Starry-Modernist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$433

Unrealized P&L

-$18

Hit rate

59.1%

Resolved

346

Trades

1,164

lifetime

Volume

$23.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$283

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-05 14:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 152 days

Categories

Other

58% 65% -$249

Politics

21% 74% -$13

Tech

10% 76% +$23

Crypto

5% 70% -$40

Sports

5% 32% -$154

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-115	-$98	98¢	$-112	-$15	06-22 16:24
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	-110	-$108	99¢	$-109	-$1	06-22 16:24
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	-30	-$25	89¢	$-27	-$2	05-03 09:14
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-15	-$15	100¢	$-15	$0	05-16 11:19
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	-10	-$10	99¢	$-10	$0	05-14 03:08
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	-10	-$9	98¢	$-10	$0	06-11 14:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	82	$2.4K	2,356	2,356	+0	No	+$5	07-14 10:00
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	13	$893	754	754	+0	open	—	10-04 15:31
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	16	$673	400	400	+0	Yes	+$20	07-23 06:57
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	20	$672	400	400	+0	No	-$4	07-17 07:48
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	13	$653	500	500	+0	No	-$11	07-26 13:30
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	5	$553	290	290	+0	open	—	08-26 08:21
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	5	$530	400	400	+0	No	-$18	07-23 22:09
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 3?	22	$400	400	400	+0	No	+$20	07-02 20:15
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	10	$397	400	400	+0	No	+$3	07-06 08:35
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	10	$375	230	150	+80	No	+$1	06-24 03:27
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	27	$373	200	200	+0	Yes	+$1	07-11 07:24
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	21	$366	200	220	-20	Yes	+$1	06-22 16:24
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	4	$339	340	340	+0	No	-$5	08-02 14:09
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?	3	$338	200	200	+0	Yes	-$2	07-04 16:27
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 6?	6	$336	400	301	+99	Yes	-$55	07-05 22:59
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	6	$317	170	170	+0	Yes	+$6	08-21 03:48
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 16?	8	$302	313	313	+0	Yes	-$6	07-15 20:47
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	14	$260	170	170	+0	open	—	06-09 08:03
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	5	$260	90	205	-115	open	—	06-22 16:24
wti up or down on july 20 2026	3	$255	397	100	+297	Up	-$61	07-20 17:13
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	11	$234	120	120	+0	No	-$1	03-02 09:49
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 15?	4	$230	200	200	+0	No	-$3	07-14 12:40
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	8	$217	110	110	+0	No	$0	02-15 22:12
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	14	$211	236	236	+0	Yes	-$11	07-06 16:16
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	4	$206	50	160	-110	open	—	06-22 16:24
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	2	$194	127	127	+0	open	—	09-12 13:26
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 20?	5	$186	200	200	+0	No	-$19	07-19 20:17
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	3	$182	100	100	+0	open	—	07-11 07:24
will kim kardashian attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357132	3	$176	150	150	+0	No	-$12	07-19 08:24
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 15?	2	$175	100	100	+0	No	+$3	07-14 14:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 14:49:19	Sam Houston vs. Liberty	Liberty	SELL	15	82¢	$12	0x783693…
10-04 15:31:29	Sam Houston vs. Liberty	Liberty	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0xb808a0…
10-04 15:31:05	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	95	85¢	$80	0x591107…
10-04 15:30:22	Colts vs. Commanders	Colts	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x5d4f8e…
09-12 13:28:09	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	95	82¢	$77	0xa3294b…
09-12 13:26:31	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	127	74¢	$94	0x3fcbbc…
09-07 14:42:27	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x85e6bd…
08-26 12:37:45	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0xfc1967…
08-26 08:21:58	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	290	95¢	$276	0x6e8480…
08-22 22:14:51	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x95b71d…
08-21 03:48:37	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x96d048…
08-17 20:05:10	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x2e81f9…
08-17 20:05:01	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xe7bc1a…
08-14 00:48:34	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	200	13¢	$25	0xbf54d5…
08-11 14:22:25	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0x37093c…
08-11 06:58:16	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x232c5e…
08-11 06:55:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on August 12?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xde80c9…
08-10 13:23:39	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	70	91¢	$64	0x41dede…
08-10 11:52:28	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0xa52736…
08-10 11:34:16	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x9d8e0d…
08-10 11:20:06	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xf85c52…
08-10 11:10:45	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	36	18¢	$6	0x50d63b…
08-10 09:33:07	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 11?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc20c51…
08-10 09:08:42	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x218082…
08-10 07:57:37	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xa97a39…
08-09 15:33:46	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	24	91¢	$21	0xbe9c09…
08-09 14:20:52	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x73991c…
08-09 13:11:01	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	46	91¢	$41	0x6a838e…
08-09 13:10:57	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	140	95¢	$134	0x85335b…
08-09 13:05:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 10?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa00f0c…
08-08 02:40:48	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	110	13¢	$14	0x63cf59…
08-08 00:32:25	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	90	13¢	$11	0xf249eb…
