Buoyant-Friendship — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.78K

Unrealized P&L

+$44

Hit rate

95.4%

Resolved

307

Trades

1,326

lifetime

Volume

$284.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$215

Open exposure

$5.92K

14 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 10-24 01:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

60% 98% +$4,272

Crypto

31% 94% -$1,276

Politics

6% 73% -$94

Tech

2% 75% -$72

Sports

2% 67% -$3

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$47

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+1,562	$1,428	92¢	$1.4K	+$17	09-15 19:41
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026?	No	-995	-$965	99¢	$-987	-$21	06-10 02:43
Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027?	No	-853	-$751	93¢	$-795	-$45	07-09 05:48
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	No	+405	$391	96¢	$390	$0	10-04 17:50
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	+373	$346	94¢	$350	+$4	09-07 17:18
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?	No	+389	$350	88¢	$340	-$10	06-11 12:05
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?	No	-402	-$340	74¢	$-296	+$45	07-03 06:58
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	+300	$276	98¢	$292	+$16	08-27 13:04
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+290	$249	94¢	$271	+$22	09-05 20:17
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?	No	+198	$184	95¢	$188	+$4	09-04 15:04
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027?	No	-168	-$158	95¢	$-160	-$2	07-03 22:15
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	No	+170	$153	93¢	$159	+$6	09-02 18:14
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?	No	+152	$144	97¢	$147	+$3	09-15 19:26
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$90	96¢	$96	+$7	08-27 12:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	15	$20.4K	10,374	10,374	+0	No	+$346	06-26 07:46
will solana reach 160 in march 2026	3	$12.3K	6,158	6,158	+0	No	+$16	03-30 16:22
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	22	$11.4K	11,562	0	+11,562	No	+$159	05-26 16:15
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	31	$8.5K	5,839	5,839	+0	No	-$1,612	06-02 04:20
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	3	$7.8K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$166	06-26 14:15
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	13	$6.8K	3,498	3,498	+0	No	+$175	06-30 11:13
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	8	$6.4K	6,529	0	+6,529	No	+$127	03-31 08:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	8	$5.9K	2,981	2,981	+0	No	+$49	05-26 11:01
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	6	$5.5K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$200	05-26 16:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	9	$5.4K	5,455	0	+5,455	No	+$73	04-24 11:36
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?	7	$5.3K	2,655	2,655	+0	No	+$26	08-31 15:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	9	$5.2K	5,339	0	+5,339	No	+$98	04-08 04:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	6	$5.2K	2,689	2,689	-0	No	+$32	05-06 09:53
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?	11	$5.0K	3,603	1,500	+2,103	No	+$65	09-30 19:59
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	14	$4.9K	3,000	2,200	+800	Yes	+$65	02-28 21:12
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	22	$4.7K	3,719	1,088	+2,631	No	+$18	06-30 13:45
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	4	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$31	09-21 09:41
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	9	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$25	06-30 13:42
will solana reach 170 in january 2026	2	$3.6K	3,649	0	+3,649	No	+$17	01-27 04:33
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027?	4	$3.4K	1,112	3,337	-2,225	Yes	+$1,735	06-13 18:52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	4	$3.4K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	05-24 07:23
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	35	$3.4K	3,477	0	+3,477	No	+$126	04-25 12:37
Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$3.3K	1,720	1,720	+0	No	+$18	06-01 06:25
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?	4	$3.1K	1,800	1,400	+400	No	+$68	06-17 09:28
will solana reach 160 in february 2026	6	$3.0K	1,523	1,523	+0	No	+$24	02-28 07:44
Will Hibachi launch a token by March 31, 2026?	6	$2.7K	2,738	0	+2,738	No	+$25	03-27 10:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	4	$2.7K	1,341	1,341	+0	No	+$9	05-29 14:20
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?	1	$2.6K	2,600	0	+2,600	Yes	+$18	09-01 16:56
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch?	11	$2.5K	1,499	1,042	+457	No	+$9	06-23 04:08
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	2	$2.1K	1,037	1,036	+1	No	+$8	04-24 19:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 01:46:12	Will Axis launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xad24ec…
10-22 12:57:50	Will Axis launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0xe61d71…
