Pointed-Appearance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$153

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

97.2%

Resolved

Trades

3,060

lifetime

Volume

$2.51M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$819

Open exposure

$210

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 17:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

55% 67% +$15

Politics

41% 57% +$138

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 104 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No		-212	$-224	99¢	$-210	+$14	06-03 10:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	103	$181.6K	131,478	84,584	+46,894	open	—	03-18 05:55
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	98	$115.2K	68,558	54,337	+14,221	open	—	03-31 19:21
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	101	$113.0K	124,148	55,142	+69,007	open	—	01-28 11:05
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	70	$104.1K	61,254	45,820	+15,434	open	—	04-21 02:04
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	69	$97.3K	58,951	57,674	+1,277	open	—	01-28 11:37
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	154	$92.8K	110,970	72,017	+38,952	open	—	03-12 05:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	28	$83.7K	63,000	48,000	+15,000	open	—	04-18 12:39
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	12	$74.6K	37,454	37,425	+29	open	—	02-28 07:08
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	76	$69.5K	56,767	28,514	+28,252	open	—	02-28 07:28
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	50	$66.5K	54,415	13,481	+40,935	open	—	05-29 07:15
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	11	$62.8K	63,604	1,501	+62,103	open	—	02-02 12:29
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	19	$58.5K	53,048	5,800	+47,248	open	—	06-03 21:55
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	15	$55.3K	55,535	500	+55,035	open	—	04-08 13:38
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	35	$52.3K	43,678	11,073	+32,606	open	—	04-01 02:28
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more	69	$49.2K	46,454	18,353	+28,101	open	—	02-15 05:21
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	20	$48.3K	3,879	47,353	-43,474	open	—	02-18 08:39
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	12	$45.4K	35,975	10,000	+25,975	open	—	02-09 04:26
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	12	$45.3K	45,503	0	+45,503	open	—	01-30 11:56
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	21	$43.4K	32,469	11,250	+21,219	open	—	02-09 02:48
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	29	$40.7K	40,779	0	+40,779	open	—	04-30 15:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	112	$37.7K	42,492	27,939	+14,553	open	—	06-01 03:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	21	$33.7K	34,125	1,500	+32,625	open	—	05-27 04:01
will the centrist reform alliance win the most seats in the 2026 japanese general election	27	$32.2K	31,399	1,000	+30,399	open	—	02-08 15:53
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	25	$31.3K	18,000	18,000	+0	open	—	05-28 08:10
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	14	$29.6K	25,120	24,762	+358	open	—	02-25 06:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	26	$29.2K	21,500	12,500	+9,000	open	—	05-15 04:31
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	30	$28.8K	16,000	13,000	+3,000	open	—	05-21 03:00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	14	$26.2K	20,720	25,327	-4,607	open	—	04-08 08:59
spx opens up or down on march 10 2026	20	$25.4K	13,036	13,036	+0	open	—	03-10 13:49
will the liberal democratic party win the most seats in the 2026 japanese general election	12	$25.1K	11,412	13,819	-2,407	open	—	02-08 16:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 19:31:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	1,000	5¢	$50	0xe7b681…
06-09 17:53:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	54	6¢	$3	0x9f5118…
06-09 15:33:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	749	91¢	$681	0xbbb924…
06-09 15:33:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	251	91¢	$229	0x889a1f…
06-09 15:30:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0xa0c258…
06-09 14:40:01	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	500	95¢	$476	0xf262da…
06-09 13:41:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	2,000	93¢	$1,860	0xbe5335…
06-09 13:15:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,000	92¢	$1,840	0xccd58b…
06-09 12:28:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	77	93¢	$72	0x969d31…
06-09 12:26:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	77	93¢	$72	0x6400f4…
06-08 12:04:57	will wti reach 130 in june 2026 362	No	SELL	360	96¢	$347	0x785611…
06-08 12:00:42	will wti reach 130 in june 2026 362	No	SELL	90	96¢	$87	0xac0115…
06-08 09:40:51	will wti reach 130 in june 2026 362	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x0b3438…
06-08 06:15:57	will wti reach 130 in june 2026 362	No	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0x660003…
06-08 00:54:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	826	92¢	$760	0xf74e4f…
06-08 00:54:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,174	92¢	$1,080	0xf4d419…
06-07 22:16:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0xbc4d20…
06-07 20:10:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	149	92¢	$137	0x46d4e1…
06-07 20:10:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x20453d…
06-07 20:10:01	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	839	92¢	$772	0x89806c…
06-07 01:16:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	3,000	6¢	$180	0xe99130…
06-07 00:12:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,000	6¢	$120	0x928917…
06-06 10:20:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	900	2¢	$14	0xa8367f…
06-06 09:43:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0xd7a096…
06-06 09:35:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xc50689…
06-06 09:35:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x094ee4…
06-06 09:34:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$0	0xf8ef6a…
06-06 09:34:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xc49b3f…
06-06 09:33:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$15	0xafaa6a…
06-06 08:57:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$986	0x9bf2bc…
06-06 03:01:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	1,000	7¢	$70	0x37c8f4…
