Realized P&L (7d)
-$7.48K
Unrealized P&L
+$8.33K
Hit rate
12.4%
Resolved (7d)
5
Trades (7d)
37
2,635 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$12.2K
$869.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$330
Open exposure
$95.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-12 17:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 70 days
Categories
Politics
56% 66% +$128,628
Other
43% 84% +$30,953
Tech
1% 100% +$118
Crypto
0% 33% -$1,388
Sports
0% 100% +$35
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
38 active days in 12wk • peak 119 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +17,150 $13,134 94¢ $16.0K +$2,901 11-09 12:07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? No +10,000 $9,050 99¢ $9.9K +$825 11-04 16:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +11,500 $6,817 77¢ $8.8K +$2,026 11-04 17:12
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +10,000 $6,450 78¢ $7.8K +$1,400 11-04 15:57
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +8,100 $6,218 92¢ $7.4K +$1,194 11-04 16:45
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +20,000 $7,900 32¢ $6.5K -$1,400 09-11 16:09
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No +5,000 $3,750 92¢ $4.6K +$875 11-04 09:00
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +45,043 $7,093 10¢ $4.5K -$2,612 11-09 22:58
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? No +4,819 $4,241 92¢ $4.5K +$217 11-04 17:09
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +4,000 $2,360 72¢ $2.9K +$500 11-04 17:33
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +2,947 $2,344 92¢ $2.7K +$352 11-04 17:49
Kimberly Powell announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026? No +3,092 $1,801 70¢ $2.1K +$348 11-12 14:37
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -2,182 -$2,422 97¢ $-2125 +$297 09-22 10:35
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? No +2,000 $1,840 96¢ $1.9K +$70 11-05 20:48
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +35,040 $1,448 5¢ $1.9K +$462 06-30 06:54
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +1,752 $1,507 94¢ $1.6K +$131 11-05 16:39
Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026? Yes +1,591 $976 97¢ $1.5K +$563 11-08 09:34
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +1,554 $1,056 80¢ $1.3K +$195 11-04 17:46
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No -1,200 -$1,145 100¢ $-1198 -$53 06-08 23:41
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +9,000 $1,219 13¢ $1.2K -$44 11-12 17:37
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,000 $680 98¢ $977 +$297 11-05 17:26
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +1,000 $760 97¢ $973 +$213 11-05 18:19
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +781 $633 90¢ $699 +$66 11-04 20:21
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? Yes +619 $532 95¢ $590 +$59 11-09 21:13
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +500 $380 98¢ $490 +$110 11-05 18:19
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +1,145 $349 32¢ $369 +$20 11-04 23:23
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? No +429 $316 84¢ $360 +$44 11-04 14:02
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +1,629 $1,058 18¢ $285 -$773 11-05 17:48
Israeli airspace closed by November 30, 2026? No +275 $212 90¢ $249 +$37 11-04 12:32
Kimberly Powell announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? No +500 $225 48¢ $237 +$12 11-12 14:09