10-22 08:24:05	Will Axis launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0x88c50a…
10-10 12:12:49	Multipli.fi FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	95	96¢	$91	0x0a67da…
10-09 21:27:05	LAPTOP listed on Binance within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	916	100¢	$914	0xc01550…
10-09 20:33:19	LAPTOP listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	269	100¢	$268	0xeacf00…
10-09 20:16:19	Linera FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	149	95¢	$141	0x6647f6…
10-09 20:15:53	Linera FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	129	92¢	$118	0x47d5ba…
10-09 16:55:58	Ethos FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	950	97¢	$923	0x86f2da…
10-09 15:12:42	Ethos FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x5f0c3b…
10-09 07:58:51	Ethos FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	92	97¢	$90	0x1b416f…
10-09 04:35:22	LAPTOP listed on Binance within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0xdebe4f…
10-08 15:41:06	Ethos FDV above $35M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0xb5923c…
10-08 15:38:59	Ethos FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x4fcade…
10-08 14:38:44	Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x8b1a34…
10-07 18:11:06	Will Ethos launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	173	99¢	$172	0xf387b5…
10-07 15:03:53	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x2c158a…
10-07 05:46:17	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x2e4da3…
10-07 00:29:37	Ethos FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x7b5ba6…
10-06 21:25:18	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x68f7f0…
10-06 21:20:24	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	201	77¢	$154	0x2ff1a9…
10-06 20:46:27	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $75M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,000	94¢	$944	0x0f891a…
10-06 20:43:50	Ethos FDV above $75M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	61¢	$61	0x3fa001…
10-06 15:43:18	Ethos FDV above $75M one day after launch?	No	SELL	89	70¢	$62	0x185fbb…
10-06 13:42:15	Ethos FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	159	98¢	$156	0x3a04ce…
10-04 17:50:53	Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x45afc9…
10-04 16:17:52	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x30b1a3…
10-04 15:35:16	Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	No	SELL	68	97¢	$66	0xa26ca0…
10-04 11:09:52	Ethos FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	80	98¢	$78	0x028f52…
10-03 23:52:58	Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026?	No	SELL	93	98¢	$91	0xca42bf…
10-02 14:36:20	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	No	BUY	749	99¢	$745	0xf2c68a…
10-02 14:18:38	Umia listed on Upbit within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	170	99¢	$169	0x18ab29…
10-01 18:45:45	Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	No	SELL	122	98¢	$119	0x7cad4c…
10-01 05:13:18	Concrete FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	201	100¢	$201	0xba9ee4…
09-30 20:08:23	Concrete FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x8191f1…
09-30 20:02:35	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $122.5B by September 30?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0x9fbebe…
09-30 20:01:41	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by September 30?	No	BUY	62	91¢	$57	0xbb2b62…
09-30 20:00:38	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16.5B by September 30?	No	BUY	49	98¢	$48	0x7186e3…
09-30 19:59:14	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$499	0xfea365…
09-30 19:55:08	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $162.5B by September 30?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x37ca22…
09-30 19:54:06	Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by September 30?	No	BUY	95	97¢	$92	0x1d53d0…
09-30 19:52:50	Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $160B by September 30?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xc82803…
09-30 19:51:00	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $210B by September 30?	No	BUY	143	97¢	$139	0x1d680a…
09-30 19:43:08	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.5B by September 30?	No	BUY	72	98¢	$70	0x202865…
09-30 19:41:48	Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by September 30?	No	BUY	139	99¢	$137	0x2a7ad2…
09-30 19:40:32	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	541	100¢	$541	0x2dfd03…
09-29 18:42:59	Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x31e3b1…
09-29 13:34:30	over 10m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	BUY	216	95¢	$205	0xe8c895…
09-29 13:28:26	Will Fhenix launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,218	98¢	$1,199	0x965a34…
09-29 13:11:12	Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7361c0…
09-29 13:11:02	Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x488a33…
09-29 06:43:38	Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$996	0xa52e2e…
