Shiny-Extreme-Gray — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$189

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

23.3%

Resolved

Trades

208

lifetime

Volume

$562

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-09

last 08-18 03:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

46% 20% -$86

Politics

42% 15% -$68

Sports

10% 27% -$31

Crypto

2% 50% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	+183	$11	4¢	$7	-$4	08-15 12:46
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+125	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	07-07 16:09
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	05-14 04:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	17	$89	882	882	+0	No	-$29	06-15 05:06
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	7	$32	194	194	+0	No	-$31	06-19 14:27
Trump on $250 bill this year?	4	$23	130	130	+0	open	—	05-31 19:47
ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	2	$20	83	0	+83	Josh Hokit	-$20	06-10 05:47
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	12	$18	763	763	+0	No	-$16	05-15 15:44
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$16	62	62	+0	No	+$2	07-07 13:00
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	2	$16	28	28	+0	No	+$6	06-17 20:05
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	4	$13	92	92	+0	No	-$11	06-18 11:53
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	2	$12	28	28	+0	No	+$2	06-13 00:32
Trump out as President before 2027?	2	$11	183	0	+183	open	—	08-15 12:46
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	4	$10	71	71	+0	Yes	+$0	06-12 06:10
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$10	57	57	+0	No	+$0	06-08 00:28
will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	4	$10	8,500	0	+8,500	No	-$10	06-27 04:35
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$10	53	0	+53	No	-$10	08-15 12:12
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	2	$9	23	23	+0	No	+$5	07-06 13:10
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$8	17	17	+0	open	—	05-17 02:10
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$8	68	68	+0	open	—	06-08 00:21
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	2	$7	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	05-30 16:22
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$6	38	38	+0	open	—	06-27 07:20
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?	1	$6	784	0	+784	No	-$6	06-13 00:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$6	6,000	0	+6,000	Yes	-$6	05-09 05:13
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$5	128	0	+128	No	-$5	08-15 06:47
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies	1	$5	23	0	+23	San Francisco Giants	-$5	05-31 20:41
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	1	$5	28	0	+28	No	-$5	06-26 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	1	$5	15	0	+15	Down	-$5	05-17 01:34
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$4	3	3	+0	Yes	+$2	05-19 19:27
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$4	6	6	+0	No	-$2	06-08 20:33
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Santa Catarina?	1	$4	81	0	+81	Yes	-$4	08-18 03:56
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Pernambuco?	1	$4	100	0	+100	Yes	-$4	08-18 03:55
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	2	$4	20	20	+0	No	-$2	05-16 06:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-18 03:57:09	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Ceará?	No	BUY	114	3¢	$4	0x96851e…
08-18 03:56:45	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Santa Catarina?	No	BUY	81	5¢	$4	0x67c8b3…
08-18 03:56:24	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Pará?	No	BUY	59	7¢	$4	0x77746e…
08-18 03:55:45	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	No	BUY	67	6¢	$4	0x970f40…
08-18 03:55:13	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Pernambuco?	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x45dd42…
08-15 12:46:58	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xd8d9f1…
08-15 12:46:19	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xd5ce74…
08-15 12:12:40	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x82b6ea…
08-15 06:47:43	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	4¢	$5	0x1084e9…
07-09 21:29:31	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x0fc185…
07-09 15:20:52	netanyahu out by july 31	Yes	BUY	118	1¢	$1	0xa97836…
07-08 00:03:01	israel closes its airspace by july 7	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x7e8656…
07-07 23:27:40	mlb atl pit 2026 07 07	Atlanta Braves	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xe4df94…
07-07 22:59:13	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xdd988b…
07-07 22:33:56	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xa9500e…
07-07 16:09:22	Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x16d892…
07-07 13:00:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	62	14¢	$9	0x3df465…
07-06 13:13:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	62	11¢	$7	0x189ce6…
07-06 13:10:53	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	33¢	$7	0x2fe798…
07-03 23:16:11	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	3¢	$3	0x7a57b9…
07-03 23:15:53	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x2c43b5…
07-03 23:15:47	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	4¢	$3	0xfefe25…
07-03 23:14:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0xfd2b67…
07-03 23:14:23	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xf6c846…
07-03 19:12:47	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0xb41704…
06-27 07:23:56	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	6¢	$3	0xf95973…
06-27 07:20:34	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	38	8¢	$3	0xecbc36…
06-27 07:12:01	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x290c6b…
06-27 07:09:02	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x1f9282…
06-27 07:08:59	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x55c737…
