Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?
open
Total volume
$633,758
$45 in 24h
Trades
1,091
Unique wallets
278
Liquidity
$9,098
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-15 22:07
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+3.4¢
(top1%: 4% YES on $1.3K
vs crowd: 1% YES on $325.8K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 16 | $56 | $4.1K | $4.0K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 24 | $62 | $4.0K | $3.9K |
| 🐟 Fish | 65 | $3.0K | $309.0K | $305.9K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 173 | $37 | $5.7K | $5.7K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 7 | $56 | $1.2K | $1.2K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 10 | $51 | $891 | $839 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 11 | $5 | $479 | $474 |
| Median | 45 | $1 | $4.3K | $4.3K |
| Below median | 35 | $7 | $1.2K | $1.2K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $8 | $1.0K | $1.0K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $8 | $93 | $85 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $14 | $900 | $887 |
| unranked | 156 | $3.0K | $312.5K | $309.5K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slippery-Carbohydrate 0x011f…6771 | Yes | +6,819 | $68 | $3,526 | 55 | 05-29 11:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x7d40…5fe4 | No | +6,510 | $6,445 | $45,103 | 8 | 05-29 11:58 |
| Blank-Opinion 0x5d5c…cf59 | No | +5,691 | $5,675 | $5,675 | 9 | 06-15 10:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | +3,137 | $-5 | $47 | 12 | 06-15 22:07 |
| Outgoing-Bite 0x2ec0…976b | No | +2,251 | $2,229 | $2,229 | 19 | 06-06 22:01 |
| Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | +1,485 | $22 | $22 | 10 | 05-31 06:59 |
| Admired-Omission 0x495e…9a96 | Yes | +1,478 | $14 | $14 | 2 | 06-05 18:46 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +800 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-15 08:32 |
| Massive-Seminar 0xd3f3…abab | Yes | +798 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 05-30 20:41 |
| Ultimate-Tomtom 0x3d68…db93 | Yes | +658 | $4 | $4 | 5 | 06-14 18:38 |
| Cheery-Preparation 0xcaab…24dd | Yes | +492 | $3 | $3 | 3 | 05-29 13:52 |
| Punctual-Freak 0x1e66…41e7 | Yes | +313 | $3 | $6 | 29 | 06-10 07:11 |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk 0x9507…7b04 | No | +302 | $300 | $300 | 1 | 06-11 16:46 |
| Paltry-Sentiment 0x091e…84bc | No | +302 | $300 | $300 | 3 | 06-10 09:29 |
| Long-Term-Siege 0xc5d5…6caa | Yes | +287 | $2 | $2 | 16 | 05-29 23:42 |
| Frivolous-Reset 0x1f9f…825b | Yes | +286 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-05 20:19 |
| Adored-Curio 0x4a46…118c | Yes | +250 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-15 06:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x1500…d35a | No | +245 | $242 | $242 | 1 | 05-30 10:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x94e6…2d1f | Yes | +235 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-07 14:23 |
| Complete-Monocle 0xe85c…ed6b | Yes | +225 | $2 | $2 | 9 | 05-30 09:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf9f…c444 | Yes | +200 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-15 08:32 |
| Sardonic-Characterization 0xad33…9962 | No | +200 | $198 | $198 | 1 | 05-29 11:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x722e…51af | No | +200 | $199 | $199 | 1 | 05-28 23:17 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +143 | $1 | $8 | 16 | 06-14 18:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x46db…c48d | No | +140 | $138 | $138 | 1 | 05-30 10:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x4846…ba76 | Yes | +135 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 05-31 10:16 |
| Appropriate-Connotation 0xfaaa…95c1 | No | +134 | $132 | $132 | 1 | 05-30 10:12 |
| Basic-Hamster 0x5824…69a9 | No | +133 | $131 | $131 | 1 | 05-30 10:01 |
| Instructive-Pants 0xf9ac…a816 | No | +121 | $120 | $120 | 1 | 06-10 01:45 |
| Scientific-Impala 0x07d1…8ffa | Yes | +120 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 05-30 13:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x8f09…170f | Yes | +119 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-30 18:35 |
