Taut-Dogwood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$83

Unrealized P&L

+$46

Hit rate

81.5%

Resolved

Trades

5,717

lifetime

Volume

$563.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$99

Open exposure

$1.15K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-08 20:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

89% 50% $-83

Politics

11% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 162 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	+658	$632	99¢	$653	+$21	06-07 12:32
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	-300	$-301	97¢	$-292	+$8	06-08 20:11
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	+120	$104	92¢	$111	+$6	06-08 13:37
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	No	+63	$62	99¢	$63	+$1	06-01 04:49
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	No	-20	$-20	99¢	$-20	$-0	06-07 15:01
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?	No	-10	$-10	99¢	$-10	$-0	06-07 15:01
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	+0	$-10	99¢	$0	+$10	06-08 06:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	171	$60.2K	51,342	10,902	+40,440	open	—	01-28 05:27
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	122	$41.8K	16,309	26,228	-9,919	open	—	02-18 19:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	19	$39.9K	39,650	400	+39,250	open	—	05-07 08:55
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	147	$32.3K	28,386	4,298	+24,088	open	—	04-27 22:16
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	207	$31.2K	25,990	7,146	+18,845	open	—	03-18 14:30
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	189	$29.7K	18,912	11,007	+7,905	open	—	03-01 01:22
will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	98	$28.9K	29,160	0	+29,160	open	—	02-04 00:34
negative gdp growth in 2025	46	$11.2K	11,243	0	+11,243	open	—	02-20 12:35
will danielle martin win the by election for the seat of universityrosedale in the house of commons of canada	136	$10.8K	10,833	0	+10,833	open	—	04-14 00:44
will the fed cutpausepause in the next three decisions decjanmar	197	$10.2K	6,845	3,573	+3,272	open	—	03-15 05:26
will the bank of canada announce no change at the march meeting	257	$9.9K	10,264	0	+10,264	open	—	03-14 17:02
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	7	$7.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	02-05 17:51
will crude oil cl hit low 50 by end of march 969 293 176 621 832 316 288 934 812 659 162	35	$7.5K	7,452	50	+7,402	open	—	03-23 16:04
will the bank of korea make no change to the base rate after the april meeting	39	$7.2K	6,087	1,180	+4,907	open	—	04-10 05:04
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?	136	$6.9K	5,894	1,121	+4,772	open	—	04-28 04:16
fed rate cut by march 2026 meeting	121	$6.2K	5,425	939	+4,486	open	—	03-17 21:52
no change in bank of englands interest rates after february 2026 meeting	47	$6.1K	5,855	300	+5,555	open	—	02-05 07:54
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?	40	$5.3K	5,394	0	+5,394	open	—	04-14 03:05
will the ecb announce an increase at the march 2026 meeting	9	$5.2K	5,208	0	+5,208	open	—	03-19 12:01
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	38	$5.1K	3,877	1,345	+2,532	open	—	05-19 23:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	21	$5.1K	4,894	280	+4,614	open	—	04-30 20:00
will the bank of korea increase the base rate after the april meeting	2	$5.0K	5,051	0	+5,051	open	—	04-10 05:29
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	48	$4.7K	3,601	1,479	+2,122	open	—	02-28 18:39
no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	154	$4.7K	3,015	2,252	+763	open	—	03-18 22:50
will crude oil cl hit low 45 by end of march 524 288 596 421 318 497 667 674 276 275	30	$4.5K	4,555	0	+4,555	open	—	03-23 15:15
will the bank of canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the march meeting	97	$4.5K	491	4,045	-3,555	open	—	03-18 16:55
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	71	$4.4K	2,736	1,785	+951	open	—	03-26 04:47
will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the february decision	45	$4.4K	4,419	0	+4,419	open	—	02-17 23:33
lisa cook out as fed governor by february 28	26	$4.1K	4,105	0	+4,105	open	—	02-27 16:00
will the bank of new zealand increase the official cash rate after the february decision	19	$4.0K	4,051	0	+4,051	open	—	02-18 00:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 20:11:31	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	477	97¢	$463	0x2f2e9c…
06-08 20:11:09	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0x7ec282…
06-08 13:37:55	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x6f4df3…
06-08 06:05:49	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	250	99¢	$248	0xc2f230…
06-07 21:39:04	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	154	99¢	$153	0xa8855a…
06-07 21:11:33	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0b6816…
06-07 20:59:01	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb86c6f…
06-07 20:20:55	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xf114a4…
06-07 19:23:45	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x70faf8…
06-07 18:02:45	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x241b5d…
06-07 16:54:52	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x7dc6b2…
06-07 16:11:45	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x44fb3c…
06-07 15:01:55	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xb4bef8…
06-07 15:01:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xebfa18…
06-07 15:01:03	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5ed05d…
06-07 14:57:48	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x549660…
06-07 12:32:58	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xda788e…
06-07 07:26:37	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xd6e395…
06-07 07:18:07	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x36bd49…
06-07 06:09:37	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0xde0a53…
06-07 05:41:43	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8c77b7…
06-07 04:59:45	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0xc1135f…
06-04 12:58:45	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x70a960…
06-04 02:22:09	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xadb1c3…
06-02 16:15:18	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x8d8783…
06-02 15:03:19	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xa26211…
