Ironclad-Midnight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

146

Trades

1,491

lifetime

Volume

$17.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$53

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-30 18:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

72% 100% +$12

Politics

14% — —

Other

12% 100% +$2

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 158 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes		-130	$-68	41¢	$-53	+$14	06-03 08:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	4	$580	400	400	+0	open	—	06-04 11:48
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$524	400	400	+0	open	—	06-03 15:13
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	10	$446	359	489	-130	open	—	06-29 21:38
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	5	$381	409	409	+0	open	—	06-06 18:36
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	2	$348	200	200	+0	open	—	06-26 12:20
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	05-30 22:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$328	200	200	+0	open	—	06-14 11:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$320	200	200	+0	open	—	06-12 14:52
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	3	$304	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 20:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$252	200	200	+0	open	—	06-03 20:41
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$212	200	200	+0	open	—	05-22 23:57
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$195	212	212	+0	open	—	06-30 18:21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	2	$152	200	200	+0	open	—	05-26 14:36
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$152	100	100	+0	open	—	05-25 11:09
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	2	$67	38	38	+0	open	—	06-17 08:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$60	200	200	+0	open	—	05-22 22:07
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$56	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 13:53
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	11	$52	200	200	+0	open	—	06-18 21:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$42	51	51	+0	open	—	06-26 04:17
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	2	$24	200	200	+0	open	—	06-05 15:06
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	5	$21	20	20	+0	open	—	06-18 05:50
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-20 14:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-21 10:28
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-19 14:07
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-20 19:59
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 13:43
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 20:39
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 13:37
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 19:07
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-18 11:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 18:21:22	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	212	46¢	$98	0xc5e79e…
06-30 17:23:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	212	46¢	$98	0x4a77a9…
06-29 21:38:35	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	108	60¢	$65	0x8d6dc7…
06-29 04:46:55	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0xc3e72c…
06-29 02:10:20	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	123	60¢	$74	0x74b1b2…
06-26 12:20:31	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0xcecc71…
06-26 11:59:52	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xf5c452…
06-26 04:17:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	41¢	$21	0x2c58f9…
06-26 04:17:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	41¢	$21	0x30a2cc…
06-18 21:48:23	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	28	13¢	$4	0xa0a44b…
06-18 20:30:58	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xe95c0a…
06-18 20:30:19	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0xaecfe0…
06-18 20:30:13	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xbe2005…
06-18 20:28:17	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x5920ee…
06-18 20:27:52	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x916841…
06-18 20:26:17	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0xe973c9…
06-18 20:26:01	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0xd668df…
06-18 20:25:49	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xeafb14…
06-18 19:40:10	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	150	13¢	$20	0xf30a3c…
06-18 19:14:01	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0xe67a68…
06-18 05:50:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x32b9da…
06-18 05:49:44	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0xcf7539…
06-18 05:49:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xcd58c3…
06-18 05:46:53	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x3e0a36…
06-18 05:45:53	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xae861a…
06-17 08:39:08	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	38	87¢	$33	0x14d35e…
06-17 08:37:31	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	38	87¢	$33	0xb9b12a…
06-14 11:26:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x01270e…
06-13 11:12:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x7b19c6…
06-12 14:52:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x353ae2…
06-12 14:50:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0xe4a6ee…
06-06 18:36:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0x5ecbb9…
06-06 09:34:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0x575989…
06-05 15:06:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0x27bf76…
06-05 15:05:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x0f2902…
06-05 12:56:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	106	60¢	$64	0x30c696…
06-05 12:55:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	103	60¢	$62	0x375a81…
06-05 12:53:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	209	60¢	$125	0x8e4fd2…
06-04 11:48:16	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0xffdf91…
06-04 11:38:03	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0x43d97d…
06-03 20:45:22	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	200	72¢	$144	0xaf6b26…
06-03 20:41:57	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x8d7fe8…
06-03 20:41:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0xbef1a4…
06-03 19:48:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xed8710…
06-03 15:13:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0xbfbb16…
06-03 08:05:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	51	49¢	$25	0xfec162…
06-03 05:32:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0xdf0907…
06-03 03:11:38	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0xdf5abb…
06-03 02:57:33	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	51	49¢	$25	0xcbda5e…
06-02 18:49:53	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	110	49¢	$54	0xc8fef8…
06-02 13:53:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x3eaacc…
06-02 08:52:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x1d2667…
06-01 20:32:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	71	76¢	$54	0xe853ae…
06-01 18:49:38	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	129	76¢	$98	0xcf6b8f…
06-01 15:56:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0x1e5756…
05-31 23:26:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0xbae73e…
05-31 22:14:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x7cbdb4…
05-30 22:37:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0xf3e841…
05-30 21:41:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x2145e0…
05-30 04:53:06	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	126	49¢	$62	0x2102ea…
05-30 04:44:56	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	126	49¢	$62	0x05b826…
05-28 16:59:14	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	130	52¢	$68	0xb22e13…
05-26 14:36:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0xb9b730…
05-26 13:55:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xed1626…
05-25 11:09:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0xbe5cca…
05-25 11:09:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x008df0…
05-22 23:57:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0xa711af…
05-22 22:07:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0xbf39af…
05-22 22:02:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x2889a3…
05-22 20:24:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x8c649f…
05-21 10:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x78fd01…
05-21 10:27:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xcd56ff…
05-20 19:59:27	XRP Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xba718b…
05-20 15:18:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x04c9ff…
05-20 15:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x72ea8a…
05-20 14:18:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xd4266e…
05-20 14:17:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x0f45f8…
05-20 14:12:36	XRP Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x33250e…
05-19 15:34:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xdb8722…
05-19 14:23:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xa8b6c3…
05-19 14:07:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x13a5fc…
05-19 14:07:48	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x5fca18…
05-19 13:29:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x4d2e1e…
05-19 10:58:31	XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x1325f7…
05-19 09:48:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x4692d9…
05-19 07:43:58	BNB Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x7dc30a…
05-18 23:59:52	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8c1282…
05-18 20:39:21	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x83ae07…
05-18 19:07:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xa0b849…
05-18 17:57:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x6b757a…
05-18 15:02:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x318ccf…
05-18 14:38:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x57ab2b…
05-18 14:38:49	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xa78da0…
05-18 14:33:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0xb45434…
05-18 14:14:00	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x57e70c…
05-18 14:13:28	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x682f3d…
05-18 13:43:54	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x8a8cff…
05-18 13:37:55	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x20b2a3…
05-18 13:37:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x420641…
05-18 12:04:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xd066e9…