06-05 23:50:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,000	9¢	$180	0xcd0c09…
06-05 12:53:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	2,000	11¢	$220	0x72df10…
06-05 09:40:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,000	11¢	$220	0xd4417c…
06-05 09:20:31	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0xb9efb1…
06-05 08:48:28	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	195	96¢	$188	0xa651b1…
06-05 07:31:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	SELL	1,000	2¢	$19	0x083b0e…
06-05 07:27:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$17	0xab34d7…
06-05 06:41:04	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xbaf734…
06-05 00:50:22	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	Yes	SELL	63	2¢	$1	0xaaf7dc…
06-05 00:36:22	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	Yes	BUY	63	2¢	$1	0x33e81e…
06-04 12:06:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	120	95¢	$113	0xb7aa5a…
06-04 12:04:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	120	95¢	$113	0xb292f9…
06-03 21:55:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,548	100¢	$2,538	0xae5a4a…
06-03 21:51:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	SELL	1,000	95¢	$952	0x347e43…
06-03 21:51:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	2,000	13¢	$262	0xa7a2e1…
06-03 20:14:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$948	0xd7c44a…
06-03 20:09:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,000	11¢	$220	0x944f78…
06-03 10:45:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,991	0x4b0f72…
06-03 10:44:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	2,000	98¢	$1,964	0x03c883…
06-03 07:10:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,970	0x073a85…
06-03 05:47:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,956	0x6accc8…
06-03 04:13:30	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,970	0x6f348a…
06-03 03:14:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0x996dd1…
06-02 20:53:26	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	1,535	99¢	$1,513	0x4946ff…
06-02 19:43:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	412	99¢	$406	0x1a9bf3…
06-02 15:17:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	94¢	$940	0x83d63e…
06-02 14:28:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	94¢	$940	0x0252f2…
06-02 13:47:57	Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0x9af232…
06-02 13:46:49	Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x2191d2…
06-02 13:46:44	Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x4fef7b…
06-02 09:59:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,000	99¢	$3,968	0x86deb4…
06-02 09:31:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	94¢	$940	0xeb3b6f…
06-02 09:16:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x17619c…
06-02 06:45:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,976	0x6c3f2c…
06-02 06:18:58	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,979	0xa2e65a…
06-02 06:02:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,982	0xfe7365…
06-02 05:18:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,000	100¢	$3,984	0x81f7d5…
06-02 01:57:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	1,734	98¢	$1,703	0x3e34c6…
06-02 01:46:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	304	100¢	$303	0x8031b9…
06-02 01:46:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,696	100¢	$2,688	0x569318…
06-02 01:43:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	94¢	$940	0x17ada2…
06-01 22:09:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0xaceb47…
06-01 21:45:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	94¢	$940	0xe462db…
06-01 17:31:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x8e595c…
06-01 17:09:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,500	100¢	$5,494	0xb213d9…
06-01 17:01:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	278	99¢	$277	0xf9db7a…
06-01 17:01:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,990	0xf5105f…
06-01 17:01:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,242	99¢	$2,231	0x81e5f2…
06-01 17:01:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	480	100¢	$477	0x0620c0…
06-01 14:58:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?	No	BUY	250	97¢	$242	0xb4eb48…
06-01 14:58:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?	No	BUY	250	97¢	$242	0x02be96…
06-01 13:20:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	23¢	$230	0x0ec9b7…
06-01 13:15:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	23¢	$230	0x6319ae…
06-01 12:07:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0xe1d674…
06-01 11:50:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	89¢	$443	0xa36421…
06-01 05:54:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	83¢	$249	0xfc4cdb…
06-01 03:29:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,994	0x625a57…
06-01 00:36:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0x037f17…
06-01 00:15:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	9¢	$90	0x633bbc…
05-31 22:25:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0x141791…
05-31 17:20:41	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	1,980	100¢	$1,978	0xb4ed88…
05-31 07:50:36	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc5e2a3…
05-30 23:33:22	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$20	0xb1e1be…
05-30 07:41:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	186	100¢	$186	0x1b9060…
05-30 07:27:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x196571…
05-30 07:04:14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	1,050	100¢	$1,048	0x496d45…
05-30 06:59:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	391	100¢	$390	0xb92416…
05-30 06:32:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0x8c6c02…
05-30 06:29:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x2b1e24…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	213	$63.0M	78,653	06-09 22:12
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	194	$2.15M	31,788	06-09 22:49
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	182	$460.4K	2,532	06-08 20:16
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	163	$19.8K	4,284	06-08 12:04
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	156	$486.5K	39,659	06-01 02:10
Naive-Waterwheel 0x10b2…4ceb	143	$85.6K	4,458	06-09 18:22
Speedy-Bartender 0x4bf4…7021	140	$173.7K	4,015	06-06 01:38
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	140	$64.6K	5,921	06-01 14:56