Raw-Shawl-Macrofauna — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

763

lifetime

Volume

$1.67K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-14

last 07-22 09:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

81% — —

Other

16% 100% +$12

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 328 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	18	$150	210	215	-4	open	—	06-22 11:35
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	9	$141	116	116	+0	open	—	07-22 09:22
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	77	$118	461	461	+0	open	—	04-12 06:52
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	7	$68	58	17	+41	open	—	06-17 21:16
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	5	$68	69	69	+0	open	—	06-14 21:25
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$65	67	67	+0	open	—	04-08 09:36
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	4	$55	30	30	+0	open	—	07-22 09:20
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	35	$51	31	31	+0	open	—	07-22 09:23
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	20	$50	55	55	+0	open	—	04-16 05:06
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	4	$44	24	24	+0	open	—	07-22 09:19
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	56	$42	49	46	+4	open	—	04-21 19:50
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	5	$39	55	55	+0	open	—	04-08 22:23
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	20	$39	36	36	+0	Yes	+$12	04-17 11:43
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	1	$34	0	37	-37	open	—	07-22 09:20
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	4	$32	35	10	+25	open	—	06-16 18:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	3	$29	65	65	+0	open	—	04-06 04:08
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$29	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	04-24 14:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$28	27	27	+0	open	—	07-22 09:19
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	4	$28	16	16	+0	open	—	06-11 02:29
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	3	$24	16	16	+0	open	—	07-17 05:51
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	8	$23	22	22	+0	open	—	04-24 22:39
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	13	$21	15	15	+0	open	—	04-09 00:37
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	4	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	07-06 02:37
will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	5	$20	14	14	+0	open	—	07-22 09:21
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	2	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	07-22 09:23
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	2	$20	20	20	+0	open	—	07-22 09:21
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	2	$20	20	20	+0	open	—	07-22 09:21
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	2	$20	25	0	+25	open	—	06-18 01:52
congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	2	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	06-10 18:30
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	3	$18	9	9	+0	open	—	07-22 09:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 09:25:39	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xe33d6e…
07-22 09:25:24	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0xbf3d86…
07-22 09:25:01	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x6e8463…
07-22 09:24:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	35	7¢	$2	0x47d676…
07-22 09:24:36	Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x00442b…
07-22 09:24:21	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x83a1c7…
07-22 09:23:49	Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	SELL	12	87¢	$10	0x4e96fa…
07-22 09:23:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x5868f2…
07-22 09:22:57	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	18	48¢	$9	0xb5354d…
07-22 09:22:15	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xcc9dd8…
07-22 09:22:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x169e28…
07-22 09:21:45	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0xc7a129…
07-22 09:21:15	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x776d6e…
07-22 09:21:01	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x144dbb…
07-22 09:20:22	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	37	93¢	$34	0x1f4085…
07-22 09:20:01	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xd2f5e6…
07-22 09:19:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	24	89¢	$22	0xcb7f14…
07-22 09:19:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	27	53¢	$14	0x0a39a7…
07-21 02:36:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	35	12¢	$4	0x7eda6b…
07-20 15:59:30	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0x4c40f6…
07-20 15:59:21	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0x2abd0a…
07-20 08:15:49	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0xbd58c2…
07-17 17:16:19	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	18	38¢	$7	0x718298…
07-17 15:33:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x4e4bdb…
07-17 06:16:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x80d189…
07-17 06:03:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x05128c…
07-17 05:51:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	13	88¢	$11	0x9da385…
07-17 05:50:45	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0xac6624…
07-13 19:17:16	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x36aca8…
07-13 19:16:53	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x800888…
07-13 19:10:41	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xf2589c…
07-13 17:36:17	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd732d5…
07-13 15:54:26	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x99e9a6…
07-07 13:30:49	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x8e5607…
07-07 09:11:59	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x9f1e37…
07-07 01:46:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x7dd22d…
07-06 19:03:38	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0xf0490e…
07-06 13:16:08	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x4cb971…
07-06 10:05:38	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0xa98ce3…
07-06 09:34:58	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x4da981…
07-06 09:18:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xebb892…
07-06 09:04:31	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x4a9593…
07-06 02:37:38	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	96¢	$8	0xee17c5…
07-06 00:16:14	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x1cfeb2…
07-05 18:56:04	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0xe1f943…
07-05 16:27:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x54ad97…
07-05 15:26:25	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0xb362f6…
07-05 14:25:43	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x4ca199…
07-05 13:47:14	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x4afa36…
07-05 11:28:56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xc10aa4…
07-05 08:47:31	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x2756d2…
07-05 08:24:58	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x0c255f…
07-05 04:59:59	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x354d68…
07-05 04:14:47	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x228ca7…
07-05 03:11:05	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0xc39466…
07-05 03:10:31	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	83¢	$3	0xe86740…
07-05 01:48:59	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0xacaa83…
07-05 00:25:52	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0xb6704e…
07-04 23:43:47	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xba06b5…
07-04 21:10:11	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	98	67¢	$66	0x84f98e…
07-04 17:32:23	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0xbe9898…
07-04 13:55:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x6ad407…
07-04 13:27:32	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xf60792…
07-04 10:04:35	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0xe169b0…
07-04 08:46:29	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x9b43c7…
07-04 03:49:25	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x0432cb…
07-03 23:46:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0xbbba66…
07-03 21:17:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x128026…
07-03 17:58:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x652c1e…
07-03 17:58:01	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x5fce90…
07-03 17:54:32	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0xf061e3…
07-03 17:53:01	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x12332a…
07-03 17:50:31	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x82c951…
07-03 17:47:44	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x97bd11…
07-03 14:40:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0xb28142…
07-03 09:28:04	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x4dc03f…
07-03 09:15:31	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0xefcb18…
07-03 09:14:29	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x1874e1…
07-03 09:08:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x319a2d…
07-03 09:07:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x0237d1…
07-03 09:00:08	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0x85bbda…
07-02 21:28:34	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x08e59e…
07-02 19:19:53	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x2ac6f6…
07-02 19:19:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xdea3e3…
07-02 19:19:35	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0xecfbf5…
07-02 16:53:53	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xd4c415…
07-02 16:40:20	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x1461e9…
07-02 16:08:44	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xfec4bd…
07-02 16:05:08	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xc61c83…
07-02 16:04:59	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xc39e66…
07-02 16:04:47	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x1919f4…
07-01 07:07:43	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x573d12…
06-22 11:35:40	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x43f0bd…
06-22 11:35:11	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x40fc38…
06-22 11:00:38	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xdd7510…
06-21 13:54:25	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	6	89¢	$6	0x38e879…
06-19 20:58:17	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x4e1a60…
06-19 20:58:01	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x71d883…
06-19 20:57:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x88b1d7…
06-19 20:48:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	123	20¢	$25	0x629dd1…