Ironclad-Midnight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$107

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.0%

Resolved

1,461

Trades

1,597

lifetime

Volume

$23.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 07-13 18:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 99% -$43

Other

22% 90% +$7

Politics

17% 8% -$76

Sports

6% 17% +$4

Tech

3% 0% —

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-13).

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	6	$704	600	600	+0	Yes	+$0	06-03 15:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$693	614	614	+0	No	+$0	06-14 11:26
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	9	$598	500	500	+0	Yes	$0	07-03 19:55
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	4	$580	400	400	+0	Yes	+$0	06-04 11:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$542	400	400	+0	No	+$2	07-03 06:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	4	$520	400	400	+0	open	—	07-07 01:40
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	11	$514	489	489	+0	open	—	06-29 21:38
Fed rate hike in 2026?	5	$411	412	412	+0	Yes	+$0	07-11 23:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	5	$381	409	409	+0	Yes	-$14	06-06 18:36
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	4	$356	200	200	+0	No	+$0	07-02 14:29
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	2	$348	200	200	+0	open	—	06-26 12:20
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$340	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-30 22:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$340	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	07-06 16:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$320	200	200	+0	open	—	06-12 14:52
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	3	$304	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-01 20:32
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?	2	$280	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-23 10:17
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$260	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	07-04 08:03
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$226	213	213	+0	Yes	+$4	06-18 01:59
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$216	200	200	+0	No	+$0	07-01 18:06
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$212	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	05-22 23:57
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	2	$206	200	200	+0	No	-$54	07-13 18:14
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	2	$196	200	200	+0	No	+$0	07-08 11:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	4	$196	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	06-02 01:09
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	11	$168	200	200	+0	No	+$0	07-07 12:10
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	2	$152	206	206	+0	open	—	07-13 13:24
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	2	$152	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-26 14:36
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$152	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	05-25 11:09
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$150	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-26 19:33
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	2	$148	200	200	+0	open	—	07-08 02:04
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	3	$140	100	100	+0	No	+$0	06-17 22:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 18:14:05	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0x4482cd…
07-13 18:12:44	Will G2 Esports Win LEC Summer Split 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	40¢	$24	0x490234…
07-13 15:21:40	Will G2 Esports Win LEC Summer Split 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	42¢	$26	0x211fe3…
07-13 13:24:34	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	206	28¢	$58	0x2a6d98…
07-12 05:39:28	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	50¢	$30	0x2190d2…
07-12 04:46:19	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x5f37f2…
07-11 23:57:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	54¢	$18	0xa263dc…
07-11 23:49:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	54¢	$90	0x8bc5f5…
07-09 10:10:23	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x7d6a22…
07-08 11:52:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	200	49¢	$98	0x527137…
07-08 11:52:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0xce0943…
07-08 02:04:19	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	200	37¢	$74	0x8ad0f7…
07-07 19:58:53	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xd34ded…
07-07 12:10:50	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	SELL	1	42¢	$1	0xa89d02…
07-07 12:10:46	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0xa61175…
07-07 12:10:11	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0x505443…
07-07 12:10:05	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	SELL	30	42¢	$13	0xbe2f8c…
07-07 12:09:41	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0xed966b…
07-07 12:09:41	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0xbd40a8…
07-07 12:09:41	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0xb8b6f4…
07-07 12:09:41	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0x7aa083…
07-07 12:09:41	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0x1f2a1e…
07-07 12:09:31	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	SELL	141	42¢	$59	0x892661…
07-07 12:07:22	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	No	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0x42d2ff…
07-07 11:29:26	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0x4517c2…
07-07 01:40:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0xf9d0fb…
07-06 23:21:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xa9f42a…
07-06 16:51:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x943e61…
07-06 16:51:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xff7125…
