Moral-Shoe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$49

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

52.0%

Resolved

Trades

410

lifetime

Volume

$624

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$23

8 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 09-21 17:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Other

54% 51% +$4

Sports

24% 50% -$17

Politics

13% 45% -$17

Crypto

7% 47% -$19

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	No	+11	$8	76¢	$8	+$0	06-28 15:33
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	+8	$3	58¢	$5	+$2	06-19 12:14
Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	+10	$6	44¢	$4	-$2	09-21 17:08
Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	+5	$3	53¢	$3	$0	08-14 15:01
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	+21	$8	8¢	$2	-$6	07-29 13:00
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+16	$8	6¢	$1	-$7	09-21 16:08
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	-9	-$1	3¢	$-0	+$1	09-12 07:04
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	-12	-$8	2¢	$-0	+$8	06-03 04:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
starmer out by july 31 2026	26	$29	22	22	+0	Yes	+$13	06-21 15:44
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	4	$25	17	17	+0	No	+$9	04-11 02:22
nhl fla tb 2026 02 05	2	$23	14	14	+0	Lightning	+$5	02-06 02:49
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	8	$23	16	16	+0	open	—	09-20 17:06
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	3	$22	9	21	-12	No	-$2	06-03 04:07
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	4	$20	16	16	+0	No	+$4	06-29 13:35
another us government shutdown by february 14	19	$18	15	15	+0	No	+$2	02-09 07:29
nba phx por 2026 02 03	2	$13	26	0	+26	Suns	-$2	02-04 03:15
lal sev mad 2026 04 11 sev	1	$13	21	0	+21	Yes	-$13	04-11 18:23
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	34	$11	13	7	+5	Yes	-$1	08-28 08:43
bun hei uni 2026 04 11 draw	27	$11	29	28	+1	No	-$5	04-11 14:15
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	18	$11	15	15	+0	Yes	-$5	02-28 06:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$11	25	0	+25	Yes	+$14	02-09 23:38
nhl mon wpg 2026 02 04	2	$11	7	7	+0	Canadiens	+$4	02-05 04:22
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-04 17:00 UTC	2	$10	16	0	+16	Down	-$10	02-04 18:52
Fed rate hike in 2026?	17	$10	24	4	+20	Yes	-$6	08-28 10:24
nhl edm cal 2026 02 04	2	$10	20	0	+20	Flames	-$10	02-05 03:56
dota2 gl mouz 2026 02 06 game1	2	$8	9	0	+9	GamerLegion	+$1	02-06 17:58
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	1	$8	0	12	-12	open	—	06-03 04:06
epl bre eve 2026 04 11 bre	1	$8	14	0	+14	No	+$6	04-11 13:46
nba cha hou 2026 02 05 total 218pt5	2	$8	5	5	+0	Under	+$3	02-06 03:20
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?	4	$8	22	0	+22	No	-$8	07-29 11:58
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	3	$8	16	0	+16	open	—	09-21 16:08
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	3	$8	19	0	+19	Yes	+$11	06-19 02:33
will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	3	$8	15	0	+15	No	-$8	06-29 22:54
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	3	$8	23	0	+23	Yes	-$8	08-25 22:24
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	3	$8	13	0	+13	No	-$8	06-28 15:35
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	3	$8	21	0	+21	open	—	07-29 13:00
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	3	$8	21	0	+21	Yes	+$13	06-21 17:30
starmer out by june 22 2026	3	$8	15	0	+15	Yes	+$7	06-21 17:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-21 17:08:45	Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x4a2e34…
09-21 17:08:43	Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x6b4e31…
09-21 16:08:34	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xecef40…
09-21 16:08:32	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x339617…
09-21 16:07:28	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x45d896…
09-20 17:06:24	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	91¢	$14	0xb8ea49…
09-12 07:04:36	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0xa02392…
09-12 06:59:24	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0xe52996…
09-11 19:11:28	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x5c5109…
09-11 19:11:28	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x1fc9e1…
09-11 13:07:49	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x226ad7…
09-05 13:14:31	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0x241525…
09-05 09:39:58	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0xaf7b34…
08-28 10:24:21	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x21598f…
08-28 08:43:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0x216530…
08-28 08:42:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0x4d438f…
08-28 08:42:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0x065c5a…
08-28 08:22:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0x5dde43…
08-28 08:05:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0xa1ca01…
08-28 07:59:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0x981f08…
08-28 07:58:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0x4ce8c5…
08-28 07:52:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0xa4efd9…
08-28 06:41:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0xbf669b…
08-28 06:40:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0xe77bed…
08-28 06:40:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0x247f2c…
08-28 06:40:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0x7c9ff5…
08-28 06:39:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0xf8e430…
