Triangular-Tulip — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$49.3K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

9.9%

Resolved

Trades

561

lifetime

Volume

$494.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$881

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 06-02 09:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

64% 25% $-49,299

Other

36% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 87 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	52	$74.5K	73,079	20,000	+53,079	open	—	05-04 06:48
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	36	$64.9K	79,144	0	+79,144	open	—	04-20 11:23
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	56	$35.6K	38,852	38,852	+0	Yes	$-35,478	05-09 05:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	6	$34.5K	40,331	0	+40,331	open	—	04-24 07:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	76	$27.0K	27,372	27,372	+0	open	—	04-18 12:02
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	76	$22.9K	12,932	12,932	+0	open	—	04-12 21:05
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	13	$20.3K	14,138	14,138	+0	open	—	04-21 19:59
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	32	$20.3K	23,095	0	+23,095	open	—	05-01 16:21
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	17	$20.0K	10,078	10,078	+0	open	—	04-21 18:57
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	4	$15.2K	11,600	4,000	+7,600	open	—	04-21 20:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	19	$13.9K	17,647	17,647	+0	Yes	$-13,855	05-09 05:54
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	42	$12.5K	11,574	11,574	+0	open	—	04-17 13:51
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$11.0K	12,331	0	+12,331	open	—	05-01 11:32
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	3	$10.8K	17,199	0	+17,199	open	—	04-21 20:12
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	2	$10.1K	11,906	0	+11,906	open	—	04-22 04:41
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	11	$9.7K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	05-01 11:23
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	15	$9.1K	10,008	0	+10,008	open	—	04-21 18:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	12	$9.1K	7,323	7,323	+0	open	—	04-29 16:21
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	4	$8.8K	9,269	0	+9,269	open	—	04-21 14:22
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$5.7K	6,070	0	+6,070	No	+$345	05-08 12:12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	5	$5.2K	5,368	0	+5,368	open	—	04-18 15:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	1	$5.0K	5,278	0	+5,278	open	—	04-23 21:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	6	$4.6K	5,342	0	+5,342	open	—	04-28 08:29
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	4	$4.6K	5,393	0	+5,393	open	—	05-04 06:50
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	1	$4.6K	6,554	0	+6,554	open	—	04-21 20:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	2	$4.0K	4,766	0	+4,766	open	—	04-21 18:59
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$3.8K	3,870	0	+3,870	open	—	04-16 15:41
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	10	$3.1K	2,624	2,624	+0	open	—	04-21 22:16
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	13	$2.7K	1,925	1,925	+0	No	$-312	05-04 16:21
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?	1	$2.5K	2,605	0	+2,605	open	—	04-19 08:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 09:39:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,111	1¢	$10	0x6555af…
05-09 10:10:11	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	No	BUY	399	78¢	$313	0x5f5e0e…
05-09 10:08:51	Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31?	No	BUY	92	79¢	$73	0x82ea20…
05-09 05:57:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27,595	0¢	$28	0x254e92…
05-09 05:57:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	127	0¢	$0	0xe372c3…
05-09 05:55:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	42	0¢	$0	0xc4b1c8…
05-09 05:54:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,899	0¢	$4	0x4c3fc4…
05-09 05:54:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	69	0¢	$0	0xe37bd8…
05-09 05:54:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4,001	0¢	$4	0xec1ca8…
05-09 05:53:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,530	0¢	$2	0xa199ab…
05-09 05:51:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf3d1b4…
05-09 05:51:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	217	0¢	$0	0x35d1af…
05-09 05:51:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0b9492…
05-09 05:49:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xeeb666…
05-09 05:49:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9,990	0¢	$10	0xa9b804…
05-09 05:49:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,861	0¢	$2	0x5aeab8…
05-09 05:48:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	38	0¢	$0	0xe30be7…
05-09 05:46:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x225d9f…
05-09 05:45:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0xecf5bd…
05-09 05:45:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x9ae200…
05-09 05:45:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x4969d0…
05-09 05:45:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x08566e…
05-09 05:45:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	26	0¢	$0	0xfed48c…
05-09 05:45:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0xf58759…
05-09 05:45:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	79	0¢	$0	0xec2f1a…
05-09 05:45:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xdb48c7…
05-09 05:45:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xda435a…
05-09 05:45:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0xbd6907…
05-09 05:45:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x931bb7…
05-09 05:45:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x7fb874…
05-09 05:45:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	29	0¢	$0	0x1ba0b0…