07-06 10:42:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0x41e8e4…
07-06 10:42:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x0cf5c7…
07-05 12:01:25	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	SELL	60	87¢	$52	0x35e860…
07-05 12:01:20	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	60	87¢	$52	0x6a7190…
07-05 01:46:08	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	57¢	$57	0x08db4f…
07-05 01:45:46	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xc3f183…
07-04 13:37:58	Will T1 win MSI 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0xec54d0…
07-04 13:37:40	Will T1 win MSI 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xef71d4…
07-04 13:30:22	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	206	46¢	$95	0xa96683…
07-04 08:03:26	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	65¢	$130	0x6ea6d9…
07-04 04:28:28	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x803821…
07-03 22:05:17	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	52	59¢	$31	0x87f69f…
07-03 19:55:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x2f5d45…
07-03 19:41:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0xbc9f93…
07-03 18:11:56	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	52	58¢	$30	0x62f995…
07-03 16:52:50	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	59¢	$30	0xbeab73…
07-03 16:52:50	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0x66fd79…
07-03 13:24:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	200	71¢	$142	0x4de2db…
07-03 12:32:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x44b55f…
07-03 06:01:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0x19a0bb…
07-02 16:40:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	75	85¢	$64	0xf830ee…
07-02 15:56:02	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	75	85¢	$64	0x1d8d5c…
07-02 14:29:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	198	89¢	$177	0xd0593f…
07-02 14:28:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x9d5d7e…
07-02 14:28:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x3240f9…
07-02 14:27:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x7b82a5…
07-02 14:24:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xf3e728…
07-02 04:52:40	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	63	74¢	$47	0xb78029…
07-02 01:02:01	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	63	74¢	$47	0xca9421…
07-01 18:58:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x950017…
07-01 18:57:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x7e71dc…
07-01 18:43:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	69	29¢	$20	0x904d75…
07-01 18:06:22	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	64	54¢	$34	0xc9275e…
07-01 18:06:22	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	114	54¢	$62	0x810a97…
07-01 18:06:20	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	22	54¢	$12	0x5f1e48…
07-01 18:06:14	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x839028…
07-01 17:31:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	17	29¢	$5	0x1d4b84…
07-01 17:28:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x78cca4…
06-30 18:21:22	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	212	46¢	$98	0xc5e79e…
06-30 17:23:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	212	46¢	$98	0x4a77a9…
06-30 02:52:34	Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	148	25¢	$37	0x5e3827…
06-30 02:52:25	Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	23	25¢	$6	0xb0aa97…
06-30 02:38:16	Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	171	25¢	$43	0x5929b5…
06-29 21:38:35	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	108	60¢	$65	0x8d6dc7…
06-29 04:46:55	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0xc3e72c…
06-29 02:10:20	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	123	60¢	$74	0x74b1b2…
06-26 12:20:31	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0xcecc71…
06-26 11:59:52	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xf5c452…
06-26 04:17:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	41¢	$21	0x2c58f9…
06-26 04:17:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	41¢	$21	0x30a2cc…
06-25 00:46:07	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	101	60¢	$61	0xd510fc…
06-25 00:39:38	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	101	60¢	$61	0x3acadc…
06-18 21:48:23	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	28	13¢	$4	0xa0a44b…
06-18 20:30:58	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xe95c0a…
06-18 20:30:19	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0xaecfe0…
06-18 20:30:13	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xbe2005…
06-18 20:28:17	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x5920ee…
06-18 20:27:52	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x916841…
06-18 20:26:17	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0xe973c9…
06-18 20:26:01	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0xd668df…
06-18 20:25:49	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xeafb14…
06-18 19:40:10	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	150	13¢	$20	0xf30a3c…
06-18 19:14:01	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0xe67a68…
06-18 05:50:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x32b9da…
06-18 05:49:44	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0xcf7539…
06-18 05:49:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xcd58c3…
06-18 05:46:53	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x3e0a36…
06-18 05:45:53	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xae861a…
06-18 01:59:43	Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	213	54¢	$115	0xa972af…
06-18 01:59:38	Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	213	52¢	$111	0x364ca7…
06-17 22:30:46	Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	No	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x6bd4af…