Ecstatic-Postbox — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

84.3%

Resolved

266

Trades

2,163

lifetime

Volume

$3.97K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$120

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-17

last 07-20 13:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

91% 86% +$1

Sports

7% 60% $-9

Politics

2% 100% +$1

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 114 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No		+108	$100	93¢	$100	+$0	07-21 14:30
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No		+20	$20	99¢	$20	+$0	06-30 11:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 14°C or higher on April 27?	4	$101	103	103	+0	open	—	04-27 23:42
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	2	$100	108	0	+108	open	—	07-21 14:30
highest temperature in lagos on april 20 2026 28corbelow	3	$69	103	97	+5	open	—	04-21 11:10
highest temperature in ankara on march 21 2026 9c	2	$54	29	29	+0	open	—	03-21 10:25
highest temperature in tokyo on march 19 2026 18c	2	$52	45	45	+0	open	—	03-19 07:51
highest temperature in shenzhen on march 27 2026 25c	2	$41	24	24	+0	open	—	03-27 10:59
highest temperature in ankara on april 1 2026 15c	7	$37	42	38	+4	open	—	04-01 11:39
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	9	$29	31	0	+31	open	—	05-13 17:54
highest temperature in shanghai on april 6 2026 27corhigher	2	$29	29	28	+1	open	—	04-06 07:41
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	2	$28	32	0	+32	open	—	05-17 16:33
highest temperature in ankara on march 27 2026 14c	3	$24	13	13	+0	open	—	03-27 11:58
highest temperature in chongqing on april 1 2026 21c	3	$24	18	17	+1	open	—	04-01 09:19
highest temperature in milan on march 20 2026 14c	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	03-20 08:47
highest temperature in milan on march 20 2026 11c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-20 08:37
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 198.5	2	$20	20	20	+0	open	—	05-02 00:39
highest temperature in ankara on march 20 2026 5c	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	03-19 11:15
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	2	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	06-30 11:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$19	20	0	+20	open	—	05-10 04:12
highest temperature in ankara on march 18 2026 16c	2	$19	21	21	+0	open	—	03-18 06:43
highest temperature in shenzhen on march 25 2026 28c	7	$19	20	13	+7	open	—	03-25 09:10
highest temperature in ankara on march 24 2026 9c	3	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	03-24 11:18
highest temperature in ankara on march 25 2026 9c	4	$18	23	23	+0	open	—	03-25 12:49
highest temperature in ankara on march 18 2026 14c	2	$18	9	9	+0	open	—	03-18 12:12
highest temperature in ankara on march 26 2026 11c	2	$15	11	11	+0	open	—	03-26 13:22
highest temperature in ankara on march 18 2026 15c	2	$15	17	0	+17	open	—	03-18 06:43
highest temperature in shanghai on april 6 2026 26c	2	$15	18	17	+1	open	—	04-06 04:28
highest temperature in singapore on april 15 2026 32c	2	$14	14	14	+1	open	—	04-15 08:40
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	2	$14	16	0	+16	open	—	05-23 08:41
highest temperature in chengdu on april 9 2026 32corhigher	3	$14	88	84	+4	open	—	04-09 08:03
highest temperature in lagos on april 18 2026 30c	3	$13	93	88	+5	open	—	04-18 16:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 14:30:16	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x38fef2…
07-20 13:35:54	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xe60ef3…
07-20 13:35:48	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x429e7b…
07-05 19:20:47	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x7e2288…
06-30 11:06:07	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xf7e9e3…
06-30 10:44:41	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x61fd72…
06-29 16:56:44	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	Japan	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x4c15cd…
06-29 11:21:17	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xd1019d…
06-15 07:23:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x649163…
06-12 15:32:27	fifwc usa par 2026 06 12 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xf57ab0…
06-11 14:18:06	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x608771…
06-11 14:12:52	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x9874f6…
06-11 09:21:30	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0026de…
06-11 06:15:40	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 spread home 2pt5	South Africa	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xca106c…
06-10 13:03:01	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread home 21pt5	Spurs	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xeae704…
06-07 11:56:25	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread home 22pt5	Spurs	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x4ef6c4…
06-01 13:11:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	69¢	$2	0x434927…
06-01 13:11:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x3345d5…
06-01 08:15:35	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xb1d858…
05-30 10:51:42	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x3a902d…
05-28 01:50:36	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x315c17…
05-27 01:02:31	Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	Spurs	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x2df7a9…
05-27 01:02:19	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x2108d0…
05-27 00:42:43	Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	Spurs	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x6c5921…
05-27 00:31:34	Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	Spurs	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x5e9d5d…
05-27 00:31:24	Spread: Thunder (-14.5)	Spurs	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xe8fb1b…
05-26 00:36:46	Spread: Knicks (-12.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xf80cd5…
05-24 11:24:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xc5d35f…
05-23 13:40:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x429b0e…
05-23 12:49:35	Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)	Knicks	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x37ec2c…
05-23 12:49:26	Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)	Knicks	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xbbd7c0…
05-23 08:41:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x87806a…
05-23 08:28:52	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x28cfa4…
05-23 01:54:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x64b394…
05-23 01:53:59	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x523ccd…
05-23 01:53:34	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x40226a…
05-23 00:50:13	Spread: Spurs (-11.5)	Thunder	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x95efd3…
