Pointed-Appearance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$23.7K

Unrealized P&L

+$521

Hit rate

74.5%

Resolved

352

Trades

4,478

lifetime

Volume

$3.45M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$771

Open exposure

$56.6K

17 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 03:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 129 days

Categories

Other

62% 71% +$15,468

Politics

36% 74% +$4,546

Crypto

2% 83% +$231

Sports

1% 78% +$3,496

Tech

0% 20% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 149 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+15,482	$15,402	100¢	$15.4K	+$26	10-22 11:38
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+10,000	$9,400	94¢	$9.3K	-$50	10-25 12:15
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+8,471	$6,225	93¢	$7.9K	+$1,653	10-26 14:41
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+5,707	$5,673	100¢	$5.7K	+$29	10-12 14:44
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+5,000	$4,650	94¢	$4.7K	+$25	10-25 23:42
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	+3,334	$3,044	98¢	$3.3K	+$209	10-05 13:27
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	+2,852	$2,616	97¢	$2.8K	+$161	10-17 22:14
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+2,731	$2,621	96¢	$2.6K	$0	10-24 09:59
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	+2,000	$1,846	98¢	$2.0K	+$123	09-12 01:00
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+23,994	$1,755	7¢	$1.7K	-$75	10-26 10:28
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	-10,524	$709	6¢	$-684	-$1,393	10-25 09:25
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+500	$474	98¢	$490	+$17	08-26 22:20
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	+2,000	$117	2¢	$31	-$86	09-20 03:49
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	-13,000	-$32	0¢	$-13	+$19	10-22 11:39
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	-3,225	-$13	0¢	$-11	+$2	10-13 01:44
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+500	$26	2¢	$10	-$17	07-01 14:20
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	-1	$119	76¢	$-1	-$120	10-06 23:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	103	$181.6K	131,478	84,584	+46,894	Yes	-$2,137	03-18 05:55
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	54	$122.1K	61,415	62,217	-801	Yes	+$96	05-30 06:19
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	98	$115.2K	68,558	54,337	+14,221	No	+$234	03-31 19:21
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	194	$114.3K	124,951	47,420	+77,531	No	-$1,706	09-16 12:35
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	101	$113.0K	124,148	55,142	+69,007	No	+$4,615	01-28 11:05
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	70	$104.1K	61,254	45,820	+15,434	No	+$1,434	04-21 02:04
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	69	$97.3K	58,951	57,674	+1,277	Yes	-$1,916	01-28 11:37
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	154	$92.8K	110,970	72,017	+38,952	No	+$3,538	03-12 05:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	28	$83.7K	63,000	48,000	+15,000	No	+$183	04-18 12:39
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	32	$77.5K	47,506	60,654	-13,148	Yes	+$4,430	09-16 09:31
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	12	$74.6K	37,454	37,425	+29	Yes	+$75	02-28 07:08
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	76	$69.5K	56,767	28,514	+28,252	Yes	+$167	02-28 07:28
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	11	$62.8K	63,604	1,501	+62,103	Yes	+$32	02-02 12:29
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	30	$62.6K	57,448	6,300	+51,148	No	+$216	06-03 21:55
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	18	$55.8K	55,750	40,181	+15,569	No	+$348	07-29 17:55
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	15	$55.3K	55,535	500	+55,035	Yes	+$107	04-08 13:38
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	18	$52.9K	53,063	32,760	+20,304	No	+$639	09-16 14:45
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	35	$52.3K	43,678	11,073	+32,606	No	+$1,168	04-01 02:28
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	57	$51.3K	30,500	30,500	-0	open	—	10-25 20:30
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	102	$49.9K	56,692	26,640	+30,052	Yes	+$4,097	06-15 13:52
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more	69	$49.2K	46,454	18,353	+28,101	No	+$12,942	02-15 05:21
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	20	$48.3K	3,879	47,353	-43,474	Yes	-$800	02-18 08:39
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	12	$45.4K	35,975	10,000	+25,975	Yes	+$18	02-09 04:26
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	12	$45.3K	45,503	0	+45,503	No	+$153	01-30 11:56
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	21	$43.4K	32,469	11,250	+21,219	Yes	+$322	02-09 02:48
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	167	$43.3K	30,760	81,063	-50,304	No	+$422	09-16 14:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	119	$41.9K	45,950	29,939	+16,011	No	-$111	06-01 03:29
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	29	$40.7K	40,779	0	+40,779	Yes	+$85	04-30 15:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	25	$39.6K	39,128	3,000	+36,128	No	+$128	05-27 04:03
will the centrist reform alliance win the most seats in the 2026 japanese general election	27	$32.2K	31,399	1,000	+30,399	No	+$178	02-08 15:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 03:21:23	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	5,000	96¢	$4,813	0x9e203b…
10-26 14:41:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,479	94¢	$4,202	0x11685c…
10-26 14:41:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x3a3ddd…
10-26 14:41:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	218	94¢	$205	0x23f556…
10-26 14:40:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	270	94¢	$254	0x12c168…
10-26 10:28:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5,000	4¢	$222	0x39314e…
10-26 09:46:44	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	96¢	$4,790	0xc77b8f…
10-26 09:44:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	4¢	$200	0xc31a28…
10-25 23:42:06	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	94¢	$4,700	0xebdecb…
10-25 20:30:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	5,000	96¢	$4,825	0xf6e2e6…
10-25 20:04:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,778	5¢	$139	0xcd46c9…
10-25 20:04:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	622	5¢	$31	0x1d6c7d…
10-25 20:04:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,600	5¢	$80	0x04fcdb…
10-25 12:15:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	95¢	$4,750	0xf46eb8…
10-25 12:00:42	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	5,000	97¢	$4,827	0x371c91…
10-25 09:25:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	377	4¢	$15	0x1cbc5f…
10-25 09:24:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	377	4¢	$15	0x584a02…
10-25 03:43:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	96¢	$4,790	0xec27b2…
