Taut-Dogwood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10.4K

Unrealized P&L

+$102

Hit rate

94.8%

Resolved

292

Trades

10,492

lifetime

Volume

$999.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$95

Open exposure

$16.2K

11 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 07:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 78 days

Categories

Other

91% 90% +$9,853

Politics

9% 95% +$544

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+10,823	$10,305	96¢	$10.4K	+$79	10-27 01:20
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	+1,613	$1,575	97¢	$1.6K	-$5	10-26 22:16
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+1,593	$1,560	98¢	$1.6K	+$4	10-26 22:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+785	$706	94¢	$738	+$31	10-27 05:12
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+703	$679	98¢	$688	+$9	10-26 13:28
another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	+800	$641	76¢	$612	-$29	10-22 15:12
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	+475	$458	97¢	$463	+$6	10-20 04:52
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	+74	$72	98¢	$73	+$0	10-26 14:58
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+72	$70	97¢	$70	+$0	10-23 06:00
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	+38	$34	98¢	$37	+$3	10-15 06:41
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	+30	$26	98¢	$29	+$3	06-17 11:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	171	$60.2K	51,342	10,902	+40,440	Yes	+$1,625	01-28 05:27
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	122	$41.8K	16,309	26,228	-9,919	No	+$8	02-18 19:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	19	$39.9K	39,650	400	+39,250	No	+$56	05-07 08:55
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	304	$33.9K	22,923	12,100	+10,823	open	—	10-27 01:20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	147	$32.3K	28,386	4,298	+24,088	Yes	+$344	04-27 22:16
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	207	$31.2K	25,990	7,146	+18,845	Yes	+$685	03-18 14:30
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	189	$29.7K	18,912	11,007	+7,905	No	+$108	03-01 01:22
will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	98	$28.9K	29,160	0	+29,160	Yes	+$219	02-04 00:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	103	$28.1K	16,559	14,359	+2,200	Yes	-$324	07-29 18:00
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	232	$27.6K	27,882	0	+27,882	No	+$326	10-23 08:55
Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the September meeting?	44	$19.5K	19,621	0	+19,621	Yes	+$78	09-24 06:30
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	209	$15.9K	16,211	0	+16,211	Yes	+$273	07-23 02:38
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	170	$15.0K	13,396	2,178	+11,218	No	+$455	06-17 01:15
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?	132	$13.9K	13,975	0	+13,975	Yes	+$75	09-02 13:26
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	127	$13.8K	14,163	0	+14,163	No	+$393	06-17 13:24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	145	$12.1K	11,220	1,200	+10,020	Yes	+$348	06-07 04:10
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	248	$11.4K	11,676	0	+11,676	Yes	+$323	06-02 15:38
negative gdp growth in 2025	46	$11.2K	11,243	0	+11,243	No	+$29	02-20 12:35
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$11.0K	11,000	0	+11,000	No	+$12	09-16 07:23
will danielle martin win the by election for the seat of universityrosedale in the house of commons of canada	136	$10.8K	10,833	0	+10,833	Yes	+$26	04-14 00:44
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	11	$10.8K	10,836	0	+10,836	No	+$33	06-25 21:51
will the fed cutpausepause in the next three decisions decjanmar	197	$10.2K	6,845	3,573	+3,272	Yes	+$164	03-15 05:26
will the bank of canada announce no change at the march meeting	257	$9.9K	10,264	0	+10,264	Yes	+$317	03-14 17:02
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	51	$9.2K	8,557	760	+7,797	No	+$72	07-27 16:52
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	75	$8.8K	8,861	0	+8,861	Yes	+$32	10-20 00:28
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?	155	$8.6K	7,620	1,121	+6,499	Yes	+$91	04-29 12:02
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?	221	$8.0K	7,968	209	+7,759	Yes	+$164	06-10 04:03
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	28	$8.0K	8,050	0	+8,050	No	+$54	09-10 11:11
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	7	$7.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$21	02-05 17:51
will crude oil cl hit low 50 by end of march 969 293 176 621 832 316 288 934 812 659 162	35	$7.5K	7,452	50	+7,402	No	+$46	03-23 16:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 07:34:12	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x1f1e94…
10-27 07:34:11	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x2d3ea5…
10-27 07:34:11	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x13c966…
10-27 07:34:11	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0581fc…
10-27 06:12:35	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x0a34b1…
10-27 06:12:24	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xdfc680…
10-27 05:40:05	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xfedadc…
10-27 05:36:41	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xfb2c58…
10-27 05:21:24	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xec76a2…
10-27 05:12:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$187	0x1dd388…
10-27 02:11:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0xd839f5…
10-27 01:20:06	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	96¢	$91	0x027da8…
10-27 00:58:54	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x1e4c1d…
10-27 00:15:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x354f0a…
10-26 23:57:57	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x288cd8…
10-26 23:13:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x839a59…
10-26 23:00:03	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x108b11…
10-26 22:57:44	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xe65537…
10-26 22:57:27	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	96¢	$52	0x55e30a…
10-26 22:52:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	93¢	$6	0x51681f…
10-26 22:49:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	193	93¢	$180	0xa1638d…
10-26 22:42:38	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	96¢	$42	0x5cbc86…