06-27 04:35:56	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x406716…
06-27 04:34:32	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xa7b54d…
06-27 04:33:23	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0xd0187e…
06-27 00:06:40	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0x26c6ed…
06-26 19:57:46	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0xabedfb…
06-26 19:57:08	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xace049…
06-26 19:56:29	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x0a6d7e…
06-26 19:55:59	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xdea303…
06-26 15:35:40	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0x0b4787…
06-23 22:13:41	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x852cd5…
06-23 22:13:34	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x775a2b…
06-23 22:12:44	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	10¢	$3	0xe20f7b…
06-23 22:12:31	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x55c965…
06-23 01:26:05	labour leadership election scheduled by december 31 2026 511	No	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xfbfa9a…
06-19 14:27:46	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	194	0¢	$0	0xf1f766…
06-19 05:32:05	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x80cfde…
06-18 11:53:10	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	92	1¢	$1	0xeb61d5…
06-18 01:30:17	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x2c0ce0…
06-17 20:10:23	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	3¢	$2	0xb99da4…
06-17 20:09:07	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	147	2¢	$3	0x18649b…
06-17 20:08:46	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	4¢	$2	0xbc615d…
06-17 20:05:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	38¢	$11	0x12210c…
06-17 00:08:31	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xedf741…
06-16 18:05:58	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf10d72…
06-16 18:05:37	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x8a5c49…
06-16 18:05:20	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x07842f…
06-16 18:05:04	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xb3c7f4…
06-16 18:03:44	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x448f23…
06-16 18:03:01	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x582bc0…
06-16 18:02:43	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x414e28…
06-16 18:02:20	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x6c84f5…
06-16 18:01:55	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0xfd97cb…
06-15 05:14:03	ufc freedom 250 weather delay 20260610012652819	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x67f12d…
06-15 05:13:01	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Ilia Topuria	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd61a2d…
06-15 05:06:46	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	138	1¢	$1	0x10e93f…
06-13 02:08:00	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x8070da…
06-13 00:32:49	Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?	Yes	BUY	784	1¢	$6	0xcf53bc…
06-13 00:32:33	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	25¢	$7	0xcbfea8…
06-12 23:10:00	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	13¢	$6	0xdb63cc…
06-12 06:12:07	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa36ec7…
06-12 06:10:25	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0xf347bd…
06-12 03:46:00	Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x2323a7…
06-12 03:37:45	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x3ea6dd…
06-12 03:37:30	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x06478c…
06-12 03:36:28	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xd94026…
06-12 02:54:22	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xf86f46…
06-11 19:27:31	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	138	3¢	$4	0x658d94…
06-11 18:08:27	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	714	2¢	$15	0x74f860…
06-10 15:20:30	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	222	4¢	$8	0xaf9eed…
06-10 13:52:25	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	52	6¢	$3	0x8ddb9b…
06-10 13:29:22	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	115	5¢	$6	0x1b4409…
06-10 13:29:21	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	115	5¢	$6	0x8add57…
06-10 12:44:18	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x8922a5…
06-10 06:02:06	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xcd7645…
06-10 06:01:46	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x9f4aff…
06-10 05:47:01	ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	Derrick Lewis	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x061431…
06-10 03:37:43	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	127	8¢	$10	0xbc56c3…
06-10 01:20:45	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x5cbd57…
06-09 23:31:24	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	43	10¢	$4	0xc80615…
06-09 22:04:15	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x28991c…
06-09 21:27:52	ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	Derrick Lewis	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xc706bb…
06-08 20:35:48	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	26	11¢	$3	0xf6d9c0…
06-08 20:35:15	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	48	1¢	$0	0x4a963e…
06-08 20:34:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0x4e3fc6…
06-08 20:34:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0xa4b115…
06-08 20:34:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0xb58106…
06-08 20:33:48	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0x851f23…
06-08 17:36:31	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x689c27…
06-08 17:34:21	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	12	16¢	$2	0x4475e4…
06-08 11:38:46	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	18	22¢	$4	0x520171…