Artistic-Firm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$529

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

63.6%

Resolved

3,889

Trades

14,120

lifetime

Volume

$10.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$25

10 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 10-26 00:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 206 days

Categories

Politics

48% 49% +$22

Other

43% 15% -$443

Crypto

4% 19% -$39

Sports

2% 11% -$42

Tech

1% 35% -$21

Pop-Culture

0% 17% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	-5	-$5	96¢	$-5	$0	07-25 03:55
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+5	$4	92¢	$5	+$1	05-08 14:16
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+10	$4	42¢	$4	+$0	07-11 03:03
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+5	$4	82¢	$4	+$0	07-31 14:59
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Yes	+79	$5	4¢	$3	-$1	07-17 18:58
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	+5	$4	40¢	$2	-$2	08-13 15:55
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	-29	-$6	3¢	$-1	+$5	05-08 03:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+5	$2	11¢	$1	-$2	08-13 00:59
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	+10	$0	2¢	$0	$0	10-01 19:01
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+27	$5	0¢	$0	-$5	06-02 18:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trumps approval rating be between 41pt5 and 41pt9 on february 27 2026	6	$210	399	310	+88	No	+$209	02-28 15:59
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	23	$131	101	96	+5	Yes	+$11	03-03 21:18
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	17	$100	61	51	+10	No	+$3	02-28 07:11
will trump say border 7 times during the 2026 state of the union address 135	2	$91	46	46	+0	Yes	+$0	02-25 05:09
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 26	4	$85	81	81	+0	No	+$75	02-27 05:58
will trump say million or billion or trillion 15 times during the 2026 state of the union address 296	2	$73	38	38	+0	Yes	+$3	02-25 05:10
will the us conduct a cyberattack on iran by march 31	5	$70	79	79	+0	No	+$40	03-03 05:51
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	10	$68	35	35	+0	Yes	+$1	03-01 17:51
will iran strike cyprus in march	12	$66	61	61	+0	No	+$10	03-05 04:56
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	26	$63	80	56	+24	Yes	-$2	03-07 07:06
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	16	$63	63	63	+0	No	+$10	03-05 04:55
will trump say transgender this week march 1	8	$61	43	52	-8	Yes	+$15	02-28 00:23
will jos mara balcazar be the next president of peru	60	$58	1,052	387	+665	Yes	+$45	02-19 08:08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	7	$53	31	23	+8	Yes	+$1	03-04 16:28
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	11	$53	40	40	+0	Yes	-$17	02-28 08:34
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	11	$52	55	60	-5	Yes	-$11	03-04 19:56
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	12	$50	30	40	-10	Yes	+$8	02-27 22:02
will james talarico be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	9	$48	35	35	+0	Yes	$0	03-02 13:34
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	6	$48	25	45	-20	Yes	+$3	03-08 20:01
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 6	5	$46	23	38	-15	No	+$13	03-07 07:04
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	9	$44	38	38	+0	No	+$0	03-27 04:09
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	8	$44	30	16	+14	No	+$2	02-24 19:06
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	11	$43	42	33	+10	Yes	-$13	02-28 06:47
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	13	$43	66	71	-5	No	+$8	03-29 03:01
will trump say job 20 times during the 2026 state of the union address 563	9	$41	39	39	+0	No	+$6	02-25 03:05
will rail be said during the next episode of the all in podcast	9	$41	33	31	+2	Yes	+$23	03-06 12:51
cs2 zerote sta6 2026 03 01	6	$41	159	59	+100	ex-Zero Tenacity	+$37	03-01 18:39
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	7	$40	25	15	+10	No	+$1	03-04 18:32
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	9	$40	69	22	+47	No	-$3	03-06 19:37
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 1 334	5	$38	21	21	+0	No	+$2	03-01 15:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 00:15:47	Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa5efee…
10-24 04:02:11	Real American Freestyle: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dillon Danis	Danis	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x3ebc14…
10-19 23:56:15	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x8a4744…
10-19 23:56:15	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x7a7682…
10-15 01:36:59	Will Shifters make a roster change by December?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x005cf8…
10-11 09:28:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x809c97…
10-08 18:38:30	Will Dignitas make a roster change by December?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xcc2ab3…
10-08 16:17:30	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on October 8?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x653c79…
10-08 13:23:35	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on October 8?	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xc0f2ed…
10-08 13:21:11	Will Team Vitality Make the Demacia Cup Global Invitational 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x5c364f…
10-08 12:15:09	Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Group B	MOUZ NXT	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x51355e…
10-08 11:45:51	LoL: Natus Vincere vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	JD Gaming	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x07a739…
10-08 11:45:50	LoL: Natus Vincere vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	JD Gaming	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xe2c6cd…
10-08 11:45:48	LoL: Natus Vincere vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	JD Gaming	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x8544b4…
10-08 11:45:41	LoL: Natus Vincere vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	JD Gaming	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0xae3626…
10-08 08:30:26	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on October 8?	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x249837…
10-08 01:22:07	Timberwolves vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5	Over	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x6b6dcb…
10-08 01:21:52	Timberwolves vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5	Over	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xf611aa…
10-08 01:13:31	Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)	Timberwolves	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x18dca2…
10-07 17:52:01	wti closes above 94 on october 8 2026	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0xef23f7…
10-07 17:47:07	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on October 8?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x363dff…
10-07 17:05:01	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?	No	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0xcc54dc…
10-07 17:05:01	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?	No	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0x7c95a8…
10-07 13:21:05	Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs OG (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group A	G2 Ares	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x523690…
10-07 12:15:53	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $356 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xbfcec7…
10-06 10:24:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x3961ed…
10-06 01:31:53	Spread: Hawks (-8.5)	Hawks	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x60ba99…
10-06 01:31:17	Spread: Hawks (-5.5)	Hawks	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xb08243…
10-06 01:29:02	Spread: Hawks (-8.5)	Hawks	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xc1bef8…