05-09 05:45:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4,694	0¢	$5	0x94ffb3…
05-08 18:09:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	326	69¢	$225	0x0e1135…
05-08 18:09:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0x215d12…
05-08 18:09:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8,214	70¢	$5,750	0x178192…
05-08 18:09:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0xf0660c…
05-08 18:09:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	70¢	$700	0xa78ed7…
05-08 18:09:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	230	70¢	$161	0x356ddd…
05-08 18:09:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,667	70¢	$1,167	0xf118f4…
05-08 18:09:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xc38274…
05-08 18:09:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xa307db…
05-08 18:08:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0xc755c5…
05-08 12:12:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x26bf8e…
05-06 05:31:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,597	95¢	$2,465	0x148035…
05-06 00:36:20	Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?	No	BUY	120	90¢	$108	0x523716…
05-06 00:36:02	Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x769860…
05-05 13:19:56	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?	No	BUY	1,201	90¢	$1,080	0x744ab1…
05-04 16:21:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	1,545	58¢	$894	0x431d31…
05-04 16:21:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	1,627	34¢	$550	0x87a617…
05-04 14:55:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x8f8b76…
05-04 14:48:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	19	79¢	$15	0x2bafa1…
05-04 14:47:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0xf198ee…
05-04 14:47:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	346	79¢	$274	0x8ae44a…
05-04 13:31:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	725	77¢	$558	0xef8203…
05-04 12:28:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,508	95¢	$3,333	0x086660…
05-04 12:03:30	Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?	No	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0x36547b…
05-04 11:36:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	976	79¢	$771	0xe5d8a6…
05-04 11:36:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0x895933…
05-04 11:36:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0x03cfc7…
05-04 11:34:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x6174c1…
05-04 11:34:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xc2d32c…
05-04 11:33:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xf4479c…
05-04 11:33:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	209	79¢	$165	0xae0b61…
05-04 06:51:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	6,045	94¢	$5,700	0x01a1c4…
05-04 06:50:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	4,663	86¢	$4,010	0x354140…
05-04 06:49:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x98d922…
05-04 06:48:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	2,612	91¢	$2,377	0xc2ab40…
05-04 06:46:58	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x166ca4…
05-04 06:46:28	Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31?	No	BUY	835	90¢	$750	0xf7e907…
05-04 06:44:52	Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?	No	BUY	360	84¢	$302	0xbe63cd…
05-04 06:44:44	Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xb89cf8…
05-04 06:40:32	Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?	No	BUY	369	87¢	$320	0xabd91b…
05-04 06:40:16	Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31?	No	BUY	506	87¢	$440	0x6f78d2…
05-04 06:39:54	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	No	BUY	896	77¢	$690	0x3da5de…
05-04 06:39:30	Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x7b80b9…
05-04 06:35:50	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	467	73¢	$340	0x14c9e7…
05-04 06:34:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x1fee0c…
05-04 06:23:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	629	86¢	$541	0x3d7e10…
05-02 16:44:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,905	91¢	$4,464	0xf6bc79…
05-01 16:21:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	2,724	90¢	$2,452	0xffb080…
05-01 11:32:24	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	5,435	92¢	$5,000	0xcbb941…
05-01 11:23:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	2,866	98¢	$2,808	0xe26e6f…
05-01 10:46:08	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	5,000	89¢	$4,450	0xd7f7cc…
04-30 10:16:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	33	97¢	$32	0x8f4221…
04-30 06:55:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	98	98¢	$95	0xa96874…
04-29 17:44:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,347	91¢	$1,223	0x631d4a…
04-29 16:21:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	4,210	29¢	$1,223	0x579bd7…
04-29 14:17:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	2,004	97¢	$1,954	0xa92155…
04-29 09:41:36	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	6,897	87¢	$6,000	0xb1bd67…
04-28 08:29:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0x3a6243…
04-28 08:08:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	38	87¢	$33	0xe0ee62…
04-28 08:08:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x989572…
04-28 08:06:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	3,371	89¢	$3,000	0x51f44c…
04-28 08:03:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$0	0x900d03…
04-28 08:03:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	13	87¢	$12	0xd065db…
04-28 08:02:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5,287	87¢	$4,600	0x639a7f…
04-27 18:21:08	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	3,141	92¢	$2,890	0x4270f2…
04-27 18:04:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	7,000	89¢	$6,230	0x3e32a9…
04-27 04:23:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	92¢	$4,600	0x0bedee…
04-26 22:33:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	3,824	97¢	$3,713	0x95d552…