Realized P&L (30d)
-$183.1K
Unrealized P&L
+$5.29K
Hit rate
75.3%
Resolved (30d)
80
Trades (30d)
804
5,933 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$2.65M
$9.37M lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.58K
Open exposure
$867.6K
16 positions
First seen
2026-01-16
last 10-31 00:12
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 137 days
Categories
Politics
74% 73% +$206,343
Other
25% 83% -$51,394
Sports
1% 67% -$7,389
Crypto
0% 100% +$21
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 152 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -659,457 -$535,755 82¢ $-544052 -$8,297 10-26 17:25
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +106,652 $101,173 99¢ $106.0K +$4,786 10-28 02:05
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +99,898 $92,430 99¢ $98.9K +$6,469 10-30 23:48
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +58,324 $54,675 94¢ $55.1K +$441 10-28 02:41
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +12,012 $11,541 97¢ $11.7K +$110 10-31 00:12
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +12,031 $11,131 94¢ $11.4K +$238 10-26 05:31
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +8,759 $7,987 99¢ $8.7K +$684 10-28 03:04
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 No +9,497 $7,982 88¢ $8.4K +$423 10-26 17:18
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? Yes +8,103 $7,612 95¢ $7.7K +$50 10-30 23:55
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +5,641 $5,203 90¢ $5.1K -$98 10-30 20:46
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1? Yes +4,645 $4,423 97¢ $4.5K +$104 10-30 23:47
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? Bibi +3,227 $3,098 98¢ $3.2K +$64 10-28 02:41
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? No -1,648 -$1,567 98¢ $-1611 -$44 05-22 01:58
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? Yes +897 $819 92¢ $824 +$5 10-30 20:45
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No +607 $136 82¢ $498 +$362 10-20 21:41
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -110 -$102 98¢ $-107 -$6 05-21 16:56