Knotty-Trowel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$196

Unrealized P&L

-$48

Hit rate

76.3%

Resolved

206

Trades

3,613

lifetime

Volume

$122.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$393

6 positions

First seen

2026-03-19

last 10-01 18:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Sports

40% 81% -$358

Other

38% 71% -$226

Tech

12% 89% +$464

Pop-Culture

7% 75% +$86

Politics

3% 67% -$282

Crypto

0% 100% +$121

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+7,000	$249	3¢	$178	-$70	10-01 18:23
New pandemic in 2026?	No	-100	-$87	97¢	$-97	-$10	05-09 08:17
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	-80	-$77	95¢	$-76	+$0	07-20 19:22
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	No	+50	$30	84¢	$42	+$12	08-29 19:04
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	+0	-$12	42¢	$0	+$12	07-22 02:09
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+0	-$7	1¢	$0	+$7	05-18 16:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	11	$9.6K	6,200	3,533	+2,667	No	+$35	06-08 17:59
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	141	$9.1K	5,453	5,353	+100	Yes	+$353	06-11 19:34
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?	35	$7.7K	3,900	3,900	+0	No	+$47	06-14 03:32
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	54	$6.1K	5,400	5,400	+0	No	-$1,148	06-11 03:52
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1,254	$5.0K	53,998	46,998	+7,000	open	—	10-01 18:23
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	32	$4.2K	3,665	2,297	+1,368	Yes	-$201	06-13 23:51
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	116	$3.1K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	07-21 00:39
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	104	$3.0K	6,118	4,494	+1,624	No	-$112	06-12 05:29
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	6	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	+$7	05-03 19:48
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	37	$2.8K	2,288	588	+1,700	Yes	+$18	06-12 00:35
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?	39	$2.6K	2,905	0	+2,905	Yes	+$260	04-15 04:05
nba 2025 26 3pm leader luka doncic	70	$2.5K	2,571	0	+2,571	Yes	+$75	04-13 03:25
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?	18	$2.5K	1,298	1,496	-198	No	+$46	04-27 04:24
will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	15	$2.5K	1,964	814	+1,150	No	+$267	06-30 20:16
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	172	$2.3K	47,462	27,386	+20,076	No	-$680	07-02 20:10
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?	62	$2.3K	1,659	1,763	-104	Yes	+$170	06-11 23:28
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	28	$2.2K	3,366	0	+3,366	No	+$106	05-06 20:48
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	13	$2.0K	1,073	1,073	+0	No	+$36	04-21 23:52
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	14	$1.9K	2,700	300	+2,400	Lakers	+$35	04-29 17:35
nba 2025 26 spg leader ausar thompson	9	$1.8K	1,859	0	+1,859	Yes	+$98	04-13 03:06
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	19	$1.7K	1,466	1,466	+0	Yes	+$34	06-14 00:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	35	$1.6K	3,062	0	+3,062	Yes	-$43	04-07 22:42
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$1.5K	1,500	0	+1,500	Yes	+$4	04-28 21:31
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	24	$1.4K	950	1,122	-172	Yes	-$6	05-04 20:51
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	28	$1.4K	5,900	5,400	+500	No	-$9	06-05 17:16
nba 2025 26 rpg leader nikola jokic	11	$1.2K	910	300	+610	Yes	+$4	04-10 17:29
Will Cole Caufield win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy?	17	$1.2K	2,013	100	+1,913	No	-$23	04-15 01:37
will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	13	$1.2K	700	700	+0	No	+$17	06-30 17:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$1.1K	550	550	+0	No	+$15	05-09 22:19
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	4	$1.0K	800	250	+550	Spurs	+$4	04-26 22:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-01 18:23:59	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	3¢	$8	0xe25611…
10-01 18:22:39	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	407	3¢	$11	0xcd649c…
10-01 16:45:38	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x4bdbc1…
10-01 16:44:53	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	3¢	$3	0x6b03e5…
10-01 16:44:35	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	3¢	$3	0x129ceb…
10-01 16:43:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	3¢	$3	0xd91560…
10-01 16:43:24	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	3¢	$3	0xd5c165…
10-01 16:41:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	3¢	$3	0x002710…
10-01 16:40:53	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	3¢	$3	0x1bfdfd…
10-01 16:40:44	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	3¢	$3	0x885e87…
10-01 16:40:17	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	3¢	$3	0x46b9f2…
10-01 16:39:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	3¢	$3	0x093016…
10-01 16:39:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	3¢	$3	0x4ac1b4…
10-01 16:38:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	349	3¢	$10	0xda271e…
10-01 15:46:35	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	3¢	$1	0xa7d701…
10-01 14:59:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x12c293…
10-01 14:58:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	3¢	$4	0x33a594…
10-01 13:47:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0xa561ac…
10-01 13:40:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,600	3¢	$45	0x2426eb…
10-01 13:30:05	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x37114d…
10-01 08:16:38	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,000	3¢	$90	0x62314b…
08-29 19:04:06	Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x6b5b52…
08-22 22:57:13	Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	77	75¢	$58	0x0620c7…
08-22 22:17:40	Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	75¢	$17	0x4d9e49…
