Realized P&L
+$162.3K
Unrealized P&L
-$6.52K
Hit rate
85.8%
Resolved
417
Trades
6,009
lifetime
Volume
$9.72M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.62K
Open exposure
$878.3K
18 positions
First seen
2026-01-16
last 11-02 01:30
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 138 days
Categories
Politics
75% 74% +$215,589
Other
24% 83% -$45,914
Sports
1% 67% -$7,389
Crypto
0% 100% +$21
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 152 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -659,457 -$535,755 82¢ $-544052 -$8,297 10-26 17:25
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +165,483 $156,476 94¢ $156.4K -$94 11-01 01:16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? Yes +70,312 $68,486 97¢ $68.0K -$495 11-01 19:36
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? Yes +29,249 $27,168 94¢ $27.6K +$473 11-01 19:39
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? Yes +17,953 $17,376 99¢ $17.7K +$335 11-01 16:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +12,012 $11,541 99¢ $11.9K +$351 10-31 00:12
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +12,031 $11,131 94¢ $11.4K +$238 10-26 05:31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1? Yes +10,258 $9,967 100¢ $10.2K +$275 11-02 01:28
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +9,497 $7,982 86¢ $8.2K +$233 10-26 17:18
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? Yes +9,220 $7,703 81¢ $7.5K -$234 11-01 19:26
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +5,641 $5,203 96¢ $5.4K +$184 10-30 20:46
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? Yes +4,050 $3,650 92¢ $3.7K +$96 11-01 12:06
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +2,327 $1,676 72¢ $1.7K +$12 11-02 01:30
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? No -1,648 -$1,567 97¢ $-1604 -$38 05-22 01:58
Blue wave in 2026? Yes +1,588 $1,445 90¢ $1.4K -$8 11-02 00:45
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? Yes +897 $819 98¢ $877 +$58 10-30 20:45
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No +607 $136 88¢ $531 +$395 10-20 21:41
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -110 -$102 98¢ $-107 -$6 05-21 16:56