10-26 22:35:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	185	93¢	$172	0x08b081…
10-26 22:27:36	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x911171…
10-26 22:16:33	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x12fac4…
10-26 22:14:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,200	94¢	$2,068	0x23c304…
10-26 22:09:17	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	96¢	$36	0xaa4cfd…
10-26 21:53:39	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	96¢	$60	0xc0dbd9…
10-26 21:15:41	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	58	96¢	$55	0xc98b45…
10-26 21:15:15	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0xee74bc…
10-26 21:15:03	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$14	0x5c4be7…
10-26 21:04:05	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x6e6893…
10-26 19:37:54	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x54d533…
10-26 19:21:33	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x3eb067…
10-26 19:21:29	Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	No	BUY	54	99¢	$54	0x8d8a79…
10-26 19:04:39	Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x10f3c4…
10-26 18:25:29	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	56	97¢	$54	0xb38091…
10-26 16:44:56	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xda75d0…
10-26 16:43:05	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	45	95¢	$43	0xc9d387…
10-26 16:24:00	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x4a2bf4…
10-26 16:22:23	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x6f8e26…
10-26 16:22:09	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0xd072ea…
10-26 14:59:35	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0x24ac59…
10-26 14:59:24	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	53	97¢	$52	0x1d1ebb…
10-26 14:59:15	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$20	0x965ada…
10-26 14:59:08	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0x4a73c0…
10-26 14:59:00	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	83	98¢	$81	0x62526c…
10-26 14:58:53	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0x2a8f9c…
10-26 14:58:36	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	83	98¢	$81	0xbd64a9…
10-26 14:58:27	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x18285c…
10-26 14:58:26	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	74	98¢	$72	0x7c83f8…
10-26 14:58:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$185	0x9d2fe9…
10-26 14:58:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	186	93¢	$172	0x3dc82d…
10-26 14:58:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	164	93¢	$152	0x2e2114…
10-26 14:56:14	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4235e8…
10-26 14:55:51	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x59bd4d…
10-26 14:48:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x6f6b82…
10-26 14:40:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xf1520f…
10-26 14:40:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x220e34…
10-26 14:39:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	199	94¢	$187	0x3e9c11…
10-26 14:36:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	194	94¢	$183	0xd68f68…
10-26 14:36:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x34d17b…
10-26 13:49:38	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	91	98¢	$89	0x36eb3c…
10-26 13:28:56	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x5144bf…
10-26 13:07:06	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$4	0x400428…
10-26 10:54:50	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x9bebf1…
10-26 10:54:50	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$8	0x78a8f8…
10-26 10:18:42	Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcbca19…
10-26 09:55:03	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0xda8686…
10-26 09:44:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0xc31a28…
10-26 09:40:02	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x621a30…
10-26 08:50:02	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x248592…
10-26 08:11:27	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0xf18f4d…
10-26 08:11:08	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	96¢	$92	0x51d275…
10-26 06:33:03	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0x958643…
10-26 05:55:17	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x5bda55…
10-26 05:20:33	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe4632d…
10-26 05:20:30	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x9bc152…
10-26 05:20:30	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x8084fd…
10-26 05:02:41	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x8d220d…
10-26 04:56:17	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x13547b…
10-26 03:50:47	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	96¢	$82	0x66c471…
10-26 03:40:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xe62438…
10-26 02:55:24	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x67960d…
10-26 02:26:54	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	96	98¢	$94	0x7bc3d1…
10-26 02:25:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xd26606…
10-26 02:13:05	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0x3ce761…
10-26 01:38:50	Will USD/CAD hit 1.70 (High) in 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x0047e6…
10-26 00:47:26	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xa9daeb…
10-26 00:25:18	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	96¢	$7	0x41b040…
10-26 00:20:48	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xc0f8f1…
10-26 00:15:32	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x44a206…
10-26 00:14:09	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x65b6bb…
10-26 00:08:50	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x903c18…
10-25 23:53:36	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x67da63…
10-25 22:50:06	Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc526e4…
10-25 22:50:06	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7d5d62…
10-25 22:15:41	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0xc719f9…
10-25 22:07:41	Will the Central Bank of Chile make no change to the monetary policy rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	66	98¢	$64	0xb5366c…
10-25 22:02:17	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	57	98¢	$56	0xf6f004…