Subdued-Wake — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$10

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

12.5%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

19 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$184

$184 lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$112

7 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 05-13 07:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Sports

53% — —

Other

23% — —

Crypto

17% 40% $-10

Politics

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	-39	$-35	96¢	$-37	$-3	05-12 10:42
UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims)	Trey Ogden	+46	$24	50¢	$23	$-1	05-13 06:41
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	No	-62	$-10	24¢	$-15	$-5	05-11 20:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	+36	$13	40¢	$15	+$2	05-11 09:45
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	-39	$-15	36¢	$-14	+$1	05-10 15:57
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	+54	$7	12¢	$7	$-0	05-12 19:52
Will Cyprus win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	+28	$1	5¢	$1	+$0	05-13 07:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 07:24:27	Will Cyprus win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x45688a…
05-13 06:41:15	UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims)	Trey Ogden	SELL	28	49¢	$14	0xae31f8…
05-13 06:41:11	UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims)	Trey Ogden	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x3e2320…
05-13 06:41:06	UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims)	Trey Ogden	SELL	28	49¢	$14	0xb75526…
05-13 02:32:29	UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims)	Trey Ogden	BUY	29	50¢	$14	0x08176c…
05-13 02:08:03	UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims)	Trey Ogden	BUY	29	50¢	$14	0xa643b9…
05-13 02:06:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xd5b447…
05-12 19:52:26	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	13¢	$7	0xffd31e…
05-12 10:42:25	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	39	89¢	$35	0x1c4cf4…
05-12 01:52:46	UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims)	Trey Ogden	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x58cf3f…
05-11 20:33:40	Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	No	SELL	62	16¢	$10	0xc806ff…
05-11 09:45:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	35¢	$13	0x7779ee…
05-11 00:34:23	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	25	17¢	$4	0x5414c3…
05-10 20:22:09	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x04666b…
05-10 15:57:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	38¢	$15	0x9c3edd…
05-07 09:50:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	25	32¢	$8	0xe075ae…
05-07 08:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xceee13…
05-07 06:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x0f20a0…
05-07 05:58:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x636461…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	8	$3.33K	71	05-13 04:06
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	5	$7.25K	77	05-13 02:13
Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694	4	$1.17K	21	05-07 09:54
Essential-Injunction 0x19b7…9ee6	4	$845	16	05-13 07:24
Ordinary-Confectionery 0xa5e3…4d7e	4	$691	8	05-12 21:57
Impossible-Bolt 0xc905…b394	4	$663	8	05-07 09:53
Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92	3	$8.03K	34	05-13 07:04
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	3	$2.43K	3	05-11 21:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims)	6	$78	102	56	+46	open	—	05-13 06:41
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	1	$35	0	39	-39	open	—	05-12 10:42
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$15	0	39	-39	open	—	05-10 15:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	1	$13	36	0	+36	open	—	05-11 09:45
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	1	$10	0	62	-62	open	—	05-11 20:33
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$9	25	25	+0	open	—	05-11 00:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	1	$8	25	0	+25	Down	$-8	05-07 09:50
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	1	$7	54	0	+54	open	—	05-12 19:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	1	$5	12	0	+12	Up	$-5	05-13 02:06
Will Cyprus win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$1	28	0	+28	open	—	05-13 07:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	1	$1	14	0	+14	Down	$-1	05-07 08:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	Up	+$2	05-07 05:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	Down	+$2	05-07 06:04