Pesky-Discovery — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$507

Unrealized P&L

+$164

Hit rate

93.6%

Resolved

881

Trades

1,264

lifetime

Volume

$81.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$64

Open exposure

$944

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 12:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 257 days

Categories

Crypto

50% 87% +$499

Other

46% 73% -$62

Politics

4% 79% +$86

Tech

0% 60% -$23

Sports

0% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	+341	$230	92¢	$315	+$85	06-17 21:10
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	+309	$300	100¢	$307	+$7	10-27 12:30
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	+276	$200	94¢	$261	+$61	06-17 21:09
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	+74	$50	83¢	$61	+$11	10-27 12:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?	3	$1.2K	1,199	0	+1,199	Yes	+$31	04-24 19:12
over 1m committed to the multipli public sale	1	$1.1K	1,102	0	+1,102	Yes	+$2	08-22 18:08
over 500k committed to the multipli public sale	1	$1.1K	1,100	0	+1,100	Yes	+$1	08-19 11:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	3	$905	958	0	+958	No	+$53	05-26 18:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$800	813	0	+813	No	+$13	05-31 19:13
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	4	$760	805	0	+805	No	+$45	10-06 06:02
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	2	$700	725	0	+725	No	+$25	10-02 14:08
will bitcoin reach 90k august 24 30 2026	1	$671	673	0	+673	No	+$3	08-29 12:22
us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	4	$656	340	340	+0	Yes	+$3	06-14 23:26
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$642	1,330	1,330	+0	No	+$22	06-03 03:36
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	2	$600	609	0	+609	No	+$9	10-17 13:09
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	3	$600	616	0	+616	No	+$16	09-05 05:57
bitcoin above 70k on april 5	2	$599	603	0	+603	No	+$4	04-05 09:53
bitcoin above 66k on june 16 2026	3	$570	598	0	+598	No	+$28	06-16 15:47
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	3	$550	590	0	+590	No	+$40	10-05 15:14
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	5	$550	586	0	+586	No	+$36	09-21 14:06
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	2	$520	534	0	+534	Yes	+$14	10-03 14:11
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	1	$500	516	0	+516	Yes	+$16	10-12 14:03
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	2	$500	520	0	+520	No	+$20	10-10 07:18
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	3	$500	532	0	+532	Yes	+$32	09-09 15:03
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	2	$500	513	0	+513	Yes	+$13	10-16 15:30
bitcoin above 72k on april 9	3	$500	530	0	+530	Yes	+$30	04-09 16:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$499	521	0	+521	No	+$22	05-22 09:53
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	4	$459	523	95	+428	No	-$13	10-26 15:28
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	3	$430	499	0	+499	No	+$69	09-25 12:40
Pharos FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	2	$425	432	0	+432	No	+$7	04-29 15:58
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	3	$400	218	218	+0	No	+$0	10-12 14:57
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 15?	1	$400	421	0	+421	Yes	+$21	10-15 15:41
bitcoin above 80k on april 23	1	$400	401	0	+401	No	+$1	04-23 15:04
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$400	405	0	+405	No	+$5	04-30 09:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 12:30:56	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x0a082c…
10-27 12:29:50	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xf288d3…
10-27 09:33:02	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	SELL	122	83¢	$101	0xa86aca…
10-26 17:19:57	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	102	88¢	$90	0x0537d2…
10-26 15:28:00	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	209	96¢	$200	0x5bd604…
10-26 15:21:08	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	219	91¢	$200	0x8dbcd5…
10-26 15:18:48	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	95	9¢	$9	0x47c671…
10-26 15:18:23	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	218	92¢	$200	0xf13200…
10-26 14:05:54	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	53¢	$50	0x303e24…
10-26 14:03:47	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	SELL	110	94¢	$103	0x1f607d…
10-25 04:44:51	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xa48feb…
10-25 02:35:29	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xf48b79…
10-25 02:32:33	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x73011b…
10-25 02:32:21	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x969404…
10-24 14:33:50	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$13	0x466c14…
10-23 15:35:50	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	316	95¢	$300	0x43e433…
10-23 15:32:53	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	87	94¢	$82	0x0c99bc…
10-23 13:39:03	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x71caff…
10-23 13:37:53	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	303	99¢	$300	0x444854…
10-23 13:37:20	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	24	43¢	$10	0x7bb3fa…
10-22 17:35:50	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x43b0cf…
10-22 16:00:41	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xa1463f…
10-21 15:47:06	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0x57d190…
10-21 15:22:21	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	SELL	72	70¢	$50	0x290c97…
10-21 04:59:33	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	248	81¢	$200	0x231690…
10-21 04:18:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x7fe2de…
10-20 15:51:21	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0x0fec5d…
10-20 15:49:12	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	72	70¢	$50	0x2f8301…
10-20 15:46:41	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	217	92¢	$200	0x8922fc…
10-20 15:32:50	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x390573…
