Pointed-Appearance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$153

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

97.2%

Resolved

Trades

3,214

lifetime

Volume

$2.59M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$806

Open exposure

$22

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 13:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

54% 67% +$15

Politics

43% 57% +$138

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes		+500	$26	4¢	$22	$-5	07-01 14:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	103	$181.6K	131,478	84,584	+46,894	open	—	03-18 05:55
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	98	$115.2K	68,558	54,337	+14,221	open	—	03-31 19:21
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	101	$113.0K	124,148	55,142	+69,007	open	—	01-28 11:05
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	70	$104.1K	61,254	45,820	+15,434	open	—	04-21 02:04
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	69	$97.3K	58,951	57,674	+1,277	open	—	01-28 11:37
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	154	$92.8K	110,970	72,017	+38,952	open	—	03-12 05:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	28	$83.7K	63,000	48,000	+15,000	open	—	04-18 12:39
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	12	$74.6K	37,454	37,425	+29	open	—	02-28 07:08
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	76	$69.5K	56,767	28,514	+28,252	open	—	02-28 07:28
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	50	$66.5K	54,415	13,481	+40,935	open	—	05-29 07:15
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	11	$62.8K	63,604	1,501	+62,103	open	—	02-02 12:29
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	19	$58.5K	53,048	5,800	+47,248	open	—	06-03 21:55
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	15	$55.3K	55,535	500	+55,035	open	—	04-08 13:38
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	35	$52.3K	43,678	11,073	+32,606	open	—	04-01 02:28
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more	69	$49.2K	46,454	18,353	+28,101	open	—	02-15 05:21
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	20	$48.3K	3,879	47,353	-43,474	open	—	02-18 08:39
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	12	$45.4K	35,975	10,000	+25,975	open	—	02-09 04:26
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	12	$45.3K	45,503	0	+45,503	open	—	01-30 11:56
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	21	$43.4K	32,469	11,250	+21,219	open	—	02-09 02:48
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	94	$41.4K	46,246	25,640	+20,606	open	—	06-15 13:52
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	29	$40.7K	40,779	0	+40,779	open	—	04-30 15:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	112	$37.7K	42,492	27,939	+14,553	open	—	06-01 03:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	21	$33.7K	34,125	1,500	+32,625	open	—	05-27 04:01
will the centrist reform alliance win the most seats in the 2026 japanese general election	27	$32.2K	31,399	1,000	+30,399	open	—	02-08 15:53
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	25	$31.3K	18,000	18,000	+0	open	—	05-28 08:10
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	14	$29.6K	25,120	24,762	+358	open	—	02-25 06:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	26	$29.2K	21,500	12,500	+9,000	open	—	05-15 04:31
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	30	$28.8K	16,000	13,000	+3,000	open	—	05-21 03:00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	14	$26.2K	20,720	25,327	-4,607	open	—	04-08 08:59
spx opens up or down on march 10 2026	20	$25.4K	13,036	13,036	+0	open	—	03-10 13:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 13:53:43	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	336	97¢	$326	0x23c7cd…
07-20 13:53:13	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	336	97¢	$326	0x8ec66c…
07-20 11:30:10	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,965	0x5aa853…
07-20 09:46:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	500	82¢	$412	0xfbf506…
07-20 09:00:01	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	648	100¢	$645	0x2322a2…
07-20 08:58:52	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,600	100¢	$1,592	0xaf8061…
07-20 08:58:49	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xea11eb…
07-20 08:56:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,990	0x6cb851…
07-20 08:55:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0xe16633…
07-20 08:53:06	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x05769d…
07-20 08:51:30	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x575c49…
07-20 08:49:31	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	142	99¢	$141	0x721189…
07-20 07:45:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x2519fe…
07-18 15:13:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	1,000	12¢	$120	0xd91ca4…
07-18 15:12:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0x84b8c9…
07-10 20:06:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	93¢	$930	0x66545e…
07-10 18:48:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	524	92¢	$482	0x184c64…
07-10 18:47:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	350	92¢	$322	0xf2f62e…
07-10 17:37:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	119	92¢	$109	0x230903…
07-10 17:35:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x306ca7…
07-10 17:19:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x57c7c4…
07-08 04:25:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 7 20260630014219997 185	No	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0x591222…
07-08 01:15:22	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	SELL	500	90¢	$450	0x365e09…
07-08 01:13:08	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 7 20260630014219997 185	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$986	0x84b760…
07-07 21:32:49	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	No	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0x5a43ca…
07-04 12:59:14	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	Yes	SELL	500	4¢	$20	0x8dcb3e…
07-04 12:58:32	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0xbae85d…
07-03 03:02:38	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	Yes	SELL	97	7¢	$7	0xc52b00…