09-29 06:42:45	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$998	0xa106ac…
09-29 06:31:42	Will Axis launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	225	81¢	$182	0x017f3f…
09-29 06:28:33	Will Axis launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	225	62¢	$139	0x86ddcc…
09-29 06:26:51	Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	140	99¢	$138	0xc2a5df…
09-28 21:15:36	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 65 by September 30?	No	BUY	45	69¢	$31	0xb8692e…
09-28 21:15:29	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 60 by September 30?	No	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0x18bf7a…
09-28 21:14:32	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 50 by September 30?	No	BUY	77	79¢	$61	0x4d1d9b…
09-28 21:14:06	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 45 by September 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x68ed26…
09-28 21:13:57	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by September 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xe7f57f…
09-28 21:06:54	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by September 30?	No	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0x8493db…
09-28 21:06:48	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 55 by September 30?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xeb50de…
09-28 21:06:36	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by September 30?	No	BUY	21	79¢	$17	0x5618cf…
09-28 21:05:35	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by September 30?	No	BUY	99	99¢	$98	0x0afcaf…
09-26 10:22:39	Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	BUY	41	67¢	$27	0xb6421e…
09-25 07:33:12	Linera FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0x925167…
09-25 07:31:36	Ethos FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xdbec05…
09-24 13:52:41	Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,229	98¢	$1,204	0x8e8f30…
09-24 13:49:59	Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,003	100¢	$1,002	0x6a1387…
09-24 07:52:21	Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026?	Yes	BUY	260	99¢	$258	0x12f5a5…
09-24 07:43:50	Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x1d96cb…
09-24 07:32:09	Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026?	Yes	BUY	403	96¢	$389	0x55d19d…
09-24 05:12:44	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xb22321…
09-23 18:52:56	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $525B by September 30?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x285da6…
09-23 14:28:05	Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by September 30?	No	BUY	69	98¢	$68	0x269605…
09-22 20:15:21	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,932	100¢	$1,922	0x26be81…
09-22 15:57:37	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x5cf3fd…
09-21 20:48:19	Ethos FDV above $75M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x38cc01…
09-21 20:48:07	Ethos FDV above $75M one day after launch?	No	SELL	11	72¢	$8	0x98d740…
09-21 20:48:07	Ethos FDV above $75M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x5f5abc…
09-21 09:41:05	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,995	100¢	$1,991	0x3346cc…
09-21 07:27:23	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xad0e5b…
09-20 05:38:16	Ethos FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xca65aa…
09-19 23:41:15	Ethos FDV above $75M one day after launch?	No	BUY	69	64¢	$44	0x520259…
09-19 11:46:21	Ethos FDV above $75M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0xdb405a…
09-19 11:34:33	Ethos FDV above $75M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xdcec20…
09-19 11:31:44	Will Hyperliquid introduce KYC by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	75	98¢	$74	0x814282…
09-18 21:27:31	Will the AAVE TVL go below $10B in 2026?	No	BUY	405	94¢	$380	0x49e875…
09-18 14:42:54	Ethos FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0xf778d3…
09-17 19:36:28	Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch	No	BUY	1,200	98¢	$1,182	0x4503e8…
09-17 19:24:28	Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch	No	BUY	108	97¢	$104	0x65ab21…
09-17 17:51:48	Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by September 30?	No	BUY	88	92¢	$81	0xcd460e…
09-17 17:01:43	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $10.25B by September 30?	Yes	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0xf33d2f…
09-17 16:16:45	Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch	No	BUY	180	92¢	$166	0xdfa9f1…
09-17 14:08:49	Will Lionel Messi play for Argentina again in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	89¢	$12	0x6af834…
09-17 07:48:52	Ethos FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	231	33¢	$76	0x7576f4…
09-17 07:48:04	Ethos FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	231	31¢	$71	0xe45a98…
09-17 07:14:55	Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0xbcdd84…
09-17 06:43:42	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by September 30?	No	BUY	548	93¢	$510	0x4ed6f5…