10-05 18:27:17	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?	No	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x4e35fc…
10-05 18:16:56	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.29% in October?	No	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x2b87bb…
10-05 17:38:53	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.29% in October?	No	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x33ba5e…
10-05 17:38:49	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.29% in October?	No	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x240ec3…
10-05 12:45:41	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $356 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x43db1e…
10-05 04:04:34	will trump say bitcoin this week 20261004	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xf689ad…
10-05 03:50:19	will xrp reach 1pt6 on october 4 2026	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x518aaf…
10-04 20:36:43	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" this week?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x43521c…
10-04 20:11:22	Will Trump say "Tiger" this week?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x866b59…
10-04 20:10:16	Will Trump say "Tiger" this week?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0xf58ed1…
10-04 18:42:23	Will Trump say "Pearl Harbor" this week?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x1ad2e8…
10-04 15:34:52	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xb99cbf…
10-04 15:32:23	Solana Up or Down - October 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x62792c…
10-04 15:28:53	Solana Up or Down - October 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x5869aa…
10-04 15:27:53	Solana Up or Down - October 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x8dd06b…
10-04 14:57:49	cs2 g2 1win 2026 10 04 game1	G2	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0x440ce2…
10-04 13:55:23	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xf02038…
10-04 13:55:23	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x0834ba…
10-04 12:36:40	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase September 29-October 5?	Yes	SELL	30	20¢	$6	0x4ede0f…
10-03 16:02:12	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x920862…
10-01 19:01:44	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xb3aeaa…
10-01 17:25:26	Game 3: Odd/Even Total Kills?	Odd	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x327c3d…
10-01 17:25:17	Game 3: Odd/Even Total Kills?	Odd	BUY	63	1¢	$1	0xe1933c…
10-01 17:24:36	LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	Frites Esports Club	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xa8779b…
10-01 17:24:15	LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	Frites Esports Club	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xe67910…
10-01 17:24:15	LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	Frites Esports Club	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x8beed4…
10-01 17:24:15	LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	Frites Esports Club	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x4f0363…
10-01 17:24:15	LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	Frites Esports Club	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x3614ca…
10-01 17:24:11	LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	Frites Esports Club	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0xb4ae18…
10-01 17:23:30	Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?	Odd	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xe141f4…
10-01 17:17:36	LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	Frites Esports Club	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xe5c223…
10-01 17:08:18	LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	Frites Esports Club	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x7f6aee…
10-01 17:08:17	LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	Frites Esports Club	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x84640a…
10-01 17:08:17	LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	Frites Esports Club	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x5b2c9c…
10-01 16:29:27	lol bw fec 2026 10 01 game2	Bushido Wildcats	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x5cadc1…
10-01 16:21:18	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 7.25% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x9923cb…
10-01 16:00:54	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 7.25% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xe6211a…
10-01 14:36:06	Counter-Strike: Low Cortisol vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Playoffs	Low Cortisol	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0xdf0d3d…
10-01 13:49:06	Counter-Strike: Low Cortisol vs BESTIA Academy - Map 1 Winner	Low Cortisol	SELL	8	16¢	$1	0x059a4c…
10-01 13:48:59	Counter-Strike: Low Cortisol vs BESTIA Academy - Map 1 Winner	Low Cortisol	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x84f026…
10-01 12:54:24	Will an F1 race be held in Qatar in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xe9b3f3…
10-01 12:32:02	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase September 29-October 5?	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0xcd093a…
10-01 12:28:59	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x35cb07…
10-01 12:28:53	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x5fc363…
10-01 11:36:17	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xb40a6f…
10-01 10:40:39	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	0¢	$0	0x1e1332…
09-30 19:50:21	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x78deac…
09-25 20:36:54	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x674cb4…
09-25 18:01:20	will ng dip to 3 10 by september 21 2026	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xb883fb…
09-25 16:24:48	will ng reach 3 80 by september 21 2026	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x505faf…
09-25 16:24:36	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x2f214d…
09-25 16:23:29	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x711d36…
09-25 12:29:03	will ng dip to 3 00 by september 21 2026 from september 24	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x14d7bb…
09-25 12:26:29	Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x5e692b…
09-25 12:03:47	cs2 havu 4m1 2026 09 25 game1	Four Magic	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xf62f95…
09-25 11:59:39	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xca651d…
09-24 15:15:35	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x3507f8…
09-21 22:50:18	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.125T by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x3a6b5b…
09-21 20:49:27	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xce4c89…
09-21 18:11:33	CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xdadb8d…
09-21 15:02:00	CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xec23cb…
09-21 13:30:03	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xd2ecce…
09-20 16:41:25	Rocket League: NRG Esports vs Team Falcons (BO7) - RLCS World Championship Playoffs	NRG Esports	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xdf75f1…
09-20 16:33:51	Games Total: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x066aa7…
09-20 06:53:00	Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0xbc0279…
09-20 02:16:06	Coleraine FC vs. Limavady United FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x0d9b07…
09-20 02:15:58	Coleraine FC vs. Limavady United FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xb2b3e0…
09-20 00:31:39	nirl1 col lim 2026 09 19 second half total 2pt5	Over	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x433f5e…
09-19 12:27:06	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x7d714c…
09-19 09:37:13	Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xdef8a8…
09-19 08:59:46	mlbb sys gl 2026 09 19 game1	See You Soon	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x7491f3…