| (anonymous) 0xe6f0…ed38 | No | +104 | $103 | $103 | 1 | 05-30 11:09 |
| Nifty-Safeguard 0xb2a6…6865 | Yes | +100 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 05-31 11:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x8a63…10b3 | No | +100 | $99 | $99 | 1 | 05-30 10:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf09…2252 | No | +94 | $92 | $92 | 1 | 05-31 06:00 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +94 | $93 | $93 | 15 | 06-05 19:19 |
| Curly-Violin 0x8b06…86e6 | No | +82 | $81 | $1,039 | 22 | 05-31 21:49 |
| Handsome-Fibroblast 0xf82f…5ac5 | Yes | +80 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 06-15 06:52 |
| Late-Specification 0x3930…e8cf | Yes | +69 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-30 13:03 |
| Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | +68 | $67 | $857 | 13 | 05-31 07:00 |
| Early-Trim 0x682d…097d | No | +63 | $63 | $63 | 1 | 06-15 09:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xeb4d…5711 | No | +58 | $58 | $58 | 2 | 06-09 06:23 |
| True-Grand 0xcade…1ff6 | Yes | +58 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-30 21:01 |
| Embellished-Desire 0xdf4b…5c8d | No | +57 | $56 | $56 | 1 | 05-30 16:12 |
| Adored-Begonia 0xc176…1cab | No | +57 | $57 | $57 | 1 | 06-15 07:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x0ebc…0b4e | No | +55 | $55 | $55 | 2 | 06-09 06:23 |
| Buoyant-Friendship 0x567e…e2d2 | No | +55 | $54 | $341 | 5 | 05-31 21:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x28b3…622b | No | +55 | $54 | $54 | 2 | 06-09 06:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x807f…cb90 | No | +55 | $54 | $54 | 2 | 06-09 06:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3b5…d3a5 | No | +54 | $54 | $54 | 2 | 06-09 06:23 |
| Zealous-Crawdad 0xe6ad…c73b | No | +54 | $53 | $53 | 1 | 05-31 04:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xf2da…729f | No | +53 | $53 | $53 | 2 | 06-09 06:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xc25c…c4db | No | +53 | $53 | $53 | 2 | 06-05 18:46 |
| Jolly-Vision 0xdf01…c782 | Yes | +41 | $0 | $3 | 8 | 06-04 06:53 |
| Stable-Patch 0x3a30…99ec | Yes | +29 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-15 07:28 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 22:07:51 | (anonymous) 0xc70e…45a2 | No | BUY | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0xbd927d… |
| 06-15 22:07:51 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbd927d… |
| 06-15 13:53:49 | (anonymous) 0xa3c2…df3d | Yes | SELL | 30 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x15f06c… |
| 06-15 13:53:49 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x15f06c… |
| 06-15 12:45:48 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xb120c4… |
| 06-15 12:45:48 | Talkative-Originality 0x4090…1042 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xb120c4… |
| 06-15 10:21:57 | Everlasting-Adobe 0x6ee3…6d16 | No | SELL | 8 | 100¢ | $8 | 0x0dfd44… |
| 06-15 10:21:57 | Blank-Opinion 0x5d5c…cf59 | No | BUY | 8 | 100¢ | $8 | 0x0dfd44… |
| 06-15 09:25:15 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | BUY | 63 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x6749bd… |
| 06-15 09:25:15 | Early-Trim 0x682d…097d | No | BUY | 63 | 100¢ | $63 | 0x6749bd… |
| 06-15 08:32:03 | Blank-Opinion 0x5d5c…cf59 | No | BUY | 4,000 | 100¢ | $3,992 | 0x9a369a… |
| 06-15 08:32:03 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 800 | 0¢ | $2 | 0x9a369a… |
| 06-15 08:32:03 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | BUY | 3,000 | 0¢ | $6 | 0x9a369a… |
| 06-15 08:32:03 | (anonymous) 0xaf9f…c444 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x9a369a… |
| 06-15 07:28:30 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | SELL | 22 | 100¢ | $22 | 0x2fb475… |
| 06-15 07:28:30 | (anonymous) 0x1dd9…21cc | No | SELL | 6 | 100¢ | $6 | 0x2fb475… |
| 06-15 07:28:30 | Adored-Begonia 0xc176…1cab | No | BUY | 57 | 100¢ | $57 | 0x2fb475… |
| 06-15 07:28:30 | Stable-Patch 0x3a30…99ec | Yes | BUY | 29 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2fb475… |