08-22 16:28:03	Will Pump.fun reach $0.0058 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xed1b11…
07-22 02:09:43	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0x7741db…
07-21 21:06:46	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xf1c55d…
07-21 00:39:45	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,585	9¢	$143	0xe7988e…
07-20 19:22:46	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xf3e237…
07-20 18:11:10	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x0bdf62…
07-20 17:37:36	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	197	9¢	$18	0x7dc8ab…
07-20 17:37:31	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x15881b…
07-20 17:29:54	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	9¢	$45	0x35c648…
07-20 17:28:25	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	770	9¢	$69	0x71fad4…
07-15 18:54:22	Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0xc7c413…
07-15 18:54:22	Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	291	94¢	$275	0xa06c3b…
07-15 04:10:35	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	533	8¢	$43	0xe1f6de…
07-15 03:47:05	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	336	8¢	$27	0xb029ef…
07-14 02:32:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x9f6dd9…
07-13 02:21:20	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$1	0xa18af6…
07-12 20:45:23	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x852c94…
07-12 18:28:04	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	8¢	$2	0x898937…
07-12 12:18:11	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,087	8¢	$87	0x1af315…
07-12 10:20:11	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x186b66…
07-11 05:36:38	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	670	8¢	$54	0xc7dc63…
07-10 08:49:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0xae6bab…
07-10 06:52:53	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	261	8¢	$21	0x95cc38…
07-10 05:40:13	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	872	9¢	$78	0x47738b…
07-09 16:50:49	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x098407…
07-09 14:20:34	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	8¢	$1	0xa8b806…
07-09 13:20:58	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x6cc9ca…
07-09 13:20:05	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x27df63…
07-09 10:10:35	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	98	8¢	$8	0x4387ef…
07-08 10:21:04	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	114	10¢	$11	0x579d84…
07-08 09:31:16	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0xb73e17…
07-08 03:00:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	4¢	$2	0xfe0337…
07-08 03:00:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x938c88…
07-08 02:53:19	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0x1529aa…
07-08 02:52:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	624	4¢	$24	0x515b8c…
07-08 02:51:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xc1d3a0…
07-08 02:51:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x39de73…
07-08 02:50:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x31acd8…
07-08 02:48:50	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x66da60…
07-08 02:46:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xe5c296…
07-08 02:45:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x8892b0…
07-08 02:40:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x65cf9f…
07-08 02:37:43	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x6594fd…
07-08 02:37:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x62d943…
07-08 02:36:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xb96814…
07-08 02:35:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x93b2df…
07-08 02:34:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x6af6ce…
07-08 02:30:53	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x2e7a73…
07-08 02:29:47	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x0253ad…
07-08 02:27:43	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x537960…
07-08 02:27:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0x332d36…
07-08 02:25:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x6bcaf9…
07-08 02:24:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xdf8ff3…
07-08 02:22:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x6fa355…
07-08 02:22:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0x33eee9…
07-08 02:21:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xf5ecda…
07-08 02:20:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x83ad9b…
07-08 02:19:02	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x1fd1bc…
07-08 02:17:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x0a605c…
07-08 02:17:47	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xec98ff…
07-08 02:09:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x140ac4…
07-08 02:08:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x61c369…
07-08 02:08:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x470a79…
07-08 02:07:44	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x34c814…
07-08 02:03:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x77ee64…
07-08 02:01:38	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x441ced…
07-08 02:00:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x0169a9…
07-08 01:57:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x4fa7b9…
07-08 01:55:59	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xba9ae0…
07-08 01:55:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	4¢	$5	0x175140…
07-08 01:54:02	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xe53c76…
07-08 01:53:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x268f67…
07-08 01:52:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x6deceb…
07-08 01:51:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xf75675…
07-08 01:49:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xc05db8…
07-08 01:47:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0x0d1b18…