Chilly-Cobweb — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$30

Unrealized P&L

+$18

Hit rate

78.6%

Resolved

117

Trades

330

lifetime

Volume

$5.13K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$25

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-10

last 10-29 16:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Other

41% 67% +$106

Crypto

33% 59% -$34

Politics

21% 52% -$81

Tech

5% 57% -$10

Sports

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+15	$10	72¢	$11	+$1	10-01 07:23
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-59	-$14	15¢	$-9	+$6	05-17 17:14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-52	-$17	11¢	$-5	+$12	04-28 13:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	10	$660	381	381	+0	No	+$20	05-16 11:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	8	$267	210	210	+0	No	+$37	06-11 11:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$265	160	182	-22	No	+$4	05-28 07:16
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	3	$195	111	111	+0	Yes	+$5	04-28 12:38
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	4	$187	108	108	+0	No	+$7	05-21 20:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	6	$160	140	140	+0	Up	-$40	05-16 12:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	6	$158	91	91	+0	Down	+$8	05-16 12:00
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	2	$144	84	84	+0	No	+$4	07-16 09:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$133	85	85	+0	No	+$33	07-13 06:06
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	4	$121	68	68	+0	No	+$4	04-30 13:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	5	$118	127	94	+33	Yes	-$12	06-14 15:31
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	2	$115	66	66	+0	Yes	-$3	04-28 12:45
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	2	$102	74	74	+0	Yes	+$2	05-17 18:39
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	2	$102	55	55	+0	No	+$2	05-22 10:47
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	2	$101	67	67	+0	open	—	05-10 06:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	4	$97	65	65	+0	Up	-$3	05-16 13:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$94	50	50	+0	Yes	+$4	04-27 20:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	3	$83	48	48	+0	Down	+$13	05-16 12:55
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	3	$82	55	55	+0	No	+$22	06-29 06:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	4	$74	43	43	+0	Down	+$4	05-16 12:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$66	37	37	+0	No	+$6	05-26 17:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	8	$59	42	40	+3	Down	+$3	05-22 18:34
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$59	173	173	+0	open	—	05-17 13:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	2	$57	32	32	+0	Up	+$7	05-16 12:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	2	$54	30	30	+0	Up	+$4	05-16 11:30
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	1	$50	72	0	+72	Yes	-$50	04-28 13:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$50	69	69	+0	open	—	07-16 09:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	7	$50	40	30	+10	Up	$0	05-17 06:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	7	$46	46	46	+0	Up	-$4	05-23 19:29
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	2	$45	31	31	+0	Up	+$5	05-14 12:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 16:18:07	Erste Bank Open: Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti	Lorenzo Musetti	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0xa0a1e2…
10-17 13:57:57	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x3e0d17…
10-17 13:56:54	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	34¢	$5	0x28f9cd…
10-03 15:55:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	SELL	29	9¢	$3	0xe3c542…
10-03 15:54:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	82¢	$12	0x8be217…
10-01 07:23:51	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x7735e2…
10-01 07:23:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x06e052…
09-30 04:25:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 04:25 UTC	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x133a8d…
09-29 06:51:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260922	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xb857c6…
09-28 07:18:29	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x3fe059…
09-28 07:17:38	us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918	No	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0x106f03…
09-25 10:50:26	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x7ba8a5…
09-23 12:29:26	us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x5543d6…
09-23 12:28:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xf42f66…
09-21 11:28:57	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xdf6ce1…
09-17 07:31:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 07:30 UTC	Up	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x75a5f4…
09-17 07:30:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x8c6a59…
09-17 07:27:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 07:25 UTC	Up	SELL	3	49¢	$1	0x2a1e55…
09-17 07:27:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 07:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xfc5bb4…
09-17 07:26:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 07:25 UTC	Down	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xd951f3…
09-17 07:25:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 07:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa413cd…
09-17 07:23:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x734192…
09-17 07:22:16	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xd934a0…
07-16 09:38:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	84	88¢	$74	0xe59b75…
07-16 09:38:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	69	43¢	$30	0x85542d…
07-14 14:11:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 14:10 UTC	Up	SELL	6	60¢	$3	0x9c67d2…
07-14 14:11:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 14:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x1a9e81…
07-13 06:18:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x600c34…
07-13 06:16:53	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	125	2¢	$2	0x4352f8…
07-13 06:16:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	84	83¢	$70	0xf515a6…
07-13 06:06:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	85	97¢	$83	0x022fbc…
07-02 10:47:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xa65044…
07-02 10:46:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x90c365…
07-02 10:43:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 10:40 UTC	Down	SELL	4	60¢	$2	0x2fc0bd…
07-02 10:42:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 10:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd4e688…
07-02 10:35:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xeb3a48…
07-02 10:34:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x72ba90…
06-29 06:07:40	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	55	95¢	$52	0x2a44ce…
06-29 06:07:29	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x5d9563…
06-14 15:31:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xbb86b5…
06-14 15:31:33	spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x611c8b…
06-12 10:01:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xd45297…
06-11 15:46:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x0a314a…
06-11 11:41:31	Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0xb45b44…
06-11 11:40:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	95	92¢	$87	0xc81a9b…
06-04 13:16:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x77a7c6…
06-04 07:47:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x5118f2…
06-02 11:07:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	67	60¢	$40	0x92766f…
06-01 10:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x86de71…
06-01 10:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x6e7447…
06-01 10:22:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0xc0184c…
06-01 10:22:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x05088e…
06-01 10:21:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xd732a1…
06-01 10:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x3df399…
06-01 10:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x7d30ef…
06-01 10:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xd55aa7…
06-01 10:16:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	25	93¢	$23	0xa63479…
05-28 20:04:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x1c0e98…
05-28 20:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0x83ec3c…
05-28 20:03:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb3c541…
05-28 20:03:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x83cb5c…
05-28 10:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xa9b388…
05-28 10:03:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xc710c1…
05-28 10:03:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xd64b25…
05-28 10:02:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xedac99…
05-28 07:22:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xe830cc…
05-28 07:16:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	53	92¢	$48	0xb87ec7…
05-28 07:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xfd400d…
05-28 07:14:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xe46dbc…
05-28 07:07:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x9d25c2…
05-28 07:06:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4103ea…
05-27 09:36:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0xa54f73…
05-27 09:36:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x0dff88…
05-27 09:35:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x88badc…
05-27 09:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x2c9d13…
05-27 09:34:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x666d92…
05-27 09:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0xcd365b…
05-27 09:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xa512fa…
05-26 17:05:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	76¢	$40	0x55c83c…
05-26 17:04:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	37	97¢	$36	0x8b4ed7…
05-23 19:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	16	99¢	$15	0xcf31bf…
05-23 19:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x9e5311…
05-23 19:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6142bd…
05-23 19:28:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x21fa50…
05-23 19:27:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xf94312…
05-23 19:27:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	16	34¢	$5	0xd11138…
05-23 19:27:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x8c77a5…
05-23 19:27:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xf93286…
05-22 18:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	29	98¢	$28	0xb81d39…
05-22 18:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x7d12bc…
05-22 18:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xc80fc5…
05-22 18:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x5f9b40…
05-22 18:32:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x4711f2…
05-22 18:31:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	11	26¢	$3	0x82e2c7…
05-22 18:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x3837bb…
05-22 18:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x4d0d37…
05-22 18:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	23	95¢	$22	0x4e7fc2…
05-22 18:27:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xb05b52…
05-22 18:27:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x35e2a9…
05-22 18:24:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	23	98¢	$23	0xc5fd9b…