08-28 06:39:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0xfb99ad…
08-28 06:39:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0xdcd051…
08-27 17:29:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x9d25e2…
08-27 15:57:21	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xeec512…
08-27 08:55:10	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xae9b29…
08-27 08:00:39	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xce7c46…
08-27 07:19:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0xcef6d4…
08-27 06:43:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xfe6d04…
08-26 15:09:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xb80822…
08-26 10:44:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xee2366…
08-26 08:54:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0xb9cfdb…
08-25 22:24:12	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xdeb8d6…
08-25 21:42:10	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0xbab8dd…
08-25 20:51:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0x8259e0…
08-25 20:51:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	66¢	$0	0xd24ef9…
08-25 20:50:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	66¢	$0	0x34969d…
08-25 20:49:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	66¢	$0	0xa3f3df…
08-25 20:47:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	66¢	$0	0xe88e63…
08-25 20:47:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	66¢	$0	0xc93774…
08-25 20:46:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	66¢	$0	0xfc3bc6…
08-25 20:46:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	66¢	$0	0x3d5e16…
08-25 20:46:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	66¢	$0	0x1113b9…
08-25 10:11:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x4865ed…
08-25 06:59:52	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x138251…
08-25 06:34:21	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0xdc7c6a…
08-23 17:12:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0xd0507d…
08-19 21:27:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0x157411…
08-17 14:48:19	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xf96066…
08-14 15:01:42	Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xada0f5…
08-14 12:32:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0xd70c7a…
08-14 12:30:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x03b7ec…
08-14 12:30:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x3d60a2…
08-14 12:30:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x3034b2…
08-14 12:18:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x1963d0…
08-14 12:10:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x00bbdf…
08-12 11:54:36	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x550853…
08-12 02:57:55	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x8f1f6b…
08-08 13:25:10	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xba9645…
07-29 19:18:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xb92822…
07-29 19:18:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x69ac42…
07-29 19:00:44	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xc04eb7…
07-29 18:58:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xd20d84…
07-29 18:49:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xdd8b15…
07-29 13:00:12	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xd9a960…
07-29 13:00:11	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xa09904…
07-29 12:32:06	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x671a35…
07-29 11:58:56	Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?	Yes	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0x23a710…
07-29 06:01:33	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0xa0e5e4…
07-28 23:10:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xd83703…
07-28 23:10:38	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xa536ea…
07-28 22:24:25	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xa1a7c8…
07-26 13:22:27	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x2146f7…
07-26 13:15:27	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x768162…
07-26 11:09:25	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xf72e4c…
07-26 11:08:16	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x42a392…
07-26 11:08:09	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x673cac…
07-26 08:52:52	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xd198cb…
07-26 07:02:15	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x707d35…
07-26 07:02:12	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x11a9b8…
07-26 06:54:22	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xb6334a…
07-26 06:54:15	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x48033d…
07-26 05:59:12	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x87acd3…
07-26 05:58:28	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x7482f0…
07-26 05:58:15	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x0b2c32…
07-26 05:57:51	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xe051d8…
07-26 05:54:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x5b5193…
07-26 05:54:28	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x460710…
07-26 05:38:07	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x69a66b…
07-26 05:37:31	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x3c470c…
07-26 03:41:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0x79232d…
07-26 01:26:48	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xd5ff39…
07-25 18:12:39	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xbe5be0…
07-25 15:55:40	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xcbca44…