Realized P&L
+$155.1K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.10K
Hit rate
85.5%
Resolved
416
Trades
5,964
lifetime
Volume
$9.54M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.60K
Open exposure
$878.5K
15 positions
First seen
2026-01-16
last 11-01 01:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 137 days
Categories
Politics
74% 74% +$208,352
Other
24% 83% -$45,914
Sports
1% 67% -$7,389
Crypto
0% 100% +$21
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
72 active days in 12wk • peak 152 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -659,457 -$535,755 82¢ $-544052 -$8,297 10-26 17:25
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +165,483 $156,476 94¢ $156.4K -$94 11-01 01:16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +78,568 $71,195 100¢ $78.2K +$6,980 10-31 22:20
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? Yes +21,977 $21,021 97¢ $21.4K +$373 10-31 23:37
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? Yes +21,542 $19,950 94¢ $20.1K +$192 10-31 23:38
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +12,012 $11,541 99¢ $11.9K +$351 10-31 00:12
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +12,031 $11,131 94¢ $11.4K +$238 10-26 05:31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? Yes +9,401 $8,955 98¢ $9.2K +$272 10-31 23:29
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1? Yes +9,260 $8,978 99¢ $9.2K +$226 10-31 22:55
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +9,497 $7,982 88¢ $8.4K +$423 10-26 17:18
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +5,641 $5,203 93¢ $5.2K +$43 10-30 20:46
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? No -1,648 -$1,567 95¢ $-1563 +$3 05-22 01:58
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? Yes +897 $819 95¢ $849 +$30 10-30 20:45
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No +607 $136 83¢ $504 +$368 10-20 21:41
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -110 -$102 98¢ $-107 -$6 05-21 16:56