06-02 10:46:36	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$27	0x720ae4…
06-02 10:46:27	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	70	92¢	$65	0x031b91…
06-02 08:39:31	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xe355f8…
06-02 00:04:40	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x7adff4…
06-02 00:03:37	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	63	94¢	$59	0xe9d505…
06-02 00:03:16	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x691569…
06-01 04:49:57	Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	63	98¢	$62	0xf0e38c…
05-31 13:48:55	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x8bf55c…
05-31 11:21:09	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x272074…
05-31 08:11:41	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$41	0xffeff6…
05-31 01:07:27	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xdc640c…
05-30 19:49:41	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$43	0xe07e00…
05-29 14:20:09	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	61¢	$11	0x8714f4…
05-29 13:57:20	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x867ec8…
05-29 13:56:12	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xf5c820…
05-28 12:56:58	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7a6860…
05-20 16:14:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	SELL	760	100¢	$758	0x47164c…
05-20 15:37:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x3d1c9e…
05-20 11:51:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x5bc067…
05-20 10:43:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	SELL	748	100¢	$745	0x0b5f33…
05-20 10:35:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xcd5ba5…
05-20 10:34:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xe2f2d2…
05-20 10:32:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xd9efd5…
05-20 10:28:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x40144d…
05-20 10:25:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xcffce0…
05-20 10:17:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x9959fe…
05-20 09:57:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x65810b…
05-19 23:04:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x7238e9…
05-19 22:40:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xe3f7ec…
05-19 22:39:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x9582a6…
05-19 22:37:56	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	59	98¢	$59	0x0d41bd…
05-19 22:36:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x08fb09…
05-18 17:55:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xc1f91b…
05-18 17:24:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x7b07ed…
05-18 15:20:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x93de09…
05-18 04:25:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0xe22b8e…
05-18 04:25:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x9bfd3a…
05-18 04:06:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$61	0xf312aa…
05-18 04:03:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xcbf80f…
05-18 00:53:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0xd175e3…
05-17 20:20:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0xd52dcd…
05-17 20:02:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	147	99¢	$145	0xe98d4d…
05-16 09:32:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	191	100¢	$190	0xf1eb53…
05-16 09:25:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	730	100¢	$729	0x7c9b06…
05-16 09:23:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xf8e563…
05-16 00:16:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xfeec63…
05-15 17:44:37	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x5a1e64…
05-14 20:32:17	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0xa55f82…
05-14 18:44:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$997	0xc1ecf8…
05-13 21:12:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0xca7833…
05-12 06:31:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$197	0xa360bf…
05-12 06:31:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	545	99¢	$539	0x38600f…
05-12 06:31:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	400	99¢	$394	0x37dc56…
05-12 02:20:34	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x3f10cc…
05-11 07:31:04	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0x942909…
05-10 11:56:36	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xd73f4b…
05-09 23:21:04	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x38a9db…
05-09 23:17:27	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x3547dc…
05-09 23:16:35	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x3927d3…
05-09 22:09:11	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x328e17…
05-09 21:04:22	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0xe78973…
05-09 19:44:39	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9d5b2b…
05-07 08:55:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,990	0x427066…
05-07 07:32:17	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2a7be7…
05-07 07:10:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0e8284…
05-07 04:52:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	54	98¢	$52	0xd7ed61…
05-07 04:51:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1c705b…
05-07 04:49:24	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x183c89…
05-07 04:43:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	126	98¢	$123	0xde3d77…
05-06 04:04:42	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x28d1c3…
05-06 02:55:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	274	100¢	$274	0xb0f02f…
05-06 02:52:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x8728a1…
05-06 02:49:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x5d6a48…
05-06 02:48:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xc2d405…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x9474…5091	150	$6.81K	5,340	05-29 18:15
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	137	$548.4K	9,683	06-08 12:00
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	134	$8.72K	2,280	06-09 16:45
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	128	$124.4K	1,317	06-08 20:17
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	119	$148.5K	11,883	06-01 04:50
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	115	$59.8K	6,127	03-28 23:37
Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa	110	$18.1K	7,675	06-09 10:42
Real-Veteran 0xe8dd…ec86	109	$4.10M	24,696	04-28 10:31