…
08-12 08:37:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x9459f3…
08-12 08:34:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	418	100¢	$415	0xfef398…
08-12 08:26:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x4c7795…
08-12 08:22:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x85d3e7…
08-12 08:21:55	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x379750…
08-12 08:21:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xa98941…
08-12 08:19:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xfab49d…
08-12 08:19:00	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xde34cf…
08-12 08:18:55	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x2f6605…
08-12 08:18:52	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x6311e6…
08-12 08:18:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbae851…
08-12 08:18:42	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xbcbc81…
08-12 08:18:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc2c5e1…
08-12 08:18:36	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb70615…
08-12 08:16:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xbca46f…
08-12 08:12:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	252	100¢	$251	0xec5161…
08-12 08:05:16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xc45fb4…
08-12 08:01:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	357	100¢	$355	0xa287b9…
08-11 23:45:21	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0xe67692…
08-11 11:08:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	134	99¢	$133	0x0214c3…
07-29 18:57:45	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	626	94¢	$592	0xafffb3…
07-29 18:37:44	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	443	99¢	$438	0xa7ecba…
07-29 18:37:44	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	157	99¢	$155	0x0d2473…
07-15 02:26:44	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	2,751	94¢	$2,597	0x81208e…
07-14 20:06:43	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	1,057	100¢	$1,055	0xe33322…
07-14 20:06:23	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	1,139	100¢	$1,136	0xd9888d…
07-13 02:25:46	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	78	86¢	$67	0xa1626f…
07-13 02:02:43	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	229	86¢	$197	0xd3b6b3…
07-09 23:27:17	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	266	98¢	$261	0x22597b…
07-09 21:30:13	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	261	100¢	$260	0x1d3ff2…
07-06 12:28:14	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	1,230	93¢	$1,144	0xef7f97…
07-06 00:40:04	Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 England?	No	BUY	1,147	89¢	$1,021	0x6d8793…
07-06 00:38:10	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1,086	94¢	$1,026	0xa1a912…
07-03 01:00:56	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,086	98¢	$1,066	0xd97746…
07-03 00:56:38	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0xa08496…
07-03 00:44:07	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	94¢	$936	0xad5aec…
07-03 00:34:34	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	124	94¢	$117	0x0c9024…
07-03 00:23:26	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	1,139	99¢	$1,126	0x8f4351…
07-03 00:22:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	134	97¢	$130	0x928a07…
07-02 11:55:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	211	100¢	$211	0x0fa9fc…
07-02 06:07:02	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	658	99¢	$653	0xc15f82…
07-02 06:06:29	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	401	99¢	$398	0xc62fea…
07-02 05:58:02	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	261	98¢	$255	0x13dc18…
07-01 12:33:04	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	413	99¢	$407	0x2b62f8…
07-01 04:49:40	hyperliquid listed on binance by june 30 2026	No	SELL	654	100¢	$652	0x999b44…
06-30 11:13:17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	211	99¢	$210	0xe95494…
06-30 06:46:32	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	600	97¢	$584	0x9c0e6c…
06-30 03:59:56	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0x45f3a4…
06-30 02:22:46	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$2	0xea3f62…
06-30 02:15:53	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	734	100¢	$733	0x5c441c…
06-30 02:00:58	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xbeaa55…
06-30 01:03:29	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xb4cb0e…
06-30 00:44:11	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	1,057	98¢	$1,036	0x4e2e48…
06-30 00:40:11	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	373	92¢	$342	0xd1458c…
06-30 00:40:11	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	390	92¢	$359	0x7eebb8…
06-30 00:40:11	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	352	92¢	$324	0x2aa39a…