07-03 03:01:44	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	Yes	BUY	97	6¢	$6	0x552293…
07-01 20:45:44	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,980	0x66c40d…
07-01 14:26:17	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	3,200	100¢	$3,184	0xe7fde5…
07-01 14:20:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	4¢	$21	0xd1ee47…
07-01 11:47:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$47	0x2a2ed2…
07-01 08:10:53	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	BUY	499	100¢	$499	0x9f7c80…
07-01 07:52:11	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xb15842…
07-01 07:35:26	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,982	0xbc2b0a…
07-01 07:09:22	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2e2326…
07-01 07:06:02	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	1,200	99¢	$1,193	0xdb500d…
07-01 05:46:29	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	Yes	SELL	54	0¢	$0	0x4621eb…
07-01 05:46:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xcc1711…
07-01 05:40:31	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	Yes	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0x022436…
07-01 05:32:16	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	202	100¢	$202	0x9c691d…
07-01 05:03:26	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	311	100¢	$310	0x654e69…
07-01 02:21:58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	600	100¢	$598	0xf5c317…
07-01 01:28:38	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0xd15469…
06-28 08:46:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	500	91¢	$455	0x1134fd…
06-28 02:05:29	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	146	0¢	$1	0x4bc5e6…
06-28 02:03:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	146	0¢	$1	0xcf9e56…
06-23 22:31:46	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$8	0xdc7b72…
06-23 22:22:16	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0xd357a1…
06-23 14:11:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	46¢	$921	0x1fc4d0…
06-23 14:10:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	46¢	$920	0xc35979…
06-23 06:30:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0xb2c0a8…
06-18 12:09:17	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$997	0xa081f9…
06-18 07:41:32	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	500	91¢	$453	0x61ede0…
06-18 07:21:05	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	500	93¢	$466	0x459640…
06-18 03:04:08	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xd7ef3b…
06-18 03:03:05	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x61f81f…
06-17 15:00:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,010	100¢	$10,000	0x27c941…
06-17 10:59:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,504	100¢	$4,500	0x67e86f…
06-15 13:52:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0xc9b32c…
06-15 13:52:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	696	93¢	$648	0x26ae4d…
06-15 13:52:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	275	93¢	$256	0xfcdee5…
06-15 13:50:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,000	7¢	$67	0x9f34bc…
06-15 13:39:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x2dc1b5…
06-15 13:38:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	77	90¢	$69	0x1ed2d5…
06-15 13:38:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	985	90¢	$887	0x3a6ddb…
06-15 13:37:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	1,000	90¢	$905	0xdaa638…
06-15 08:58:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	985	88¢	$867	0xcfa5bb…
06-15 08:58:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	15	88¢	$13	0x8f3598…
06-15 08:57:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	1,000	89¢	$890	0x075769…
06-15 02:17:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	18	81¢	$15	0x7cb087…
06-15 02:17:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	44	81¢	$35	0x1b86ca…
06-15 02:17:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	938	81¢	$760	0x33dcb0…
06-15 01:42:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,000	81¢	$1,620	0x178fda…
06-15 01:00:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	3,000	84¢	$2,520	0xb65444…
06-14 23:16:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,000	82¢	$1,630	0x5f7a19…
06-14 23:02:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	10,000	83¢	$8,328	0x277f85…
06-14 13:36:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	500	86¢	$430	0x294d96…
06-14 13:36:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	100	86¢	$86	0xedda33…
06-14 13:35:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	600	86¢	$514	0x08709d…
06-14 12:44:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$14	0x1215d4…
06-14 12:44:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7658b6…
06-14 12:43:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	480	97¢	$464	0x6b9490…
06-14 05:51:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	375	78¢	$292	0xd3cf74…
06-14 05:51:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xb36725…
06-14 05:50:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	593	77¢	$458	0xcd2963…
06-14 05:49:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,000	21¢	$210	0xf24d60…
06-13 16:58:36	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$2	0x959815…
06-13 15:26:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,000	77¢	$770	0x31a8f0…
06-13 12:55:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,000	77¢	$770	0x65abcf…
06-13 11:12:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,000	82¢	$820	0x6cb3e0…
06-13 07:49:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	1,000	15¢	$148	0x10754e…
06-13 07:48:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,000	14¢	$145	0x2a8a0a…
06-13 06:58:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	500	81¢	$405	0x0590b9…
06-13 04:14:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	1,000	16¢	$160	0x245ada…
06-12 14:08:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,000	89¢	$890	0x18492a…
06-12 14:01:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,000	88¢	$880	0x7d06ca…
06-12 13:42:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	500	84¢	$420	0xa73cf1…
06-12 09:40:49	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0x1bb9b9…