Realized P&L (30d)
-$172.4K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.76K
Hit rate
75.0%
Resolved (30d)
82
Trades (30d)
769
5,875 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$2.63M
$9.30M lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.58K
Open exposure
$867.6K
19 positions
First seen
2026-01-16
last 10-30 20:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 135 days
Categories
Politics
74% 73% +$205,308
Other
25% 83% -$52,861
Sports
2% 67% -$7,389
Crypto
0% 100% +$21
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 152 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -659,457 -$535,755 82¢ $-544052 -$8,297 10-26 17:25
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +106,652 $101,173 99¢ $105.7K +$4,573 10-28 02:05
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +87,969 $80,752 96¢ $84.9K +$4,139 10-29 13:38
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +58,324 $54,675 94¢ $54.5K -$142 10-28 02:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October? No +28,228 $27,111 100¢ $28.1K +$1,018 10-30 20:45
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +12,031 $11,131 94¢ $11.2K +$118 10-26 05:31
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +8,759 $7,987 99¢ $8.7K +$684 10-28 03:04
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 No +9,497 $7,982 86¢ $8.2K +$233 10-26 17:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October? No +7,436 $6,418 98¢ $7.3K +$869 10-30 20:45
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +5,641 $5,203 86¢ $4.8K -$380 10-30 20:46
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? Bibi +3,227 $3,098 99¢ $3.2K +$96 10-28 02:41
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +2,240 $2,104 94¢ $2.1K +$1 10-30 19:16
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? No -1,648 -$1,567 98¢ $-1611 -$44 05-22 01:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October? No +1,160 $1,105 100¢ $1.2K +$51 10-30 19:14
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? Yes +897 $819 91¢ $820 +$1 10-30 20:45
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No +607 $136 83¢ $504 +$368 10-20 21:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October? No +299 $277 100¢ $298 +$21 10-30 20:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? No +777 $743 26¢ $198 -$545 10-30 19:08
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -110 -$102 98¢ $-107 -$6 05-21 16:56