Ironclad-Midnight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

+$18

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

146

Trades

1,460

lifetime

Volume

$15.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$50

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-06 18:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

79% 100% +$12

Politics

11% — —

Other

8% 100% +$2

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 158 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes		-130	$-68	38¢	$-50	+$18	06-03 08:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	4	$580	400	400	+0	open	—	06-04 11:48
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$524	400	400	+0	open	—	06-03 15:13
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	5	$381	409	409	+0	open	—	06-06 18:36
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	05-30 22:37
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	3	$304	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 20:32
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	7	$299	236	366	-130	open	—	06-03 08:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$252	200	200	+0	open	—	06-03 20:41
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$212	200	200	+0	open	—	05-22 23:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$152	100	100	+0	open	—	05-25 11:09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	2	$152	200	200	+0	open	—	05-26 14:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$60	200	200	+0	open	—	05-22 22:07
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$56	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 13:53
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	2	$24	200	200	+0	open	—	06-05 15:06
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-20 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-21 10:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-19 14:07
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 15:02
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 14:38
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 12:04
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 13:37
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-19 10:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-20 14:17
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 20:39
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-19 14:07
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 14:13
BNB Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-19 07:43
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-20 19:59
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 14:38
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 13:43
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 19:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 18:36:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0x5ecbb9…
06-06 09:34:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0x575989…
06-05 15:06:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0x27bf76…
06-05 15:05:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x0f2902…
06-05 12:56:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	106	60¢	$64	0x30c696…
06-05 12:55:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	103	60¢	$62	0x375a81…
06-05 12:53:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	209	60¢	$125	0x8e4fd2…
06-04 11:48:16	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0xffdf91…
06-04 11:38:03	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0x43d97d…
06-03 20:45:22	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	200	72¢	$144	0xaf6b26…
06-03 20:41:57	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x8d7fe8…
06-03 20:41:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0xbef1a4…
06-03 19:48:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xed8710…
06-03 15:13:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0xbfbb16…
06-03 08:05:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	51	49¢	$25	0xfec162…
06-03 05:32:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0xdf0907…
06-03 03:11:38	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0xdf5abb…
06-03 02:57:33	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	51	49¢	$25	0xcbda5e…
06-02 18:49:53	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	110	49¢	$54	0xc8fef8…
06-02 13:53:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x3eaacc…
06-02 08:52:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x1d2667…
06-01 20:32:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	71	76¢	$54	0xe853ae…
06-01 18:49:38	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	129	76¢	$98	0xcf6b8f…
06-01 15:56:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0x1e5756…
05-31 23:26:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0xbae73e…
05-31 22:14:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x7cbdb4…
05-30 22:37:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0xf3e841…
05-30 21:41:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x2145e0…
05-30 04:53:06	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	126	49¢	$62	0x2102ea…
05-30 04:44:56	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	126	49¢	$62	0x05b826…
05-28 16:59:14	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	130	52¢	$68	0xb22e13…
05-26 14:36:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0xb9b730…
05-26 13:55:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xed1626…
05-25 11:09:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0xbe5cca…
05-25 11:09:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x008df0…
05-22 23:57:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0xa711af…
05-22 22:07:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0xbf39af…
05-22 22:02:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x2889a3…
05-22 20:24:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x8c649f…
05-21 10:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x78fd01…
05-21 10:27:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xcd56ff…
05-20 19:59:27	XRP Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xba718b…
05-20 15:18:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x04c9ff…
05-20 15:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x72ea8a…
05-20 14:18:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xd4266e…
05-20 14:17:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x0f45f8…
05-20 14:12:36	XRP Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x33250e…
05-19 15:34:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xdb8722…
05-19 14:23:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xa8b6c3…
05-19 14:07:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x13a5fc…
05-19 14:07:48	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x5fca18…
05-19 13:29:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x4d2e1e…
05-19 10:58:31	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x1325f7…
05-19 09:48:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x4692d9…
05-19 07:43:58	BNB Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x7dc30a…
05-18 23:59:52	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8c1282…
05-18 20:39:21	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x83ae07…
05-18 19:07:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xa0b849…
05-18 17:57:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x6b757a…
05-18 15:02:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x318ccf…
05-18 14:38:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x57ab2b…
05-18 14:38:49	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xa78da0…
05-18 14:33:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0xb45434…
05-18 14:14:00	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x57e70c…
05-18 14:13:28	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x682f3d…
05-18 13:43:54	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x8a8cff…
05-18 13:37:55	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x20b2a3…
05-18 13:37:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x420641…
05-18 12:04:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xd066e9…
05-18 11:49:01	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x0f2ec9…
05-18 01:57:45	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x6ad20c…
05-18 01:19:06	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xd76177…
05-18 00:57:48	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x4d7cc2…
05-18 00:38:47	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xf147c5…
05-18 00:34:20	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xb3e8b9…
05-18 00:34:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xf1de31…
05-18 00:08:54	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xaf9424…
05-18 00:03:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x4341df…
05-17 23:57:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xf260d3…
05-17 23:53:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xf47c01…
05-17 23:43:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x332ec2…
05-17 23:42:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xb3614d…
05-17 23:39:17	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xa1a84e…
05-17 23:29:07	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x0914fc…
05-17 07:57:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x1f4055…
05-16 19:49:07	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x30f216…
05-16 19:49:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x368ba7…
05-16 11:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x35f6d7…
05-16 09:18:09	BNB Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x4c594c…
05-16 09:09:56	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xe10d85…
05-16 03:04:28	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x092b0d…
05-16 02:29:42	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc836d2…
05-15 15:28:21	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x83707e…
05-15 14:29:30	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xdd8e71…
05-15 14:09:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x615dd2…
05-15 14:09:24	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xb04ea0…
05-15 13:58:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x59d76d…
05-15 13:58:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x813b10…
05-15 13:57:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x98b188…
05-15 13:57:33	BNB Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xf8439e…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Unruly-Raisin 0x4070…cedf	969	$6.36K	990	06-06 22:05
Blaring-Depression 0xf628…7ff9	956	$12.3K	976	06-06 18:35
Ethical-Kitty 0x77bf…5b94	938	$14.8K	954	06-09 16:30
Greedy-Inhabitant 0x58bc…5d8f	854	$4.91K	866	06-05 12:55
Distinct-Drug 0x218f…91f7	853	$5.89K	872	06-06 22:04
Likely-Civilisation 0xca85…0f4a	850	$5.57K	864	06-09 16:30
Double-Modernity-Atrium 0xbb09…fd18	844	$6.13K	865	06-06 18:35
Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de	837	$524	3,079	06-08 02:09