Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$950

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

46.2%

Resolved

2,928

Trades

7,041

lifetime

Volume

$54.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-06

last 10-27 03:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 121 days

Categories

Other

53% 42% -$713

Crypto

22% 60% -$124

Politics

16% 20% -$99

Sports

6% 41% +$12

Tech

4% 14% -$25

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 83 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes		+0	$1	68¢	$0	-$1	10-21 19:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	2	$280	200	200	+0	open	—	10-20 19:56
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	4	$243	178	178	+0	open	—	10-18 22:40
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	16	$167	160	160	+0	open	—	10-17 02:17
Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?	2	$151	94	94	+0	open	—	10-20 20:58
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	9	$149	110	110	+0	open	—	09-29 05:50
Will "Tangles" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	4	$148	198	100	+98	open	—	10-26 10:20
mwoh slo fin 2026 02 21	15	$143	96	96	-0	Finland	-$1	02-21 08:14
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?	13	$143	153	153	+0	open	—	10-21 06:30
Will "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	2	$142	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 03:07
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	13	$141	120	120	+0	open	—	10-20 12:16
Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?	10	$138	111	111	+0	open	—	09-23 13:12
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?	3	$137	100	100	+0	open	—	10-20 22:13
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	10	$135	119	119	+0	open	—	09-26 06:43
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	8	$135	130	130	+0	open	—	10-16 00:26
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	5	$134	107	107	+0	Yes	-$2	09-06 20:35
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	12	$131	108	108	+0	open	—	09-30 20:07
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	10	$125	98	98	+0	open	—	10-20 17:06
Will Conor McGregor fight Max Holloway next?	5	$124	77	77	+0	open	—	10-12 11:48
Will Lionel Messi win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player?	10	$123	146	146	+0	open	—	09-26 08:10
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	3	$119	214	214	+0	open	—	10-16 19:25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	2	$117	100	100	+0	open	—	10-21 19:04
Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	7	$114	105	105	+0	open	—	10-13 16:23
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?	6	$111	110	110	+0	open	—	09-24 01:39
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	4	$109	111	111	+0	open	—	09-11 10:37
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	2	$108	200	200	+0	open	—	10-19 04:06
Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	3	$107	130	130	+0	open	—	10-27 00:31
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	5	$107	111	111	+0	open	—	09-10 13:58
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	4	$107	75	75	+0	open	—	10-16 00:07
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% before 2027?	5	$104	110	55	+55	Yes	-$23	09-23 13:44
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026?	6	$103	75	75	+0	open	—	10-06 09:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 03:07:56	Will "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0x534e03…
10-27 02:30:51	Will "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x2e5c94…
10-27 00:31:56	Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	66	42¢	$28	0xd33e8e…
10-27 00:11:18	Will Drake headline Coachella 2027?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x3d111f…
10-27 00:10:42	Will Drake headline Coachella 2027?	No	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x892281…
10-26 23:16:48	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-02 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	57	6¢	$3	0xeac56b…
10-26 22:30:12	Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	70	38¢	$27	0xdfbc02…
10-26 22:06:48	Will "Forgotten Island" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0x29829d…
10-26 22:04:12	Will "Forgotten Island" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x6ffd78…
10-26 22:04:12	Will "Forgotten Island" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x6c8bc0…
10-26 21:39:39	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	7	64¢	$5	0xc2ad43…
10-26 21:39:39	Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	64	39¢	$25	0x8f8964…
10-26 21:36:03	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x3ca2e2…
10-26 20:43:54	Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	130	42¢	$55	0x704605…
10-26 19:55:08	Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	18	76¢	$14	0x5cba15…
10-26 19:55:06	Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	26	76¢	$20	0x1ac648…
10-26 19:02:45	Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0xf0bf70…
10-26 19:02:02	Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0xd8e682…
10-26 18:29:53	Will Andrew Garfield win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	34	28¢	$10	0x21eeba…
10-26 18:28:53	Will Andrew Garfield win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0xe8e2a1…
10-26 18:28:50	Will Andrew Garfield win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	13	28¢	$4	0xd01fe7…
10-26 18:09:57	Will "Your God is Sleeping" from Behemoth! be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	26	11¢	$3	0x0f4220…
10-26 18:08:57	Will "Your God is Sleeping" from Behemoth! be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0xeefcf6…
10-26 18:08:57	Will "Your God is Sleeping" from Behemoth! be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	34	15¢	$5	0x569dc7…
10-26 17:49:33	Will "Your God is Sleeping" from Behemoth! be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	110	32¢	$35	0xf12717…
10-26 17:40:44	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xf89d14…
10-26 16:52:06	Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	44	76¢	$33	0x530e38…
10-26 10:20:05	Will "Tangles" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	98	49¢	$48	0x955bed…
10-26 09:59:30	Will "Tangles" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	98	50¢	$49	0xf0e900…
10-26 09:59:30	Will "Tangles" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x27614d…
10-26 09:37:08	Will Chris Minns be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Yes	SELL	15	46¢	$7	0x32e21e…
10-26 09:33:36	Will Chris Minns be the next Premier of New South Wales?	Yes	BUY	15	49¢	$7	0x883637…
10-26 09:28:23	Will "Tangles" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x40d26b…
10-26 09:27:36	Will Adekunle Adenuga win the 2027 Ogun State gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xf8ebd0…
10-26 09:27:36	Will Adekunle Adenuga win the 2027 Ogun State gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xdc75c0…
10-26 08:20:03	Will "Hoppers" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0x300cad…