| 06-15 07:07:24 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | BUY | 36 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x1b0f14… |
| 06-15 07:07:24 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x1b0f14… |
| 06-15 07:07:24 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 20 | 100¢ | $20 | 0x1b0f14… |
| 06-15 07:07:24 | Avaricious-Person 0xafec…fa08 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x1b0f14… |
| 06-15 06:52:54 | Handsome-Fibroblast 0xf82f…5ac5 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbd6fb4… |
| 06-15 06:52:54 | Avaricious-Person 0xafec…fa08 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbd6fb4… |
| 06-15 06:52:54 | Blank-Opinion 0x5d5c…cf59 | No | BUY | 61 | 100¢ | $61 | 0xbd6fb4… |
| 06-15 06:42:25 | Blank-Opinion 0x5d5c…cf59 | No | BUY | 250 | 100¢ | $249 | 0x48f117… |
| 06-15 06:42:25 | Adored-Curio 0x4a46…118c | Yes | BUY | 250 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x48f117… |
| 06-15 03:59:09 | (anonymous) 0x1dd9…21cc | No | SELL | 7 | 100¢ | $7 | 0x5cc7b9… |
| 06-15 03:59:09 | Silent-Psychiatrist 0x60e1…503c | No | BUY | 27 | 100¢ | $27 | 0x5cc7b9… |
| 06-15 03:59:09 | Pastel-Cafe 0x3ec2…dba9 | No | SELL | 20 | 100¢ | $20 | 0x5cc7b9… |
| 06-14 19:02:48 | Whimsical-Cope 0x7e06…18bc | No | SELL | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0xa25a67… |
| 06-14 19:02:48 | Blank-Opinion 0x5d5c…cf59 | No | BUY | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0xa25a67… |
| 06-14 19:02:31 | Whimsical-Cope 0x7e06…18bc | No | SELL | 77 | 100¢ | $77 | 0x9d2779… |
| 06-14 19:02:31 | Cheery-Preparation 0xcaab…24dd | No | SELL | 263 | 100¢ | $262 | 0x9d2779… |
| 06-14 19:02:31 | Blank-Opinion 0x5d5c…cf59 | No | BUY | 340 | 100¢ | $339 | 0x9d2779… |
| 06-14 18:38:39 | Blank-Opinion 0x5d5c…cf59 | No | BUY | 235 | 100¢ | $234 | 0x03ca37… |
| 06-14 18:38:39 | Cheery-Preparation 0xcaab…24dd | No | SELL | 235 | 100¢ | $234 | 0x03ca37… |
| 06-14 18:38:15 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x775b1c… |
| 06-14 18:38:15 | (anonymous) 0xea8b…87a4 | No | SELL | 61 | 100¢ | $60 | 0x775b1c… |
| 06-14 18:38:15 | Blank-Opinion 0x5d5c…cf59 | No | BUY | 633 | 100¢ | $630 | 0x775b1c… |
| 06-14 18:38:15 | Cheery-Preparation 0xcaab…24dd | No | SELL | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x775b1c… |
| 06-14 18:38:15 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x775b1c… |
| 06-14 18:38:15 | Ultimate-Tomtom 0x3d68…db93 | Yes | BUY | 350 | 0¢ | $2 | 0x775b1c… |
| 06-14 18:38:15 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 100 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x775b1c… |
| 06-14 18:37:39 | Blank-Opinion 0x5d5c…cf59 | No | BUY | 161 | 99¢ | $160 | 0x30bf40… |
| 06-14 18:37:39 | Ultimate-Tomtom 0x3d68…db93 | Yes | BUY | 143 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x30bf40… |
| 06-14 18:37:39 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | SELL | 18 | 99¢ | $18 | 0x30bf40… |
| 06-14 10:58:43 | Important-Control 0x5020…c0db | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x786c89… |
| 06-14 10:58:43 | Ultimate-Tomtom 0x3d68…db93 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x786c89… |
| 06-13 19:39:07 | (anonymous) 0x1465…f9f4 | No | BUY | 43 | 99¢ | $43 | 0xa31e28… |
| 06-13 19:39:07 | Ultimate-Tomtom 0x3d68…db93 | Yes | BUY | 63 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xa31e28… |
| 06-13 19:39:07 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0xa31e28… |
| 06-13 16:40:34 | (anonymous) 0xea8b…87a4 | No | SELL | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0xe17f48… |
| 06-13 16:40:34 | Basic-Walker 0x37b3…062c | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0xe17f48… |
| 06-13 01:37:57 | (anonymous) 0xea8b…87a4 | No | SELL | 4 | 99¢ | $4 | 0x107208… |
| 06-13 01:37:57 | (anonymous) 0x52f5…f317 | No | BUY | 4 | 99¢ | $4 | 0x107208… |
| 06-12 15:05:54 | Good-Turn 0xd9bd…75f6 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xc75c73… |
| 06-12 15:05:54 | (anonymous) 0xea8b…87a4 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xc75c73… |
| 06-12 12:58:54 | (anonymous) 0xea8b…87a4 | No | SELL | 39 | 99¢ | $39 | 0x614909… |
