Ironclad-Midnight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

+$24

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

146

Trades

1,527

lifetime

Volume

$20.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$44

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 07-13 18:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

61% 100% +$12

Other

18% 100% +$2

Politics

16% — —

Sports

3% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes		-130	$-68	34¢	$-44	+$24	06-03 08:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	9	$598	500	500	+0	open	—	07-03 19:55
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	4	$580	400	400	+0	open	—	06-04 11:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$542	400	400	+0	open	—	07-03 06:01
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$524	400	400	+0	open	—	06-03 15:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	4	$520	400	400	+0	open	—	07-07 01:40
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	10	$446	359	489	-130	open	—	06-29 21:38
Fed rate hike in 2026?	5	$411	412	412	+0	open	—	07-11 23:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	5	$381	409	409	+0	open	—	06-06 18:36
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	4	$356	200	200	+0	open	—	07-02 14:29
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	2	$348	200	200	+0	open	—	06-26 12:20
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	05-30 22:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$328	200	200	+0	open	—	06-14 11:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$320	200	200	+0	open	—	06-12 14:52
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	3	$304	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 20:32
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$212	200	200	+0	open	—	05-22 23:57
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	2	$206	200	200	+0	open	—	07-13 18:14
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	2	$196	200	200	+0	open	—	07-08 11:52
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	2	$152	206	206	+0	open	—	07-13 13:24
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	2	$152	200	200	+0	open	—	05-26 14:36
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$152	100	100	+0	open	—	05-25 11:09
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	2	$148	200	200	+0	open	—	07-08 02:04
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	2	$114	100	100	+0	open	—	07-05 01:46
russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	2	$104	60	60	+0	open	—	07-05 12:01
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	2	$67	38	38	+0	open	—	06-17 08:39
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	2	$60	60	60	+0	open	—	07-12 05:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$60	200	200	+0	open	—	05-22 22:07
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$56	200	200	+0	open	—	06-02 13:53
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	11	$52	200	200	+0	open	—	06-18 21:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$42	51	51	+0	open	—	06-26 04:17
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	2	$24	200	200	+0	open	—	06-05 15:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 18:14:05	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0x4482cd…
07-13 13:24:34	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	206	28¢	$58	0x2a6d98…
07-12 05:39:28	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	50¢	$30	0x2190d2…
07-12 04:46:19	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x5f37f2…
07-11 23:57:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	54¢	$18	0xa263dc…
07-11 23:49:49	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	54¢	$90	0x8bc5f5…
07-09 10:10:23	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x7d6a22…
07-08 11:52:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	200	49¢	$98	0x527137…
07-08 11:52:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0xce0943…
07-08 02:04:19	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	200	37¢	$74	0x8ad0f7…
07-07 19:58:53	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xd34ded…
07-07 11:29:26	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0x4517c2…
07-07 01:40:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0xf9d0fb…
07-06 23:21:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xa9f42a…
07-06 10:42:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0x41e8e4…
07-06 10:42:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0x0cf5c7…
07-05 12:01:25	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	SELL	60	87¢	$52	0x35e860…
07-05 12:01:20	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	60	87¢	$52	0x6a7190…
07-05 01:46:08	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	57¢	$57	0x08db4f…
07-05 01:45:46	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xc3f183…
07-04 13:30:22	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	206	46¢	$95	0xa96683…
07-03 19:55:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x2f5d45…
07-03 19:41:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0xbc9f93…
07-03 13:24:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	200	71¢	$142	0x4de2db…
07-03 12:32:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x44b55f…
07-03 06:01:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0x19a0bb…
07-02 14:29:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	198	89¢	$177	0xd0593f…
07-02 14:28:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x9d5d7e…
07-02 14:28:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x3240f9…
07-02 14:27:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x7b82a5…
07-02 14:24:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xf3e728…
07-01 18:58:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x950017…
07-01 18:57:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x7e71dc…
07-01 18:43:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	69	29¢	$20	0x904d75…
07-01 17:31:20	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	17	29¢	$5	0x1d4b84…
07-01 17:28:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x78cca4…
06-30 18:21:22	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	212	46¢	$98	0xc5e79e…
06-30 17:23:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	212	46¢	$98	0x4a77a9…
06-29 21:38:35	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	108	60¢	$65	0x8d6dc7…
06-29 04:46:55	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0xc3e72c…
06-29 02:10:20	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	123	60¢	$74	0x74b1b2…
06-26 12:20:31	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0xcecc71…
06-26 11:59:52	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xf5c452…
06-26 04:17:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	41¢	$21	0x2c58f9…
06-26 04:17:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	41¢	$21	0x30a2cc…
06-18 21:48:23	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	28	13¢	$4	0xa0a44b…
06-18 20:30:58	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xe95c0a…
06-18 20:30:19	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0xaecfe0…
06-18 20:30:13	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xbe2005…
06-18 20:28:17	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x5920ee…
06-18 20:27:52	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x916841…
06-18 20:26:17	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0xe973c9…
06-18 20:26:01	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0xd668df…
06-18 20:25:49	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xeafb14…
06-18 19:40:10	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	150	13¢	$20	0xf30a3c…
06-18 19:14:01	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0xe67a68…
06-18 05:50:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x32b9da…
06-18 05:49:44	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0xcf7539…
06-18 05:49:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xcd58c3…
06-18 05:46:53	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x3e0a36…
06-18 05:45:53	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xae861a…
06-17 08:39:08	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	38	87¢	$33	0x14d35e…
06-17 08:37:31	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	38	87¢	$33	0xb9b12a…
06-14 11:26:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x01270e…
06-13 11:12:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x7b19c6…
06-12 14:52:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x353ae2…
06-12 14:50:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0xe4a6ee…
06-06 18:36:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0x5ecbb9…
06-06 09:34:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0x575989…
06-05 15:06:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0x27bf76…
06-05 15:05:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x0f2902…
06-05 12:56:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	106	60¢	$64	0x30c696…
06-05 12:55:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	103	60¢	$62	0x375a81…
06-05 12:53:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	209	60¢	$125	0x8e4fd2…
06-04 11:48:16	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0xffdf91…
06-04 11:38:03	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0x43d97d…
06-03 20:45:22	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	200	72¢	$144	0xaf6b26…
06-03 20:41:57	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x8d7fe8…
06-03 20:41:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0xbef1a4…
06-03 19:48:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xed8710…
06-03 15:13:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	200	69¢	$138	0xbfbb16…
06-03 08:05:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	51	49¢	$25	0xfec162…
06-03 05:32:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	69¢	$138	0xdf0907…
06-03 03:11:38	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0xdf5abb…
06-03 02:57:33	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	51	49¢	$25	0xcbda5e…
06-02 18:49:53	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	110	49¢	$54	0xc8fef8…
06-02 13:53:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x3eaacc…
06-02 08:52:31	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x1d2667…
06-01 20:32:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	71	76¢	$54	0xe853ae…
06-01 18:49:38	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	129	76¢	$98	0xcf6b8f…
06-01 15:56:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0x1e5756…
05-31 23:26:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0xbae73e…
05-31 22:14:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x7cbdb4…
05-30 22:37:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0xf3e841…
05-30 21:41:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x2145e0…
05-30 04:53:06	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	126	49¢	$62	0x2102ea…
05-30 04:44:56	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	126	49¢	$62	0x05b826…
05-28 16:59:14	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	130	52¢	$68	0xb22e13…
05-26 14:36:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0xb9b730…
05-26 13:55:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xed1626…