10-20 15:31:12	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	110	26¢	$28	0xc8688a…
10-20 15:19:05	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x758fcb…
10-20 02:11:23	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	305	98¢	$300	0x55c7b8…
10-20 02:10:23	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xed0799…
10-19 15:46:53	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	316	95¢	$300	0xa23b6e…
10-19 15:44:59	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x7428c7…
10-19 15:31:11	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	16¢	$10	0xf24a55…
10-19 08:04:33	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x7b0def…
10-19 08:03:15	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x809640…
10-19 02:59:51	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	307	98¢	$300	0x62029c…
10-17 15:42:09	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xb86f95…
10-17 15:21:54	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	252	79¢	$200	0x83af20…
10-17 15:08:50	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x1dcf94…
10-17 13:09:09	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	304	99¢	$300	0xa15265…
10-17 05:47:28	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	208	96¢	$200	0xc09882…
10-17 05:45:25	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	306	98¢	$300	0xf0164d…
10-16 15:30:28	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	304	99¢	$300	0x299bb7…
10-16 15:29:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 16?	No	SELL	17	91¢	$16	0x8ab11c…
10-16 14:49:25	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	209	96¢	$200	0x707eca…
10-16 13:43:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 16?	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xd4a682…
10-16 08:07:03	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	57	95¢	$54	0xe87aaa…
10-16 04:18:12	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	307	98¢	$300	0x03682c…
10-15 15:41:50	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 15?	Yes	BUY	421	95¢	$400	0xb3dc6d…
10-15 15:13:34	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	309	97¢	$300	0xe1df9b…
10-15 15:12:43	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x355c10…
10-15 15:12:14	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	205	98¢	$200	0x9acefb…
10-14 11:31:22	bitcoin above 82k on october 14 2026	Yes	BUY	219	91¢	$200	0x6ead05…
10-14 05:47:58	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	2¢	$2	0x591ae3…
10-14 05:45:46	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	SELL	33	10¢	$3	0x07fe4b…
10-14 05:45:22	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x810b8c…
10-14 05:44:07	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	SELL	23	10¢	$2	0x34ddd6…
10-14 05:25:49	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xa517c2…
10-14 04:08:25	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	226	88¢	$200	0xcde05b…
10-13 05:20:20	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0xeba557…
10-13 05:20:06	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xeba841…
10-13 05:18:54	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x0ad91a…
10-13 05:13:32	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	SELL	64	23¢	$15	0x35583b…
10-13 04:11:23	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	327	92¢	$300	0x67ad76…
10-12 17:17:59	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0x643679…
10-12 15:49:05	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x9ecff2…
10-12 14:57:45	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	SELL	193	92¢	$177	0xe1a3b9…
10-12 14:03:32	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	516	97¢	$500	0x416d88…
10-12 13:35:00	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	SELL	26	92¢	$23	0xf3457c…
10-12 06:04:32	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	16¢	$7	0x69862a…
10-12 06:03:54	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	14¢	$6	0xcd3ceb…
10-12 06:02:18	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0x25366d…
10-11 23:29:57	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xaeb5d7…
10-11 12:51:21	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	218	92¢	$200	0x13be11…
10-11 12:47:42	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	107	93¢	$100	0xf56433…
10-11 12:47:09	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0x8d89bc…
10-11 12:43:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 11?	Yes	BUY	305	98¢	$300	0x52579f…
10-10 14:00:10	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	305	98¢	$300	0x784a33…
10-10 07:18:39	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	310	97¢	$300	0xdee589…
10-10 05:52:51	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	210	95¢	$200	0x78f7f2…
10-09 14:58:34	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	316	95¢	$300	0x050137…
10-09 14:52:58	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	214	93¢	$200	0xf0e4a3…
10-09 14:15:57	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0xb5814b…
10-09 06:38:57	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xfec144…
10-09 04:42:00	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	317	95¢	$300	0x00ee58…
10-08 14:19:09	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x4f55c1…
10-07 08:49:51	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x9a69c6…
10-07 08:47:15	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	337	24¢	$81	0xa0c628…
10-07 04:54:47	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	161	9¢	$14	0x0ea3b0…
10-07 04:23:54	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	7¢	$9	0x11de8f…
10-07 03:00:57	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x499a5d…
10-07 02:59:17	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x21aaf3…
10-06 18:58:59	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	26	87¢	$23	0x6e0473…
10-06 13:11:16	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	171	11¢	$20	0xdf3b90…
10-06 13:07:40	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	337	15¢	$50	0x720156…
10-06 06:02:01	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	411	97¢	$400	0x450bb3…