| 06-12 12:58:54 | (anonymous) 0x610e…b852 | Yes | SELL | 39 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x614909… |
| 06-12 08:22:21 | (anonymous) 0xd844…b2bc | No | BUY | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x628e53… |
| 06-12 08:22:21 | (anonymous) 0xea8b…87a4 | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x628e53… |
| 06-11 21:09:36 | (anonymous) 0xc60f…8496 | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0xcf962c… |
| 06-11 21:09:36 | (anonymous) 0xea8b…87a4 | No | SELL | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0xcf962c… |
| 06-11 20:49:54 | Virtuous-Prizefight 0xb48c…2739 | No | BUY | 4 | 99¢ | $3 | 0x7de044… |
| 06-11 20:49:54 | (anonymous) 0xea8b…87a4 | No | SELL | 4 | 99¢ | $3 | 0x7de044… |
| 06-11 16:46:37 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 11 | 99¢ | $11 | 0x869394… |
| 06-11 16:46:37 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | SELL | 52 | 99¢ | $52 | 0x869394… |
| 06-11 16:46:37 | Compassionate-Kneejerk 0x9507…7b04 | No | BUY | 302 | 99¢ | $300 | 0x869394… |
| 06-11 16:46:37 | (anonymous) 0x610e…b852 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x869394… |
| 06-11 15:59:49 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc3fced… |
| 06-11 15:59:49 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 211 | 99¢ | $208 | 0xc3fced… |
| 06-11 15:59:49 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0xc3fced… |
| 06-11 15:59:49 | Impossible-Epauliere 0x2b58…7f1c | No | SELL | 271 | 99¢ | $268 | 0xc3fced… |
| 06-11 15:59:49 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 15 | 99¢ | $15 | 0xc3fced… |
| 06-11 15:59:49 | (anonymous) 0x1dd9…21cc | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xc3fced… |
| 06-11 12:45:54 | (anonymous) 0xea8b…87a4 | No | SELL | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0x674732… |
| 06-11 12:45:54 | Moral-Ikebana 0xd834…c839 | No | BUY | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0x674732… |
| 06-11 12:43:27 | Shocked-Cow 0x6fc0…22e2 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x50ca76… |
| 06-11 12:43:27 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x50ca76… |
| 06-11 07:41:03 | Liquid-Ruling 0x3d29…ddd5 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xa15aa6… |
| 06-11 07:41:03 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xa15aa6… |
| 06-10 19:38:18 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xc4ef19… |
| 06-10 19:38:18 | High-Recall 0x2ee3…2e6a | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xc4ef19… |
| 06-10 12:47:37 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x3479d7… |
| 06-10 12:47:37 | (anonymous) 0xcf19…1160 | No | SELL | 236 | 99¢ | $235 | 0x3479d7… |
| 06-10 12:47:37 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 126 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x3479d7… |
| 06-10 12:47:37 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 90 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x3479d7… |
| 06-10 09:29:54 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 21 | 100¢ | $21 | 0x4e7993… |
| 06-10 09:29:54 | Handsome-Fibroblast 0xf82f…5ac5 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4e7993… |
| 06-10 09:29:54 | Whimsical-Cope 0x7e06…18bc | No | SELL | 49 | 100¢ | $49 | 0x4e7993… |
| 06-10 09:29:54 | Paltry-Sentiment 0x091e…84bc | No | BUY | 100 | 100¢ | $100 | 0x4e7993… |
| 06-10 07:11:39 | Whimsical-Cope 0x7e06…18bc | No | SELL | 151 | 100¢ | $151 | 0xe6a73a… |
| 06-10 07:11:39 | Punctual-Freak 0x1e66…41e7 | Yes | SELL | 151 | 0¢ | $1 | 0xe6a73a… |
| 06-10 02:39:46 | (anonymous) 0x9676…06d3 | No | BUY | 20 | 100¢ | $19 | 0x3d8f31… |
| 06-10 02:39:46 | Whimsical-Cope 0x7e06…18bc | No | SELL | 20 | 100¢ | $19 | 0x3d8f31… |
| 06-10 01:45:45 | Affectionate-Woman 0x551a…86b9 | No | SELL | 106 | 100¢ | $105 | 0x31f77f… |
| 06-10 01:45:45 | Instructive-Pants 0xf9ac…a816 | No | BUY | 121 | 99¢ | $120 | 0x31f77f… |
| 06-10 01:45:45 | (anonymous) 0x1dd9…21cc | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x31f77f… |
| 06-10 01:45:45 | Whispered-Cooking 0x8521…d9a7 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x31f77f… |