Darling-Demand — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$476

Unrealized P&L

+$216

Hit rate

94.3%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

3,424 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$17.3K

$478.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

$140

Open exposure

$1.44K

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-25

last 09-11 10:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 124 days

Categories

Other

61% 90% -$3,103

Politics

26% 87% -$1,241

Sports

6% 91% -$76

Crypto

5% 91% +$436

Tech

2% 94% +$375

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	+400	$248	93¢	$372	+$124	08-13 12:19
tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	+400	$243	88¢	$354	+$111	08-13 12:19
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+330	$274	96¢	$317	+$43	08-12 14:06
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	+147	$137	99¢	$147	+$9	05-03 15:23
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+300	$219	47¢	$141	-$78	08-13 12:20
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?	No	+108	$100	99¢	$107	+$7	06-08 10:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	6	$29.2K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	09-11 10:27
iran strike on israel by february 28	5	$27.5K	15,250	15,250	+0	Yes	-$942	02-28 18:06
netanyahu out by march 31 854	30	$5.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$43	04-01 01:56
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	2	$4.8K	2,500	2,500	+0	No	+$181	09-11 10:28
will jessie buckley win best actress at the 98th academy awards	28	$3.7K	1,900	1,900	+0	Yes	+$82	03-16 02:33
will ethan hawke win best actor at the 98th academy awards	58	$3.4K	1,464	1,961	-497	No	+$49	03-16 02:01
will leonardo dicaprio win best actor at the 98th academy awards	23	$3.1K	1,600	1,600	+0	No	+$86	03-16 02:29
will frankenstein win best costume design at the 98th academy awards	26	$3.1K	1,600	1,600	+0	Yes	+$111	03-15 23:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	2	$3.1K	3,112	0	+3,112	No	+$54	04-19 04:31
will paul thomas anderson win best director at the 98th academy awards	24	$3.1K	1,600	1,600	+0	Yes	+$100	03-16 02:22
will frankenstein win best production design at the 98th academy awards	26	$3.0K	1,600	1,600	+0	Yes	+$144	03-16 01:11
will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	43	$3.0K	1,527	1,527	+0	No	+$54	03-16 02:06
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	16	$3.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$17	04-24 04:58
Netanyahu out by June 30?	1	$2.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$150	05-01 07:15
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	1	$2.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$150	05-10 03:15
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	9	$2.8K	1,414	1,414	+0	No	+$14	03-29 00:51
will inga ibsdotter lilleaas win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	12	$2.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	No	+$20	03-15 23:28
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	18	$2.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	No	+$21	03-04 19:35
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	11	$2.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	Yes	+$31	03-18 18:04
will trump issue a gold card by march 31	18	$2.6K	1,305	1,305	+0	No	+$43	04-01 06:36
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	11	$2.5K	1,300	1,300	+0	No	+$57	03-15 11:15
will hezbollah disarm by march 31	16	$2.5K	1,300	1,300	+0	No	+$88	03-19 23:26
will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	40	$2.4K	918	1,462	-545	No	+$15	03-16 00:32
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by march 31	13	$2.1K	1,088	1,088	+0	No	+$46	03-30 21:56
will hamas agree to disarm by march 31 966	10	$2.1K	1,100	1,100	+0	No	+$83	04-01 03:22
nba 2025 26 southeast division winner atlanta hawks	71	$2.0K	1,340	1,275	+66	Yes	-$386	04-05 03:52
will movie a win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards 551	18	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$29	03-16 00:26
will the fed cutpausepause in the next three decisions decjanmar	11	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$29	03-18 18:07
will anish giri win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	13	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$23	04-12 21:48
Will UK strike Iran by April 30?	9	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$29	04-27 13:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-11 10:29:39	Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	No	SELL	500	72¢	$360	0x7ba8e0…
09-11 10:28:52	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	93¢	$465	0xca0d15…
09-11 10:28:49	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	1,000	69¢	$691	0x1260cf…
09-11 10:28:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2,500	99¢	$2,481	0x64c49b…
09-11 10:27:24	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	6,500	98¢	$6,402	0x0eed84…
08-13 12:22:03	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	No	BUY	500	73¢	$364	0x364ceb…
08-13 12:20:15	Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	73¢	$219	0x236fac…
08-13 12:19:52	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	400	68¢	$272	0x51ca7e…
08-13 12:19:16	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	400	62¢	$248	0xd4f73a…
08-13 12:19:00	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	400	61¢	$243	0xa8a167…
08-13 12:13:21	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	1,000	79¢	$789	0x5b0966…
08-12 14:23:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0xdf81be…
08-12 14:22:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x9028ac…
08-12 14:22:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x528d7c…
08-12 14:21:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x155bfc…
08-12 14:21:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x271f00…
08-12 14:20:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x45a25e…
08-12 14:19:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0x7ddf43…
08-12 14:19:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0xf5177d…
08-12 14:19:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	33	67¢	$22	0x8e935c…
08-12 14:18:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x6a3d03…
08-12 14:17:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$4	0x049f95…
08-12 14:10:06	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0x949eda…
08-12 14:09:36	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	600	98¢	$591	0x8828bb…
08-12 14:09:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	97	96¢	$93	0x5ee965…
