Mushy-Puritan — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.59K

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

27.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,512

lifetime

Volume

$40.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

$345

1 position

First seen

2026-01-20

last 06-08 19:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

48% 50% $-1,592

Politics

38% 33% +$3

Other

13% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 367 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+413	$331	84¢	$345	+$14	06-08 19:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	34	$4.6K	3,501	3,501	+0	open	—	03-06 20:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	74	$3.2K	3,718	0	+3,718	open	—	06-01 22:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	34	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-17 21:45
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	37	$1.6K	8,554	0	+8,554	open	—	04-21 18:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	13	$1.5K	1,800	0	+1,800	open	—	05-28 14:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	44	$1.4K	1,933	1,730	+204	Up	$-859	05-11 21:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	33	$1.3K	694	694	+0	open	—	05-20 08:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	77	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-17 21:53
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	15	$1.1K	4,641	4,641	+0	open	—	04-21 17:28
us strikes iraq by february 28	17	$1.0K	1,924	2,284	-360	open	—	03-03 22:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	39	$969	1,235	800	+435	open	—	05-18 16:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	22	$914	762	762	+0	open	—	05-18 16:19
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	2	$900	600	600	+0	open	—	05-24 16:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	47	$768	796	796	+0	Down	$-221	05-11 22:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	40	$749	1,660	1,532	+127	open	—	05-18 17:10
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	4	$730	7,384	7,384	+0	open	—	04-23 20:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	2	$729	502	502	+0	open	—	05-24 17:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	4	$727	917	0	+917	open	—	05-25 07:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	54	$656	1,095	1,095	+0	Up	$-549	05-11 21:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	55	$619	656	362	+294	open	—	05-18 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	18	$582	336	336	+0	open	—	05-18 18:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	32	$580	400	400	+0	open	—	05-18 16:57
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	7	$544	600	0	+600	open	—	05-17 20:33
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	6	$513	551	551	+0	open	—	04-27 18:14
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	11	$508	890	0	+890	open	—	05-29 21:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	7	$504	564	0	+564	open	—	05-18 15:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	14	$495	619	0	+619	Down	+$124	05-11 21:25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	6	$422	388	100	+288	open	—	05-20 15:22
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	14	$387	615	14	+601	open	—	05-17 22:41
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May?	2	$376	200	200	+0	open	—	05-25 07:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 19:11:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	187	84¢	$157	0x04b6e4…
06-03 11:15:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	225	77¢	$173	0x2b4cb2…
06-02 10:10:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xc01604…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	145	85¢	$123	0xfe8c7a…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xf8e77b…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xf8d07b…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xef4aa3…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	31	85¢	$26	0xebb5dc…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	401	85¢	$341	0xd5c6f1…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	166	85¢	$141	0xd3db81…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0xcd364d…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xc964c0…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0xb3ed02…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0xafe363…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xadefc2…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0xad9d79…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x9ec21f…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x9cf832…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x9c662a…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x8f8861…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x8df47f…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x8d08f6…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0x89f40b…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x887445…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0x87e774…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x843f02…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x7db4fe…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0x7d0ee5…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0x789b0d…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$5	0x7363e0…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	27	85¢	$23	0x711d03…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	74	85¢	$63	0x6d6bf9…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	65	85¢	$55	0x67f9a7…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x629db2…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	277	85¢	$235	0x62669b…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x5e9674…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	150	85¢	$128	0x5cf380…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	400	85¢	$340	0x5434fc…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	83	85¢	$71	0x4cb35a…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x4579f8…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x41b630…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x3e9d15…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x3e90e9…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x3c5d59…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0x3b4b2c…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	27	85¢	$23	0x3b346b…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	78	85¢	$66	0x37597d…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x351696…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x26a645…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	21	85¢	$18	0x216979…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	78	85¢	$67	0x215690…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0x1e42a7…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	37	85¢	$31	0x1de4a7…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	32	85¢	$27	0x12981f…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x089823…
06-01 22:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	32	85¢	$27	0x0489ea…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xf38acd…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	85¢	$10	0xebc6b7…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xe0874e…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0xd88af6…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0xa25ef5…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x94576d…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x931d49…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x92c004…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	25	85¢	$21	0x7dbb31…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x79e6c4…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x65116c…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x5b68eb…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x5ac272…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x58e87e…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	62	85¢	$53	0x532d22…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x3c8828…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0x315a50…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x252b7f…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	85¢	$10	0x1e0eda…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x15f6b1…
06-01 22:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	85¢	$10	0x0e77a8…
06-01 21:50:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	122	99¢	$121	0x163952…
05-31 20:34:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	81	91¢	$74	0x15a706…
05-31 20:33:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$37	0x45ade3…
05-29 21:06:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	52	65¢	$34	0x6f7e23…
05-28 14:16:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x4c8f97…
05-28 14:14:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	195	80¢	$156	0x845d3f…
05-28 14:13:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xb34ea9…
05-27 16:53:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0xeeff3e…
05-27 16:53:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	17	85¢	$15	0x3c37a9…
05-27 16:47:07	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0xd70b90…
05-27 16:33:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	167	72¢	$120	0xa27d33…
05-27 16:31:13	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	117	72¢	$84	0xa1af95…
05-27 16:31:11	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	72¢	$21	0xbdd8c4…
05-27 16:22:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	600	83¢	$498	0x108be9…
05-25 07:48:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	217	93¢	$202	0xe533cb…
05-25 07:45:35	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x9a70d8…
05-24 20:15:51	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x99b8a3…
05-24 20:15:49	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x8108c9…
05-24 18:50:29	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	46	71¢	$32	0x5b57e3…
05-24 18:23:53	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x26f5aa…
05-24 17:53:40	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	52	71¢	$37	0x9fa986…
05-24 17:50:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	114	65¢	$74	0x5c1cb3…
05-24 17:48:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	94	65¢	$61	0x7ebd8e…