Cluttered-Century — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$95

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

98.7%

Resolved

Trades

159

lifetime

Volume

$20.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$131

Open exposure

$886

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-28 01:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Other

81% 96% -$41

Politics

10% 100% +$97

Crypto

6% 100% +$15

Sports

3% 100% +$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+550	$523	98¢	$540	+$17	10-28 01:28
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+265	$246	97¢	$258	+$13	08-20 07:23
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	-120	-$77	66¢	$-79	-$2	05-15 14:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+100	$62	8¢	$8	-$54	07-30 08:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 28?	1	$1.1K	1,066	0	+1,066	Yes	+$1	04-28 09:44
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 22 2026 22corbelow	1	$1.1K	1,065	0	+1,065	No	+$1	04-21 02:01
will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 april 19	2	$997	1,001	0	+1,001	No	+$4	04-15 08:23
will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	3	$946	958	0	+958	No	+$12	04-11 13:33
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	1	$925	927	0	+927	No	+$2	06-25 08:40
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 16?	1	$596	597	0	+597	No	+$1	05-16 01:38
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	2	$523	550	0	+550	open	—	10-28 01:28
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 26?	1	$503	506	0	+506	No	+$3	05-25 09:31
will the us strike 7 countries in january 2026 877	1	$488	490	0	+490	No	+$2	01-29 07:38
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 15?	1	$473	482	0	+482	No	+$9	06-14 03:20
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 6?	1	$463	464	0	+464	No	+$1	07-06 07:08
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on May 13?	1	$459	460	0	+460	No	+$1	05-12 07:40
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	3	$434	245	245	+0	Yes	+$5	05-19 01:01
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on May 30?	1	$423	424	0	+424	Yes	+$1	05-30 12:59
trump out as president by march 31	2	$401	202	202	+0	No	+$1	03-21 03:53
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 30?	4	$381	381	0	+381	No	+$0	04-30 09:01
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026	3	$378	458	0	+458	Yes	+$80	02-05 03:25
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on May 12?	6	$368	368	0	+368	No	+$1	05-11 21:54
will silver si hit high 190 by end of february 182	1	$367	370	0	+370	No	+$3	02-08 08:15
ethereum all time high by march 31 2026	1	$359	361	0	+361	No	+$1	03-21 04:02
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	2	$334	336	0	+336	No	+$2	09-29 03:46
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 13?	1	$328	330	0	+330	No	+$2	05-13 09:45
mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	2	$316	161	161	+0	No	+$0	03-21 03:54
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 30?	1	$298	300	0	+300	No	+$2	04-30 08:59
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?	1	$296	297	0	+297	No	+$1	05-13 09:51
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on May 29?	1	$283	284	0	+284	No	+$1	05-28 14:08
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on May 31?	1	$251	253	0	+253	Yes	+$3	05-31 21:56
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$246	265	0	+265	open	—	08-20 07:23
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on July 4?	1	$236	236	0	+236	No	+$0	07-04 12:05
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15?	1	$223	225	0	+225	No	+$2	06-14 03:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 01:28:12	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xa66a52…
10-28 01:23:56	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0x8caa67…
10-07 03:44:59	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	BUY	170	99¢	$168	0x3dd5ce…
10-07 03:00:05	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x83a9e9…
10-07 03:00:03	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x7a46bc…
10-07 02:59:39	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x650d44…
10-07 02:59:14	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	No	BUY	71	100¢	$71	0x534beb…
09-29 03:46:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	236	100¢	$236	0xd84596…
09-29 03:21:30	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before october 31 2026	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xce7f28…
09-10 02:43:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xc87bc1…
08-20 07:23:40	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	146	94¢	$137	0x85274a…
08-20 07:19:01	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x8b9c6e…
08-20 07:15:45	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xf1afea…
08-20 07:14:42	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x19b26b…
08-20 07:14:18	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xbc0d15…
08-03 11:13:51	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x204fe8…
07-30 08:54:36	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of July?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x467e80…
07-30 08:53:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x2de59e…
07-13 18:47:47	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	119	91¢	$108	0xa4fc3f…
07-13 10:25:16	will bitcoin dip to 62pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$45	0x75d92e…
07-13 10:21:53	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$476	0x18fa24…
07-13 09:50:22	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	17¢	$35	0xfdf39a…
07-06 07:08:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 6?	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x7851eb…
07-06 07:08:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 6?	No	BUY	464	100¢	$463	0x38e6ed…
07-06 07:07:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 6?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x1acaed…
07-06 07:07:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x53cebd…
07-05 08:16:29	will bitcoin dip to 40k in july 2026	No	BUY	52	99¢	$51	0xffc529…
07-05 08:00:37	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xaf83f7…
07-05 08:00:37	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x71d183…
07-05 07:58:25	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe41f65…
07-05 07:55:59	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3517ff…
07-05 07:54:41	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf80763…
07-05 07:51:46	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbe9696…
