Thankful-Friendship — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

95.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,051

lifetime

Volume

$176.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$168

Open exposure

$28

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-18 17:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

38% 100% +$0

Sports

29% 75% +$34

Politics

14% — —

Tech

13% — —

Crypto

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	No		-39	$-27	72¢	$-28	$-1	05-30 19:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	9	$11.0K	5,586	5,586	+0	open	—	05-27 05:31
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	13	$8.8K	5,019	5,019	+0	open	—	06-12 14:19
will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	67	$8.1K	4,092	4,092	+0	open	—	03-29 08:00
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	20	$7.8K	4,915	4,715	+200	open	—	04-22 13:06
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	26	$7.7K	3,851	3,851	+0	open	—	04-27 16:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	36	$7.3K	3,678	3,678	+0	open	—	05-16 08:06
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	74	$6.8K	5,142	5,072	+70	Cavaliers	+$60	05-14 03:03
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	26	$4.9K	3,221	3,089	+132	open	—	06-12 16:39
nba mia cha 2026 04 14	5	$4.1K	2,572	2,572	+0	open	—	04-15 02:27
will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	3	$4.0K	2,045	1,995	+50	open	—	06-18 17:17
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	4	$3.9K	2,026	2,026	+0	open	—	06-11 17:53
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	26	$3.9K	1,968	1,968	+0	open	—	04-22 12:08
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	35	$3.6K	1,798	1,798	+0	open	—	02-14 06:00
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	25	$3.5K	1,763	1,763	+0	open	—	04-24 16:29
Magic vs. Pistons	14	$3.5K	2,010	2,010	+0	open	—	04-29 23:45
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	11	$3.5K	1,750	1,750	+0	open	—	04-18 19:15
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	17	$3.1K	1,546	1,546	+0	open	—	04-13 09:23
Raptors vs. Cavaliers	9	$3.0K	2,020	2,020	+0	open	—	04-30 00:07
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	40	$2.9K	1,530	1,427	+103	open	—	03-31 10:52
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 113	39	$2.9K	1,463	1,463	+0	open	—	03-18 19:07
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	9	$2.4K	1,209	1,209	+0	open	—	03-18 01:24
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	19	$2.4K	1,199	1,199	+0	open	—	01-10 19:32
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$2.4K	1,194	1,194	+0	open	—	01-08 18:08
nba lac phx 2026 02 01	4	$2.3K	1,149	1,149	+0	open	—	02-02 03:24
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	7	$2.3K	1,134	1,134	+0	open	—	03-26 02:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	8	$2.2K	1,114	1,114	+0	open	—	04-24 01:12
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	10	$2.2K	1,092	1,092	+0	open	—	03-03 01:42
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	2	$2.0K	2,051	0	+2,051	open	—	06-07 09:17
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on january 9	9	$2.0K	999	999	+0	open	—	01-09 06:20
nba bos bkn 2026 01 23	2	$1.8K	929	929	+0	open	—	01-24 03:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 17:17:22	will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x4ebb73…
06-18 02:53:17	will bitcoin reach 92pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb646bb…
06-12 16:39:06	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	526	78¢	$410	0xd6b396…
06-12 16:39:03	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	123	78¢	$96	0xfffbe2…
06-12 16:39:00	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	9	78¢	$7	0xf1ea36…
06-12 16:39:00	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	22	78¢	$17	0x16bb0b…
06-12 16:38:51	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	1,282	78¢	$1,000	0xd9ff6b…
06-12 16:38:37	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	400	78¢	$312	0x90786f…
06-12 16:37:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xc98a64…
06-12 16:36:22	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x48aba1…
06-12 16:36:21	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	6	78¢	$4	0x68abce…
06-12 16:36:03	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x750792…
06-12 16:35:37	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0x64b11b…
06-12 16:35:36	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x6a2743…
06-12 16:35:36	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	201	78¢	$156	0x409b3e…
06-12 16:35:22	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x791cc1…
06-12 16:35:10	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	13	78¢	$10	0x738eb7…
06-12 16:34:06	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xadf024…
06-12 16:33:55	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	77	78¢	$60	0x856c29…
06-12 15:13:46	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0xc1b0a0…
06-12 15:07:19	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x7caf11…
06-12 15:02:16	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x1bea5a…
06-12 14:40:25	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	1,667	78¢	$1,300	0x28ab84…
06-12 14:40:13	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	454	78¢	$354	0x3350f6…
06-12 14:38:28	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x2e17f1…
06-12 14:27:25	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0x3cb03c…
06-12 14:24:24	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0xad6905…
06-12 14:19:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,057	90¢	$949	0x020f42…
06-12 14:18:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,074	90¢	$964	0x19823b…
06-12 14:15:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	111	89¢	$99	0xd6e6f7…