10-24 16:02:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,000	5¢	$250	0x8e0700…
10-24 12:31:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	6¢	$300	0x3579c9…
10-24 09:59:44	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,313	96¢	$1,262	0x73a9c8…
10-24 08:58:42	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	772	100¢	$769	0x4a3bc8…
10-23 21:19:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	7¢	$350	0x890754…
10-23 20:05:35	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,624	96¢	$2,519	0xf8c43e…
10-23 17:40:27	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	476	96¢	$457	0x187cd7…
10-23 16:48:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5,000	92¢	$4,600	0x4d5ff4…
10-23 16:32:26	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	899	96¢	$863	0xe53749…
10-23 12:14:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	93¢	$4,650	0x82c351…
10-23 12:13:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	92¢	$4,600	0x3e7d5f…
10-23 11:29:12	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	1,553	95¢	$1,475	0x82a424…
10-23 09:20:14	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	3,447	95¢	$3,275	0xb30c0f…
10-22 15:10:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	564	6¢	$34	0x699153…
10-22 15:09:17	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	564	6¢	$34	0x941e27…
10-22 11:39:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10,000	0¢	$20	0x37c1f1…
10-22 11:38:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,970	0xaa6da9…
10-22 11:37:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8,618	10¢	$862	0xdcfe6b…
10-22 11:37:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8,618	10¢	$862	0xa97095…
10-21 22:55:53	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	94¢	$4,700	0x8b1546…
10-21 12:18:02	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,000	2¢	$85	0xb89ef7…
10-21 12:15:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	2¢	$85	0x796905…
10-17 22:14:35	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xce8d76…
10-17 17:17:59	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,174	98¢	$1,151	0xa277e1…
10-16 15:37:19	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$14	0xedd2a2…
10-16 14:51:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,000	0¢	$12	0xb68558…
10-15 00:03:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,000	0¢	$3	0xe4705e…
10-14 15:17:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,982	0x74c5f5…
10-13 20:54:15	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	96¢	$4,804	0xb11c76…
10-13 18:59:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	96¢	$4,790	0x65cd2e…
10-13 14:17:50	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,637	96¢	$2,537	0x10a3af…
10-13 09:08:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0xa2906c…
10-13 09:07:59	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,827	96¢	$1,757	0x08e0f5…
10-13 06:23:46	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xf78123…
10-13 06:23:30	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	326	96¢	$314	0x7e8d6c…
10-13 05:30:00	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	96¢	$4,790	0x2ca82a…
10-13 01:44:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,225	0¢	$13	0x78ee1c…
10-12 21:11:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1,646	96¢	$1,578	0x8a84fc…
10-12 20:41:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	49	96¢	$47	0x9499d7…
10-12 20:31:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	129	96¢	$124	0xeb39dc…
10-12 20:31:14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	3,177	96¢	$3,047	0xf653f5…
10-12 14:45:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,225	0¢	$3	0x93f16d…
10-12 14:44:00	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x7629d6…
10-12 14:43:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,788	99¢	$2,771	0xc80faf…
10-12 14:22:36	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,482	0¢	$2	0xb3c740…
10-12 14:21:17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xbf8bf9…
10-12 14:21:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,887	99¢	$2,869	0xad4107…
10-11 11:47:51	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,493	98¢	$1,463	0x124fa9…
10-09 08:30:48	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4,833	96¢	$4,649	0xb606ab…
10-09 08:13:21	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	167	96¢	$161	0x9de7dc…
10-09 06:30:22	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	96¢	$4,800	0x2d9612…
10-07 11:22:41	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,573	5¢	$79	0x099f58…
10-07 11:22:23	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,087	5¢	$54	0x5d5acf…
10-07 11:22:14	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	486	5¢	$24	0x14eeb0…
10-06 23:15:50	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	848	77¢	$653	0xf41e4f…
10-06 22:58:42	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	77¢	$10	0xc79ee9…
10-06 22:52:06	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0xc548ef…
10-06 22:17:41	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	77¢	$38	0x9ce864…
10-06 20:01:11	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xb19d46…
10-06 19:52:02	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x599985…
10-06 17:34:09	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	77¢	$10	0x5dd540…
10-06 15:02:45	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	77¢	$31	0xeb9f46…
10-06 14:47:44	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	77¢	$11	0xaa91e8…
10-05 13:27:25	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x1deccf…
10-05 13:27:25	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	68	96¢	$65	0x13df33…
10-05 13:27:23	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	132	96¢	$127	0x400c0e…
10-05 03:42:31	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xc1f26f…
10-05 03:42:29	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x60abd1…
10-05 03:42:28	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x84842d…
10-05 03:42:25	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x23b061…
10-05 03:42:23	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xa7667a…
10-05 03:42:19	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xf19912…
10-05 03:42:17	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x97a024…
10-05 03:42:14	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xff67ee…
10-05 03:42:13	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x6b684c…
10-04 13:21:43	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$39	0xa9d564…
10-04 08:02:05	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x3be4aa…
10-04 08:01:58	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x61edd8…
10-04 07:38:05	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x088343…
10-04 07:37:59	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xc978fd…
10-04 07:37:50	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x0294e3…
10-04 07:32:52	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x81a13a…