05-23 00:50:04	Spread: Spurs (-8.5)	Thunder	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x55d026…
05-23 00:49:57	Spread: Spurs (-11.5)	Thunder	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xb054d3…
05-21 22:44:42	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xdcbe23…
05-21 10:56:00	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x4c7239…
05-20 01:52:40	Spread: Knicks (-8.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0db206…
05-20 01:46:07	Spread: Knicks (-6.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xf30fa9…
05-20 01:45:39	Spread: Knicks (-7.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x4d01b3…
05-20 01:45:32	Spread: Knicks (-8.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xafc878…
05-20 01:45:25	Spread: Knicks (-11.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xa120c4…
05-20 01:45:14	Spread: Knicks (-14.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x8b43c2…
05-20 01:44:39	Spread: Knicks (-17.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc0236c…
05-18 11:59:13	Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x2c356f…
05-18 11:39:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xad2986…
05-18 11:38:34	Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xc60084…
05-17 16:33:31	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0xbc951e…
05-17 16:13:13	Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x93488d…
05-17 16:12:55	Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x6658c9…
05-17 16:12:45	Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xde49fd…
05-17 10:09:50	Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)	Pisa SC	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xcad02c…
05-17 09:33:54	Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x882edf…
05-17 09:33:48	Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)	Genoa CFC	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x19b453…
05-17 09:33:41	Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)	Genoa CFC	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x397f71…
05-17 09:32:23	Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x1b9210…
05-17 09:32:17	Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)	Juventus FC	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xc8f13f…
05-17 09:32:09	Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5)	ACF Fiorentina	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x47c0ce…
05-17 04:45:56	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$9	0x725056…
05-16 12:02:45	FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x4ad00d…
05-16 12:02:34	FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xfe6ae3…
05-16 11:59:46	1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x1f5b6e…
05-16 11:59:39	1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xbfd974…
05-16 11:59:32	Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)	FC Augsburg	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xf46a00…
05-16 11:59:25	Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)	FC Augsburg	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x82b4ee…
05-16 11:59:02	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x18aa12…
05-16 11:58:57	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x07874d…
05-16 11:58:48	Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x37857e…
05-16 11:58:41	Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)	Hamburger SV	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xd93626…
05-16 11:58:08	Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xbcaa73…
05-16 11:58:03	Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x7d3ab8…
05-16 11:57:56	Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)	Borussia Mönchengladbach	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x8ad31e…
05-16 11:57:51	Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-2.5)	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xb6492e…
05-16 11:57:44	Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5)	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xa3a6f6…
05-16 11:57:38	Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)	Borussia Mönchengladbach	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xfb7114…
05-16 11:56:11	FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x879793…
05-16 11:56:04	FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x873da1…
05-16 11:55:55	Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)	FC St. Pauli 1910	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xe4490b…
05-16 11:55:48	Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)	VfL Wolfsburg	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x64610f…
05-16 11:55:41	Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)	FC St. Pauli 1910	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x854d20…
05-16 11:55:31	Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	FC St. Pauli 1910	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0x886ec5…
05-16 11:55:22	Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	VfL Wolfsburg	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x16628f…
05-16 11:55:13	Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	FC St. Pauli 1910	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x4454c0…
05-16 11:54:43	Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xcdff30…
05-16 11:54:36	Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x81ab13…
05-16 11:54:28	Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)	Eintracht Frankfurt	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x39adc2…
05-16 11:54:19	Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)	VfB Stuttgart	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x9ab72d…
05-16 11:53:46	Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)	VfB Stuttgart	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x75123d…
05-16 11:53:40	Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)	Eintracht Frankfurt	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xb075f4…
05-16 11:53:32	Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)	VfB Stuttgart	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xc75ea6…
05-16 11:53:26	Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)	Eintracht Frankfurt	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xbe0323…
05-16 11:52:44	SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x287110…
05-16 11:52:39	SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x8aa5e7…
05-16 11:52:34	Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)	RB Leipzig	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x426674…
05-16 11:52:27	Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)	SC Freiburg	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xd7f0ae…
05-16 11:52:22	Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)	SC Freiburg	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xf35c2f…