06-12 14:15:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x7064e8…
06-12 14:15:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,010	89¢	$1,789	0x0d4ada…
06-12 14:10:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	185	89¢	$166	0x255058…
06-12 14:10:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	215	89¢	$192	0x5d0410…
06-12 14:01:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x7d06ca…
06-12 14:01:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	25	89¢	$22	0xab9124…
06-12 13:54:43	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x628623…
06-12 13:54:09	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Yes	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0xc92c05…
06-12 13:42:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	2,106	88¢	$1,854	0xe4fd98…
06-12 13:41:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	382	88¢	$336	0xa8d52d…
06-12 09:18:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,488	83¢	$2,055	0xb9bb0f…
06-11 17:53:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Yes	SELL	188	97¢	$182	0x1e2c08…
06-11 17:39:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Yes	SELL	1,838	97¢	$1,778	0xc42353…
06-11 05:14:21	SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	69	100¢	$69	0x6d9761…
06-09 14:28:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Yes	BUY	1,726	97¢	$1,667	0x5b3bd1…
06-09 14:27:21	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Yes	BUY	300	97¢	$290	0x627b6c…
06-07 09:17:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	1,344	99¢	$1,334	0x5ff456…
06-07 09:16:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	707	99¢	$702	0xf4ef34…
06-05 06:22:24	will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	No	SELL	1,995	100¢	$1,991	0x38dcad…
06-04 09:11:13	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xbd6084…
06-04 06:53:34	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x4f395c…
06-03 04:28:05	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xbc6d71…
06-02 17:54:28	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	No	BUY	1,995	99¢	$1,983	0xbb024d…
06-02 14:31:51	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xbd71a8…
06-01 14:26:37	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x399ad1…
06-01 14:26:16	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf8f298…
06-01 09:32:05	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x810a2a…
06-01 06:56:46	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x551a05…
06-01 00:43:07	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	154	99¢	$152	0xfd34ae…
06-01 00:41:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3183ab…
06-01 00:37:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0x5de156…
06-01 00:32:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x198cad…
05-31 03:07:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x108d60…
05-31 02:46:18	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x99eb9a…
05-31 02:44:23	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x557fa2…
05-31 02:42:10	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x5682fd…
05-31 02:42:06	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x8d267b…
05-30 19:11:58	5kt meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	37	69¢	$25	0xda4a0b…
05-30 09:17:33	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	SELL	51	99¢	$51	0xffcd11…
05-30 09:15:06	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	SELL	49	99¢	$48	0x0af9dc…
05-30 01:44:25	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	BUY	124	100¢	$123	0x3e6535…
05-30 01:42:02	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xbcd9b6…
05-29 03:27:25	5kt meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	2	69¢	$2	0x4c9399…
05-28 21:46:17	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xe801f5…
05-28 14:13:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,014	92¢	$933	0x418436…
05-27 05:31:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	1,875	100¢	$1,871	0xd5da4b…
05-23 07:35:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd57404…
05-21 16:00:53	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xfd3ab3…
05-21 02:43:40	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x7e2b8d…
05-20 11:19:51	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x681e68…
05-20 10:15:06	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x086fd0…
05-17 08:53:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	1,875	99¢	$1,860	0x72f197…
05-16 16:09:10	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	1,614	99¢	$1,597	0x6d8547…
05-16 15:44:39	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0x2c3d2a…
05-16 15:22:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5be332…
05-16 15:19:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	251	99¢	$248	0x4789c6…
05-16 09:35:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	1,880	99¢	$1,859	0x50ce3f…
05-16 08:06:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	463	100¢	$461	0xdd1b5d…
05-16 08:01:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x1bf741…
05-16 07:50:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x4e5825…
05-16 07:42:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x601ebc…
05-16 07:39:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0x11cd1c…
05-16 05:36:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	138	100¢	$137	0xb566d5…
05-16 05:35:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0x839ec9…
05-16 05:33:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x463d68…
05-16 05:26:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xc48f3f…
05-16 05:09:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd1551b…
05-16 04:55:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe99368…
05-16 04:55:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xe698ef…
05-16 04:47:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x465c16…