Deserted-Cyclone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

-$44

Hit rate

78.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.08K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$506

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 06-08 06:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

65% — —

Politics

32% — —

Crypto

3% 67% $-4

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	+562	$300	50¢	$278	$-22	06-07 19:08
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	No	+238	$200	84¢	$199	$-1	06-01 17:48
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+114	$50	26¢	$29	$-21	06-08 06:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	5	$495	756	194	+562	open	—	06-07 19:08
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	1	$200	238	0	+238	open	—	06-01 17:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$111	62	62	+0	open	—	05-12 18:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$97	109	109	+0	open	—	05-23 19:13
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	2	$50	114	0	+114	open	—	06-08 06:34
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	2	$30	29	29	+0	open	—	06-07 20:55
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	1	$20	0	21	-21	open	—	06-03 17:16
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	2	$19	62	62	+0	open	—	06-01 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	2	$11	7	7	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 20:37
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-24 20:49
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	3	$9	716	0	+716	open	—	05-28 16:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	3	$7	6	4	+2	Down	+$1	05-12 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	3	$6	4	2	+2	Up	+$0	05-12 10:54
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	05-27 04:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	1	$5	21	0	+21	Down	$-5	05-10 20:46
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	2	$2	499	0	+499	open	—	05-28 15:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	1	$2	6	0	+6	Down	$-2	05-12 10:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	1	$2	2	0	+2	Down	+$0	05-12 10:44
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$1	250	0	+250	open	—	05-12 15:34
will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	06-02 07:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 06:34:51	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	43¢	$20	0x61f992…
06-08 06:31:55	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0x52775d…
06-07 20:55:57	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	29	67¢	$20	0x9804b8…
06-07 19:28:49	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xaf5280…
06-07 19:08:19	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x65405d…
06-07 19:08:09	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	194	49¢	$95	0xe3c0b2…
06-07 19:07:57	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	194	52¢	$100	0x5d1d23…
06-03 17:16:46	Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0x458b2d…
06-02 07:18:31	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xef6e5c…
06-01 17:48:00	Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	No	BUY	238	84¢	$200	0x56b53c…
06-01 17:36:20	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x768a36…
06-01 17:35:51	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	184	54¢	$100	0x40fb76…
06-01 17:29:10	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	15¢	$9	0x5dac7e…
05-31 19:05:41	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x9dbf84…
05-28 16:18:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xf53ca0…
05-28 15:55:21	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	251	0¢	$1	0x20640b…
05-27 04:52:19	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	248	0¢	$1	0xdba15c…
05-27 04:49:23	Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x9021f6…
05-26 13:55:38	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	91	3¢	$3	0xf4b971…
05-24 20:49:43	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7caac3…
05-23 21:28:38	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x91bc1b…
05-23 19:13:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	43¢	$47	0x3715fd…
05-12 18:37:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	62	98¢	$61	0x19500c…
05-12 15:34:54	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x0f1ae3…
05-12 10:56:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x3aa75b…
05-12 10:54:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xd4c8b0…
05-12 10:53:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xf1f43b…
05-12 10:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xea73ea…
05-12 10:49:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xbd72e8…
05-12 10:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0xffbc12…
05-12 10:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xec5eb1…
05-12 10:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xb3cc4b…
05-10 20:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x7f3e38…
05-10 20:37:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x1ce175…
05-10 20:36:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x5d74d4…
05-08 14:04:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x53033c…
05-07 15:17:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x82b3c8…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	13	$77.1K	7,460	06-10 01:00
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	13	$57.4K	285	06-09 03:35
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	12	$101.5K	1,527	06-10 00:58
(anonymous) 0x945a…a48c	12	$14.5K	3,988	06-10 00:57
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	12	$5.99K	171	06-09 23:04
Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e	11	$141.0K	1,644	06-10 00:34
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	11	$21.9K	82	06-08 20:58
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	11	$5.26K	479	06-09 20:22