Trivial-Cobweb — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$38

Unrealized P&L

+$48

Hit rate

90.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$888

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$84

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 06-18 19:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Other

68% 52% -$38

Tech

15% 100% +$4

Crypto

10% 0% -$20

Politics

4% 50% $0

Sports

3% 100% +$17

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-18).

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	-30	-$25	97¢	$-29	-$5	05-22 05:10
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+30	$18	92¢	$28	+$9	05-22 11:49
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+17	$17	100¢	$17	+$0	05-22 03:11
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?	Yes	+147	$2	2¢	$3	+$1	05-22 03:20
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	-130	-$7	2¢	$-3	+$4	06-02 11:32
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	-60	-$41	4¢	$-2	+$39	05-28 01:29
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027?	Yes	+90	$1	1¢	$1	$0	05-22 03:19
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	Yes	+40	$2	2¢	$1	-$1	05-25 08:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed cutpausecut in the next three decisions decjanmar	2	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	03-17 18:42
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$78	78	0	+78	Yes	+$0	03-17 14:26
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$1	04-08 00:37
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	01-09 15:03
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$41	0	60	-60	open	—	05-28 01:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$39	40	0	+40	Yes	+$1	04-08 00:33
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$39	40	0	+40	Yes	+$1	01-09 14:58
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	04-08 00:36
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$34	37	0	+37	Yes	+$3	06-08 13:16
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$31	33	0	+33	Yes	+$2	02-20 02:47
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	1	$31	31	0	+31	Yes	+$0	06-08 12:41
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	1	$31	31	0	+31	Yes	+$0	06-08 12:40
moltbook shutdown by feb 28	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	02-20 02:51
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	1	$27	27	0	+27	Yes	+$0	02-20 02:51
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	06-08 12:41
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	1	$25	0	30	-30	open	—	05-22 05:10
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$24	26	0	+26	Yes	+$2	05-22 03:16
Anthropic CEO arrested?	2	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-08 13:59
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	1	$18	30	0	+30	open	—	05-22 11:49
north korea missile launch by january 31 661	2	$18	30	0	+30	Yes	-$18	01-09 15:06
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	1	$18	38	0	+38	Yes	-$18	04-08 00:34
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	1	$17	21	0	+21	No	+$4	03-17 14:27
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$17	17	0	+17	open	—	05-22 03:11
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	05-22 03:18
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	3	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	05-24 02:00
Anthropic acquired before 2027?	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	06-09 13:32
will hyperliquid reach 48 in march	1	$9	34	0	+34	No	-$9	03-17 14:20
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	1	$7	0	130	-130	open	—	06-02 11:32
ice shooter charged by march 31	1	$6	30	0	+30	No	-$6	01-09 19:01
the ring high stakes ryan garcia vs mario barrios	2	$5	8	0	+8	Garcia	+$3	02-21 22:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 19:40:38	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x6a4b76…
06-18 17:02:34	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	222	0¢	$0	0x509c43…
06-18 07:36:53	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$0	0x309aba…
06-18 03:21:49	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0x8b4b15…
06-11 06:54:21	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	37	0¢	$0	0xbf4bac…
06-10 06:57:51	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xefb432…
06-10 06:50:49	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0x20432a…
06-09 13:32:58	Anthropic acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x219792…
06-08 18:15:40	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0xe3e5bc…
06-08 17:34:13	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xa1c7dd…
06-08 15:10:00	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x051f7a…
06-08 13:59:48	Anthropic CEO arrested?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4330ab…
06-08 13:18:16	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xcf3639…
06-08 13:16:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x59638e…
06-08 12:53:22	Anthropic CEO arrested?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x24abf1…
06-08 12:41:24	Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa3214d…
06-08 12:41:06	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x5d7975…
06-08 12:40:45	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	17	92¢	$16	0xb20d3e…
06-08 12:40:13	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x416ddd…
06-02 11:32:02	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	130	6¢	$7	0xb1d0aa…
05-28 01:29:15	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	60	69¢	$41	0x549921…
05-25 08:02:39	Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x71c518…
05-24 02:00:19	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x19c513…
05-23 13:07:37	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1e1253…
05-22 11:49:45	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0xd511bb…
05-22 05:10:03	US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	SELL	30	82¢	$25	0x139e7e…
05-22 03:20:00	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	147	2¢	$2	0x929538…
05-22 03:19:39	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0x55b756…
05-22 03:18:19	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x73f385…
05-22 03:17:37	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf97e55…
05-22 03:16:58	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	No	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0xabce17…
05-22 03:16:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	26	93¢	$24	0xc416a0…
05-22 03:15:29	Will CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0x535731…
05-22 03:14:29	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	Yes	BUY	111	2¢	$2	0x6e6293…
05-22 03:11:05	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x33e284…
04-08 00:37:43	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xd614d5…
04-08 00:36:21	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xa6f7db…
04-08 00:34:15	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	38	47¢	$18	0x7eb6ff…
04-08 00:33:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xeb68bb…
03-17 18:42:03	will the fed cutpausecut in the next three decisions decjanmar	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x2cb360…
03-17 15:48:09	will the fed cutpausecut in the next three decisions decjanmar	No	BUY	67	100¢	$66	0x243881…
03-17 15:46:19	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x36702d…
03-17 14:28:05	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x1b545d…
03-17 14:27:53	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	848	0¢	$2	0x1a0294…
03-17 14:27:01	Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	BUY	21	82¢	$17	0x6f56f7…
03-17 14:26:19	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	78	99¢	$78	0x1ecbed…
03-17 14:21:33	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	No	BUY	115	1¢	$1	0x007e1e…
03-17 14:20:57	will hyperliquid reach 48 in march	Yes	BUY	34	25¢	$9	0x9f9c95…
03-17 14:17:47	will clavicular be irans next supreme leader by march 31st	Yes	BUY	625	0¢	$1	0xc5a266…
02-21 22:25:22	the ring high stakes ryan garcia vs mario barrios	Garcia	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x73c70e…
02-20 02:54:28	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	22	3¢	$1	0xf2ae84…
02-20 02:53:16	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	48	3¢	$2	0x72923d…
02-20 02:51:26	moltbook shutdown by feb 28	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x8e0e48…
02-20 02:51:04	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xba6896…
02-20 02:47:38	the ring high stakes ryan garcia vs mario barrios	Garcia	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x2c60c3…
02-20 02:47:30	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0x13031d…
02-20 02:46:58	ufc sea2 ant 2026 02 21	Strickland	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x674777…
01-11 18:13:56	will larry page be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	146	0¢	$0	0xa4e3de…
01-11 13:34:40	will larry page be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	52	0¢	$0	0x380e96…
01-11 12:21:38	will larry page be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0xacfab7…
01-11 03:30:56	will larry page be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x87517b…
01-09 19:01:44	ice shooter charged by march 31	Yes	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0xad80f8…
01-09 17:07:44	will larry page be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	48	0¢	$0	0x7c34ab…
01-09 17:07:38	ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	Gaethje	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x9eb817…
01-09 16:59:00	ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	Gaethje	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x93cadb…
01-09 15:36:28	ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	Gaethje	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xa5569c…
01-09 15:06:10	north korea missile launch by january 31 661	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x79185e…
01-09 15:06:04	north korea missile launch by january 31 661	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xf3154d…
01-09 15:03:58	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xc16070…
01-09 15:00:06	will larry page be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	183	0¢	$0	0x00e4f6…
01-09 14:58:36	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xbfef70…