Trivial-Cobweb — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

+$32

Hit rate

97.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$697

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$27

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 06-18 19:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

69% 50% $-1

Tech

12% — —

Crypto

10% — —

Politics

5% — —

Sports

3% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	-60	$-41	20¢	$-12	+$30	05-28 01:29
Anthropic acquired before 2027?	No	+10	$9	97¢	$10	+$0	06-09 13:32
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	-130	$-7	4¢	$-5	+$2	06-02 11:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed cutpausecut in the next three decisions decjanmar	2	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	03-17 18:42
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$78	78	0	+78	open	—	03-17 14:26
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$1	04-08 00:37
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$45	45	0	+45	open	—	01-09 15:03
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$41	0	60	-60	open	—	05-28 01:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$39	40	0	+40	open	—	04-08 00:33
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$39	40	0	+40	open	—	01-09 14:58
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$35	35	0	+35	open	—	04-08 00:36
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$31	33	0	+33	open	—	02-20 02:47
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	1	$31	31	0	+31	open	—	06-08 12:40
moltbook shutdown by feb 28	1	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	02-20 02:51
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	02-20 02:51
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	1	$25	25	0	+25	open	—	06-08 12:41
Anthropic CEO arrested?	2	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	06-08 13:59
north korea missile launch by january 31 661	2	$18	30	0	+30	open	—	01-09 15:06
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	1	$18	38	0	+38	open	—	04-08 00:34
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	1	$17	21	0	+21	No	+$4	03-17 14:27
Anthropic acquired before 2027?	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	06-09 13:32
will hyperliquid reach 48 in march	1	$9	34	0	+34	open	—	03-17 14:20
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	1	$7	0	130	-130	open	—	06-02 11:32
ice shooter charged by march 31	1	$6	30	0	+30	open	—	01-09 19:01
the ring high stakes ryan garcia vs mario barrios	2	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	02-21 22:25
ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	3	$3	10	0	+10	open	—	01-09 17:07
ufc sea2 ant 2026 02 21	1	$3	10	0	+10	open	—	02-20 02:46
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$3	50	0	+50	open	—	03-17 15:46
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$2	70	0	+70	open	—	02-20 02:54
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	1	$2	111	0	+111	open	—	05-22 03:14
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$2	848	0	+848	No	$-2	03-17 14:27
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	1	$1	115	0	+115	open	—	03-17 14:21
will clavicular be irans next supreme leader by march 31st	1	$1	625	0	+625	open	—	03-17 14:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 19:40:38	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x6a4b76…
06-18 17:02:34	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	222	0¢	$0	0x509c43…
06-18 07:36:53	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$0	0x309aba…
06-18 03:21:49	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0x8b4b15…
06-11 06:54:21	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	37	0¢	$0	0xbf4bac…
06-10 06:57:51	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xefb432…
06-10 06:50:49	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0x20432a…
06-09 13:32:58	Anthropic acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x219792…
06-08 13:59:48	Anthropic CEO arrested?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4330ab…
06-08 12:53:22	Anthropic CEO arrested?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x24abf1…
06-08 12:41:24	Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa3214d…
06-08 12:40:13	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x416ddd…
06-02 11:32:02	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	130	6¢	$7	0xb1d0aa…
05-28 01:29:15	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	60	69¢	$41	0x549921…
05-22 03:14:29	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	Yes	BUY	111	2¢	$2	0x6e6293…
04-08 00:37:43	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xd614d5…
04-08 00:36:21	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xa6f7db…
04-08 00:34:15	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	38	47¢	$18	0x7eb6ff…
04-08 00:33:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xeb68bb…
03-17 18:42:03	will the fed cutpausecut in the next three decisions decjanmar	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x2cb360…
03-17 15:48:09	will the fed cutpausecut in the next three decisions decjanmar	No	BUY	67	100¢	$66	0x243881…
03-17 15:46:19	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x36702d…
03-17 14:28:05	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x1b545d…
03-17 14:27:53	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	848	0¢	$2	0x1a0294…
03-17 14:27:01	Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	BUY	21	82¢	$17	0x6f56f7…
03-17 14:26:19	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	78	99¢	$78	0x1ecbed…
03-17 14:21:33	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	No	BUY	115	1¢	$1	0x007e1e…
03-17 14:20:57	will hyperliquid reach 48 in march	Yes	BUY	34	25¢	$9	0x9f9c95…
03-17 14:17:47	will clavicular be irans next supreme leader by march 31st	Yes	BUY	625	0¢	$1	0xc5a266…
02-21 22:25:22	the ring high stakes ryan garcia vs mario barrios	Garcia	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x73c70e…
02-20 02:54:28	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	22	3¢	$1	0xf2ae84…
02-20 02:53:16	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	48	3¢	$2	0x72923d…
02-20 02:51:26	moltbook shutdown by feb 28	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x8e0e48…
02-20 02:51:04	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xba6896…
02-20 02:47:38	the ring high stakes ryan garcia vs mario barrios	Garcia	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x2c60c3…
02-20 02:47:30	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0x13031d…
02-20 02:46:58	ufc sea2 ant 2026 02 21	Strickland	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x674777…
01-11 18:13:56	will larry page be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	146	0¢	$0	0xa4e3de…
01-11 13:34:40	will larry page be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	52	0¢	$0	0x380e96…
01-11 12:21:38	will larry page be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0xacfab7…
01-11 03:30:56	will larry page be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x87517b…
01-09 19:01:44	ice shooter charged by march 31	Yes	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0xad80f8…
01-09 17:07:44	will larry page be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	48	0¢	$0	0x7c34ab…
01-09 17:07:38	ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	Gaethje	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x9eb817…
01-09 16:59:00	ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	Gaethje	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x93cadb…
01-09 15:36:28	ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	Gaethje	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xa5569c…
01-09 15:06:10	north korea missile launch by january 31 661	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x79185e…
01-09 15:06:04	north korea missile launch by january 31 661	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xf3154d…
01-09 15:03:58	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xc16070…
01-09 15:00:06	will larry page be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	183	0¢	$0	0x00e4f6…
01-09 14:58:36	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xbfef70…