08-07 07:41:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 8?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfcad2d…
08-02 14:09:59	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	167	44¢	$73	0x1e8b87…
08-02 14:09:54	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	173	54¢	$93	0x615f46…
08-02 14:09:33	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 2?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd1d2dc…
08-01 15:59:18	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	167	45¢	$75	0xb28025…
08-01 15:58:51	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	173	56¢	$97	0xf84c18…
08-01 15:49:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 1?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8b4a3a…
08-01 15:49:20	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 2?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb2907f…
07-31 13:53:03	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	400	72¢	$289	0xdd027a…
07-30 09:03:21	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	134	27¢	$36	0xfd2342…
07-30 07:50:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc267e7…
07-30 07:50:36	will xrp reach 2 in july 2026	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7817eb…
07-29 23:02:57	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	66	27¢	$18	0x6fe4d7…
07-29 23:02:30	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	104	73¢	$76	0xc78d82…
07-29 23:02:23	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	96	73¢	$70	0x4c48e4…
07-29 12:54:41	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x650fd2…
07-29 12:10:05	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe2fe4b…
07-29 00:35:56	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0xf73c92…
07-29 00:01:47	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?	No	BUY	85	92¢	$78	0x6f9aa5…
07-27 13:20:16	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 27?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x33a742…
07-27 13:19:28	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x62e8dc…
07-27 13:19:09	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 28?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0b5ac7…
07-26 13:30:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	200	57¢	$113	0x85a57e…
07-26 11:08:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	11	61¢	$7	0x228520…
07-26 10:59:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	127	61¢	$77	0xa0c416…
07-26 10:51:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	62	61¢	$37	0x6281b1…
07-26 10:24:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0x039128…
07-26 10:22:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	129	63¢	$81	0x86c5ee…
07-26 10:20:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	71	63¢	$45	0x9b24c7…
07-26 10:11:07	will xrp reach 2 in july 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8fafa4…
07-26 10:10:52	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 27?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3938c6…
07-25 09:41:04	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0x913c00…
07-25 09:20:57	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	19	73¢	$14	0x4e2886…
07-25 09:20:57	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0x4e2886…
07-25 09:19:27	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0x38043c…
07-25 09:14:43	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 24?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xda5988…
07-25 09:14:42	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x5592d4…
07-23 22:09:13	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	SELL	65	64¢	$42	0xb919b1…
07-23 21:09:01	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	SELL	135	64¢	$86	0xda0557…
07-23 07:41:36	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0x65ec7a…
07-23 07:19:01	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x8c8b5e…
07-23 07:18:49	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x7513d1…
07-23 07:11:49	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x238fe4…
07-23 07:11:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 24?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6d2aab…
07-23 06:57:27	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0xe5c2f8…
07-23 06:57:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 23?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf81ef0…
07-23 06:57:03	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	154	86¢	$132	0xd641e2…
07-22 12:30:09	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x2d93a3…
07-22 12:29:40	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 23?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfc354e…
07-21 12:28:03	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 22?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1c0ba2…
07-21 08:08:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 21?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8fb7a6…
07-20 17:13:09	wti up or down on july 20 2026	Down	BUY	197	51¢	$100	0x2d3e66…
07-20 17:12:09	wti up or down on july 20 2026	Up	SELL	100	47¢	$47	0x9b63cf…
07-20 17:05:57	wti up or down on july 20 2026	Up	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0xdadb21…
07-20 07:00:36	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 21?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa1b2b8…
07-19 20:17:16	Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 20?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x0def49…
07-19 20:17:13	Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 20?	No	SELL	100	71¢	$71	0x809dcd…
07-19 10:43:19	Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 20?	No	BUY	80	52¢	$42	0x471faa…
07-19 09:29:40	Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 20?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb9d786…
07-19 09:29:27	Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xca0139…
07-19 08:24:31	will kim kardashian attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357132	No	SELL	150	55¢	$82	0x6d1f0e…
07-17 11:48:42	will kim kardashian attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357132	No	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0xaae2a3…
07-17 11:48:30	will kim kardashian attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357132	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x6a855f…
07-17 07:48:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	SELL	200	95¢	$191	0x19fda9…
07-17 07:17:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	75	96¢	$72	0x164d66…
07-17 07:04:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9951ba…
07-17 07:04:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x47b6d8…
07-17 07:04:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5be12a…