Taut-Dogwood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$83

Unrealized P&L

-$15

Hit rate

81.5%

Resolved

Trades

5,750

lifetime

Volume

$584.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$102

Open exposure

$369

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-25 21:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

88% 50% $-83

Politics

12% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	-200	$-203	100¢	$-199	+$4	06-18 07:16
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	-173	$-131	87¢	$-151	$-21	06-21 21:16
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	+20	$17	94¢	$19	+$1	06-17 11:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	171	$60.2K	51,342	10,902	+40,440	open	—	01-28 05:27
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	122	$41.8K	16,309	26,228	-9,919	open	—	02-18 19:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	19	$39.9K	39,650	400	+39,250	open	—	05-07 08:55
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	147	$32.3K	28,386	4,298	+24,088	open	—	04-27 22:16
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	207	$31.2K	25,990	7,146	+18,845	open	—	03-18 14:30
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	189	$29.7K	18,912	11,007	+7,905	open	—	03-01 01:22
will the ecb announce no change at the february 2026 meeting	98	$28.9K	29,160	0	+29,160	open	—	02-04 00:34
negative gdp growth in 2025	46	$11.2K	11,243	0	+11,243	open	—	02-20 12:35
will danielle martin win the by election for the seat of universityrosedale in the house of commons of canada	136	$10.8K	10,833	0	+10,833	open	—	04-14 00:44
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	8	$10.8K	10,826	0	+10,826	open	—	06-25 21:51
will the fed cutpausepause in the next three decisions decjanmar	197	$10.2K	6,845	3,573	+3,272	open	—	03-15 05:26
will the bank of canada announce no change at the march meeting	257	$9.9K	10,264	0	+10,264	open	—	03-14 17:02
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	7	$7.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	02-05 17:51
will crude oil cl hit low 50 by end of march 969 293 176 621 832 316 288 934 812 659 162	35	$7.5K	7,452	50	+7,402	open	—	03-23 16:04
will the bank of korea make no change to the base rate after the april meeting	39	$7.2K	6,087	1,180	+4,907	open	—	04-10 05:04
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?	136	$6.9K	5,894	1,121	+4,772	open	—	04-28 04:16
fed rate cut by march 2026 meeting	121	$6.2K	5,425	939	+4,486	open	—	03-17 21:52
no change in bank of englands interest rates after february 2026 meeting	47	$6.1K	5,855	300	+5,555	open	—	02-05 07:54
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	25	$6.0K	4,821	1,180	+3,640	open	—	06-17 01:15
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?	40	$5.3K	5,394	0	+5,394	open	—	04-14 03:05
will the ecb announce an increase at the march 2026 meeting	9	$5.2K	5,208	0	+5,208	open	—	03-19 12:01
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	38	$5.1K	3,877	1,345	+2,532	open	—	05-19 23:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	21	$5.1K	4,894	280	+4,614	open	—	04-30 20:00
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	24	$5.1K	5,158	0	+5,158	open	—	06-17 13:24
will the bank of korea increase the base rate after the april meeting	2	$5.0K	5,051	0	+5,051	open	—	04-10 05:29
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	48	$4.7K	3,601	1,479	+2,122	open	—	02-28 18:39
no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	154	$4.7K	3,015	2,252	+763	open	—	03-18 22:50
will crude oil cl hit low 45 by end of march 524 288 596 421 318 497 667 674 276 275	30	$4.5K	4,555	0	+4,555	open	—	03-23 15:15
will the bank of canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the march meeting	97	$4.5K	491	4,045	-3,555	open	—	03-18 16:55
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	71	$4.4K	2,736	1,785	+951	open	—	03-26 04:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 21:51:19	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1,507	100¢	$1,504	0x9205a2…
06-21 21:16:07	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xf51628…
06-21 21:04:13	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0xda24d2…
06-21 21:03:31	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0xd7d31c…
06-21 21:03:28	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0xe6ba8f…
06-21 21:03:26	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x914389…
06-21 21:03:25	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0xaaee31…
06-21 15:06:32	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	259	80¢	$208	0xc05b64…
06-21 14:56:08	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x5ae972…
06-20 03:37:08	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	8,170	100¢	$8,146	0x7df010…
06-18 20:33:56	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	451	100¢	$449	0xf0ea06…
06-18 18:39:29	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe2bee0…
06-18 18:06:32	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x714afb…
06-18 17:58:53	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x3f5ced…
06-18 07:16:04	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xc2caf1…
06-18 02:46:59	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	149	100¢	$148	0x88eafc…
06-17 13:24:53	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x847433…
06-17 11:41:25	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x74ced7…
06-17 06:06:31	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x7b89b8…
06-17 02:52:03	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$995	0x94b3a9…
06-17 01:56:23	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$996	0x3b00b2…
06-17 01:15:16	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,992	100¢	$1,982	0xa0cc12…
06-17 01:12:49	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	925	100¢	$920	0xfc0860…
06-17 00:06:23	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,404	100¢	$1,397	0x8075c4…
06-17 00:06:01	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xbe47f7…