10-26 08:19:05	Will "Hoppers" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xc03214…
10-26 07:59:11	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xf9c843…
10-26 06:38:53	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x9585e8…
10-26 06:36:51	Will Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	No	SELL	87	3¢	$3	0x174c9e…
10-26 06:33:45	Will the Nepali Congress candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x6ffbe2…
10-26 06:33:26	Will Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	No	SELL	13	3¢	$0	0x4a0342…
10-26 02:36:26	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xc3f86e…
10-26 02:36:26	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?	No	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0x62a928…
10-26 00:17:09	Will Nayib Bukele win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x460b33…
10-25 23:54:38	Will Nayib Bukele win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?	No	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x79b0e1…
10-25 22:58:02	Will Labor hold the most seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council after the next New South Wales state election?	No	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0x67c08d…
10-25 22:37:11	Will Marco Bonilla Mendoza win the 2027 Chihuahua Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	12	45¢	$5	0xf527f4…
10-25 22:27:09	Will Marco Bonilla Mendoza win the 2027 Chihuahua Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0x82cade…
10-25 22:26:08	Will Marco Bonilla Mendoza win the 2027 Chihuahua Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x1fb7d3…
10-25 21:44:50	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xfe55be…
10-25 09:49:27	Will Vance peak at Category 2?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xf47df5…
10-25 08:07:08	Will PP win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x515f9a…
10-25 06:40:11	Will PP win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xc2dc3d…
10-25 05:37:08	Will Grecia Quiroz win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0xe9fcba…
10-25 05:36:15	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Yucatán Congress election?	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x907a3f…
10-25 05:36:14	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Yucatán Congress election?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xf27c2b…
10-25 05:33:20	Will Labor hold the most seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council after the next New South Wales state election?	No	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x6cabf2…
10-25 05:31:36	Will Labor hold the most seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council after the next New South Wales state election?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x233294…
10-25 05:25:42	Will Grecia Quiroz win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x96fe46…
10-25 03:13:32	US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x8d49a2…
10-25 01:25:48	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	No	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xa05849…
10-25 01:25:47	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x8d9175…
10-25 00:35:50	US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x904cf6…
10-24 23:57:09	Will PSOE win the most seats in the Balearic Islands in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x16a8d0…
10-24 23:45:18	Will Liberal–National win the second-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xffae54…
10-24 23:37:36	Will PSOE win the most seats in the Balearic Islands in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xc82ff5…
10-24 23:21:24	Will Liberal–National win the second-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xfab6d3…
10-24 23:17:11	Will PP win the most seats in Cuenca in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	13	54¢	$7	0xf118d8…
10-24 23:11:36	Will PP win the most seats in Cuenca in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	13	54¢	$7	0xc7727e…
10-24 21:07:11	Will Imelda Castro Castro win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x992302…
10-24 21:05:41	Will PSOE win the most seats in Asturias in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0xc12710…
10-24 21:05:41	Will PSOE win the most seats in Asturias in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x0c24b2…
10-24 18:27:12	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?	No	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x5d1419…
10-24 17:50:14	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?	No	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x862cc6…
10-24 17:50:14	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x1d9117…
10-24 17:04:47	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	No	SELL	26	21¢	$5	0xd3692d…
10-24 17:04:45	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	No	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0x4266a7…
10-24 17:04:44	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	No	BUY	26	24¢	$6	0x94c079…
10-24 17:04:44	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?	No	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0x5e3552…
10-24 16:15:35	Will PSOE win the most seats in Asturias in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x4a7248…
10-24 14:02:33	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0xed8df6…
10-24 14:02:32	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x36bde2…
10-24 12:44:21	No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x539c01…
10-24 10:46:29	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Yes	SELL	18	13¢	$2	0x398dd7…
10-24 10:46:26	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Yes	BUY	18	13¢	$2	0x5017f8…
10-24 09:58:17	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0x13781e…
10-24 09:58:15	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x6087ac…
10-24 09:19:26	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x963d88…
10-24 08:02:33	Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x6602aa…
10-24 08:02:32	Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x46d42b…
10-24 07:29:06	Will Imelda Castro Castro win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x6e975c…
10-24 06:47:51	Will Isamaa win the most seats in the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x6690ac…
10-24 06:47:48	Will Isamaa win the most seats in the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x55610b…
10-24 05:27:09	Will PSOE win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x4d65d2…
10-24 04:55:44	Will Vox win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	11	32¢	$4	0xcfd6a7…
10-24 04:55:39	Will PSOE win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	1	47¢	$1	0x02e1ce…
10-24 04:55:36	Will PSOE win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	19	47¢	$9	0xac29cf…
10-24 04:55:12	Will Vox win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	11	33¢	$4	0x7d7a70…
10-24 01:20:09	Will the Rastriya Swatantra Party candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x4c7f39…