07-05 07:51:38	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9f5a8e…
07-05 07:48:40	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x075ac3…
07-05 07:46:29	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb3c47e…
07-05 07:42:01	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x57d665…
07-05 07:38:43	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xaa057b…
07-05 07:36:31	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7c7fa9…
07-05 07:36:16	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x88a971…
07-05 07:31:43	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf364ea…
07-05 07:30:46	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3dad0e…
07-05 07:26:13	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x81dcca…
07-05 07:23:31	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xafd2c8…
07-05 07:23:29	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x760591…
07-05 07:19:20	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xcce554…
07-05 07:18:14	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x312a04…
07-05 05:51:07	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x87e5e4…
07-05 03:58:40	will xrp reach 3 in july 2026	No	BUY	130	100¢	$129	0xbe5732…
07-05 03:38:28	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	54	98¢	$53	0xbb7928…
07-05 03:16:20	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xb43f8f…
07-05 03:15:08	Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x51e400…
07-04 12:05:22	Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on July 4?	No	BUY	236	100¢	$236	0x4a369c…
06-30 02:23:26	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0x2a1aab…
06-25 08:40:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	BUY	927	100¢	$925	0xe5f74e…
06-14 03:24:39	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15?	No	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0x86def9…
06-14 03:23:13	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 15?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x91c357…
06-14 03:22:10	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15?	No	BUY	225	99¢	$223	0x715f92…
06-14 03:20:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 15?	No	BUY	482	98¢	$473	0x5ff7e1…
06-14 03:16:42	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xf2ad75…
05-31 21:57:11	Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on May 31?	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x1c9648…
05-31 21:56:49	Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	253	99¢	$251	0x5b5ce4…
05-31 20:42:07	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	83	98¢	$81	0xb8e387…
05-30 13:04:23	Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	24	94¢	$23	0x2c3122…
05-30 13:03:55	Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	BUY	64	96¢	$61	0x8ecb9e…
05-30 12:59:48	Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	424	100¢	$423	0x2a7e9f…
05-28 14:10:07	Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on May 28?	No	BUY	222	100¢	$222	0x09689b…
05-28 14:08:57	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on May 29?	No	BUY	284	100¢	$283	0x389733…
05-25 09:36:09	Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0xa02707…
05-25 09:31:56	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 26?	No	BUY	506	99¢	$503	0xca0eb2…
05-25 09:27:59	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x3ed031…
05-25 09:24:59	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x57ef17…
05-25 09:11:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x35a329…
05-19 01:01:53	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	245	90¢	$220	0x2d418a…
05-16 01:38:56	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 16?	No	BUY	597	100¢	$596	0x7de546…
05-16 01:33:48	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on May 16?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xe3862d…
05-15 14:14:14	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 16?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x3bf48b…
05-15 14:05:59	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 17?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$80	0xee70de…
05-15 14:05:35	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16?	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xdf0f85…
05-15 14:02:38	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x68629e…
05-15 14:02:06	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	120	64¢	$77	0x715384…
05-13 09:51:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?	No	BUY	297	100¢	$296	0x2ae958…
05-13 09:45:23	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 13?	No	BUY	330	99¢	$328	0x7f9a30…
05-12 07:56:45	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 12?	No	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0x262f90…
05-12 07:56:41	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 12?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x4ce43f…
05-12 07:40:07	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on May 13?	No	BUY	460	100¢	$459	0xc02270…
05-12 07:38:13	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 12?	No	BUY	109	99¢	$108	0xb50702…
05-12 07:22:21	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on May 13?	No	BUY	87	100¢	$87	0xa8d7b3…
05-12 07:21:53	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or below on May 12?	No	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0x7b9ab2…
05-11 21:54:32	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on May 12?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x127938…
05-11 21:22:03	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on May 12?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xcdab2f…
05-11 21:21:45	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on May 12?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdde8de…
05-11 21:21:35	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on May 12?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x544885…
05-11 18:32:58	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on May 12?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf15bef…
05-11 10:26:14	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on May 12?	No	BUY	346	100¢	$346	0x1e39e5…
05-11 10:25:51	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on May 12?	No	BUY	136	100¢	$135	0x99cfbd…
05-11 10:17:47	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 11?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$170	0x7face0…
05-11 09:55:07	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x6fec7c…
05-11 09:50:41	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0x1a0dc5…
05-11 09:49:06	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	88¢	$175	0xb8cdf5…