06-16 22:01:59	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xec54ac…
06-12 16:36:24	Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1,473	99¢	$1,459	0xd5afb8…
06-12 00:20:40	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	672	100¢	$670	0x6f37d5…
06-11 17:50:16	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x46b71d…
06-11 17:19:13	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf72baa…
06-11 16:26:04	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x88f6a3…
06-08 20:11:31	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	477	97¢	$463	0x2f2e9c…
06-08 20:11:09	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0x7ec282…
06-08 13:37:55	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x6f4df3…
06-08 06:05:49	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	250	99¢	$248	0xc2f230…
06-07 21:39:04	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	154	99¢	$153	0xa8855a…
06-07 21:11:33	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0b6816…
06-07 20:59:01	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb86c6f…
06-07 20:20:55	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xf114a4…
06-07 19:23:45	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x70faf8…
06-07 18:02:45	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x241b5d…
06-07 16:54:52	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x7dc6b2…
06-07 16:11:45	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x44fb3c…
06-07 15:01:55	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xb4bef8…
06-07 15:01:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xebfa18…
06-07 15:01:03	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5ed05d…
06-07 14:57:48	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x549660…
06-07 12:32:58	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xda788e…
06-07 07:26:37	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xd6e395…
06-07 07:18:07	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x36bd49…
06-07 06:09:37	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0xde0a53…
06-07 05:41:43	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8c77b7…
06-07 04:59:45	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0xc1135f…
06-04 12:58:45	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x70a960…
06-04 02:22:09	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xadb1c3…
06-02 16:15:18	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x8d8783…
06-02 15:03:19	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xa26211…
06-02 10:46:36	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$27	0x720ae4…
06-02 10:46:27	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	70	92¢	$65	0x031b91…
06-02 08:39:31	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xe355f8…
06-02 00:04:40	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x7adff4…
06-02 00:03:37	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	63	94¢	$59	0xe9d505…
06-02 00:03:16	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x691569…
06-01 04:49:57	Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	63	98¢	$62	0xf0e38c…
05-31 13:48:55	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x8bf55c…
05-31 11:21:09	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x272074…
05-31 08:11:41	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$41	0xffeff6…
05-31 01:07:27	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xdc640c…
05-30 19:49:41	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	43	98¢	$43	0xe07e00…
05-29 14:20:09	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	61¢	$11	0x8714f4…
05-29 13:57:20	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x867ec8…
05-29 13:56:12	Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xf5c820…
05-28 12:56:58	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7a6860…
05-20 16:14:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	SELL	760	100¢	$758	0x47164c…
05-20 15:37:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x3d1c9e…
05-20 11:51:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x5bc067…
05-20 10:43:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	SELL	748	100¢	$745	0x0b5f33…
05-20 10:35:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xcd5ba5…
05-20 10:34:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xe2f2d2…
05-20 10:32:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xd9efd5…
05-20 10:28:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x40144d…
05-20 10:25:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xcffce0…
05-20 10:17:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x9959fe…
05-20 09:57:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x65810b…
05-19 23:04:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x7238e9…
05-19 22:40:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xe3f7ec…
05-19 22:39:11	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x9582a6…
05-19 22:37:56	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	59	98¢	$59	0x0d41bd…
05-19 22:36:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x08fb09…
05-18 17:55:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xc1f91b…
05-18 17:24:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x7b07ed…
05-18 15:20:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x93de09…
05-18 04:25:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0xe22b8e…
05-18 04:25:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x9bfd3a…
05-18 04:06:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$61	0xf312aa…
05-18 04:03:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xcbf80f…
05-18 00:53:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0xd175e3…
05-17 20:20:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0xd52dcd…
05-17 20:02:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	147	99¢	$145	0xe98d4d…
05-16 09:32:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	191	100¢	$190	0xf1eb53…