08-12 14:08:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	500	97¢	$485	0x7e1810…
08-12 14:06:19	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	330	83¢	$274	0x078d48…
08-12 14:05:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	361	67¢	$242	0xe99c88…
08-03 20:39:50	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	400	90¢	$360	0xf8c9fa…
08-03 17:45:35	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	250	61¢	$152	0x6817bb…
07-31 14:39:53	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x9a3a4e…
07-31 14:38:39	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,500	91¢	$1,360	0x18f357…
07-31 14:36:12	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	500	89¢	$445	0x60fc10…
07-23 20:05:46	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	BUY	116	94¢	$109	0x1ad719…
07-21 10:43:22	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	500	97¢	$484	0xff5c66…
07-21 10:42:21	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	250	98¢	$245	0x6900fa…
07-19 12:05:34	us x cuba economic deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	227	98¢	$222	0xe00239…
07-19 12:05:21	Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	350	97¢	$340	0x9cd446…
07-19 12:04:55	Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	300	97¢	$291	0x2efe13…
07-19 12:04:46	Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	300	97¢	$290	0x2f7a50…
07-19 12:03:58	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$489	0xec1a33…
07-19 12:03:30	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Yes	BUY	250	96¢	$240	0x19f89f…
07-19 12:03:06	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by july 31 2026	No	BUY	67	94¢	$63	0x0491d4…
07-19 06:10:06	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	15	92¢	$13	0xec6b49…
07-19 06:10:06	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	485	92¢	$449	0x1e547e…
07-18 19:37:51	Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xda2a2e…
07-18 19:28:19	Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xc9df1e…
07-18 19:25:52	Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xb752f3…
07-16 15:15:22	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	400	98¢	$390	0xaa1908…
07-16 15:13:49	Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	300	52¢	$156	0x572cf2…
07-14 13:16:20	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	350	97¢	$338	0x0dc20b…
07-14 13:15:47	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	350	85¢	$298	0x72a8df…
07-14 13:15:14	Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	300	75¢	$224	0xf7285a…
07-14 13:14:37	Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	400	97¢	$387	0x6b2b14…
07-14 13:13:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0xf5a9b8…
07-12 17:08:43	will russia capture pokrovka by july 31	No	BUY	300	91¢	$272	0x377e7b…
07-11 06:43:43	Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x2bb7e3…
07-09 18:10:02	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	59	89¢	$52	0x4e84c1…
07-09 18:09:16	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	69	89¢	$62	0x23ad77…
07-09 18:07:59	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	39	89¢	$35	0x720980…
07-09 18:03:22	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x6d40ae…
07-09 17:58:35	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x36bc81…
07-09 15:39:58	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	600	98¢	$588	0x8cae6b…
07-09 15:39:29	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	400	97¢	$389	0xe885d9…
07-09 15:38:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0xeeba06…
07-09 14:23:41	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x7fc607…
07-09 14:17:40	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x2216dc…
07-09 14:16:34	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$155	0x52b4dc…
07-09 14:16:05	israel closes its airspace by august 31	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x9b122b…
07-09 14:14:31	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	400	63¢	$252	0xf5febc…
07-09 14:13:25	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	110	89¢	$98	0x237a75…
07-08 03:49:44	Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	SELL	500	72¢	$360	0xa43d3c…
07-07 04:14:31	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1,500	97¢	$1,462	0xb35b08…
07-07 04:13:13	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	350	97¢	$338	0xa4dce2…
07-07 04:12:35	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	350	97¢	$339	0x084033…
07-07 04:12:22	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	350	94¢	$330	0xabbe73…
07-07 04:11:58	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	350	97¢	$341	0xdac220…
07-06 09:45:02	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0x666cb3…
07-05 17:01:50	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	400	93¢	$372	0x5494e8…
07-05 16:56:49	Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	400	97¢	$388	0x63dd9f…
07-05 16:56:25	Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$468	0x30437f…
07-05 16:55:58	Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	BUY	300	98¢	$292	0x1bbc21…
07-05 16:55:37	Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	BUY	500	96¢	$482	0x37275e…
07-05 14:42:59	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x4d800d…
07-05 11:19:19	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	No	BUY	164	91¢	$149	0x935781…
07-05 04:19:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	150	89¢	$134	0x4cd922…
07-03 14:32:16	will russia enter krasnoiarske by july 31	No	BUY	57	86¢	$49	0xcf205e…
07-03 04:17:26	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	300	95¢	$284	0xb7a3d3…
07-03 04:15:59	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	300	94¢	$282	0xd08486…
07-03 04:15:23	Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0xb4ab72…
07-03 04:14:31	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026 974	Yes	BUY	132	94¢	$124	0xa6e994…
07-03 03:16:50	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	300	91¢	$274	0xdb42b3…
07-03 03:16:25	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	300	94¢	$280	0xf68e7e…
07-03 03:14:56	Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	191	93¢	$178	0x12c135…
07-02 03:50:47	will russia enter krasnoiarske by july 31	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xfa58a9…
07-02 03:50:08	Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	138	93¢	$128	0x808254…
07-02 03:49:46	Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	123	91¢	$112	0x05042c…
07-02 03:49:05	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$179	0xac7ef7…
07-02 03:48:41	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	300	69¢	$206	0x6865f4…
07-02 03:48:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x349731…