Adolescent-Trousers — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$68.3K

Unrealized P&L

+$4.18K

Hit rate

74.5%

Resolved

176

Trades

4,614

lifetime

Volume

$3.09M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$669

Open exposure

$10.9K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-04 04:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Politics

55% 70% +$43,399

Other

44% 73% +$26,365

Tech

0% 50% -$1,456

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 113 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+10,304	$10,000	96¢	$9.9K	-$149	09-25 10:56
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+1,630	$1,500	66¢	$1.1K	-$416	09-05 08:17
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+0	-$1,410	91¢	$0	+$1,410	09-25 14:07
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+0	-$702	96¢	$0	+$702	10-05 18:52
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$2,633	97¢	$0	+$2,633	09-28 16:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	104	$110.2K	3,261	108,303	-105,042	No	-$858	06-19 13:02
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	47	$108.3K	51,799	64,517	-12,719	No	+$5,602	04-28 15:25
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	276	$104.2K	68,016	68,016	+0	open	—	09-26 20:19
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	57	$99.1K	97,196	46,871	+50,324	Yes	+$9,445	09-12 03:18
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	98	$92.2K	67,650	35,873	+31,777	No	+$4,126	05-22 21:52
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	80	$86.5K	58,230	31,964	+26,266	No	+$3,468	03-27 19:59
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	33	$85.7K	87,616	0	+87,616	No	+$1,953	02-11 19:02
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	216	$83.7K	97,166	0	+97,166	No	+$13,516	09-26 05:35
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	65	$80.0K	82,429	0	+82,429	Yes	+$2,429	02-16 20:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	30	$75.1K	37,985	39,669	-1,685	No	+$1,656	06-30 01:03
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	40	$75.0K	75,301	0	+75,301	No	+$301	07-26 04:47
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	238	$68.9K	80,726	0	+80,726	Yes	+$11,838	10-09 22:57
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	176	$64.5K	64,817	32,948	+31,870	Yes	+$18,237	09-19 18:56
netanyahu out by march 31 854	33	$63.8K	66,423	0	+66,423	No	+$2,660	03-19 13:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	129	$59.9K	47,346	47,346	+0	No	-$111	08-28 14:28
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	41	$58.9K	40,847	42,265	-1,418	Yes	+$1,643	02-27 10:26
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	89	$48.7K	49,963	0	+49,963	No	+$1,312	02-09 08:53
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	6	$42.6K	31,691	31,690	+0	Yes	-$17,380	04-08 00:17
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	48	$40.6K	21,594	24,279	-2,686	No	-$571	06-18 09:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	13	$40.5K	24,037	24,037	+0	No	+$489	06-25 13:37
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	7	$39.3K	22,665	22,665	+0	No	-$715	08-04 13:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	108	$37.0K	44,217	0	+44,217	No	+$7,218	01-13 09:51
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	63	$35.7K	36,950	0	+36,950	No	+$1,247	06-21 18:29
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	32	$35.0K	21,454	21,453	+0	open	—	09-25 14:07
Trump out as President by June 30?	3	$34.0K	0	34,245	-34,245	No	-$270	06-12 16:39
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	16	$30.9K	15,977	15,977	+0	No	+$941	06-27 14:26
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	21	$30.0K	30,613	0	+30,613	No	+$613	08-14 02:57
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	45	$28.5K	19,572	10,111	+9,461	No	+$976	02-21 00:38
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	21	$28.2K	20,322	20,322	+0	Yes	-$1,591	01-29 04:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	86	$27.9K	20,553	17,264	+3,290	Yes	-$2,087	01-27 11:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 04:04:42	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,410	98¢	$6,292	0x099426…
11-03 10:31:42	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU?	No	SELL	345	100¢	$344	0x73d595…
11-03 10:31:24	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLDE?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$500	0x298a86…
11-02 01:39:45	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,410	78¢	$5,000	0xee9037…
11-01 17:50:34	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	3,571	70¢	$2,500	0x2e6c55…
11-01 16:56:22	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,571	70¢	$2,500	0xc087db…
10-31 07:28:55	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	906	70¢	$634	0x2da466…
10-31 07:10:39	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	70¢	$140	0x7f4667…
10-31 07:01:49	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	2,163	70¢	$1,514	0x61904b…
10-31 07:01:03	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	1,408	70¢	$986	0x392dfa…
10-31 06:59:04	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	660	70¢	$462	0xe79a1f…
10-31 06:59:03	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	352	70¢	$246	0x751cf4…
10-31 06:59:01	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	70¢	$1,400	0xeb7dec…
10-31 06:59:01	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	529	70¢	$370	0x83ba42…
10-31 01:50:52	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	4,766	70¢	$3,336	0xe51b36…
10-31 01:50:51	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	302	70¢	$211	0x9c458d…
10-31 01:50:49	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x5bc7ca…
10-31 01:50:45	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0xff27ed…
10-31 01:50:45	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x5d7e96…
10-31 01:50:43	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	302	70¢	$211	0xdefe06…
10-31 01:50:39	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	302	70¢	$211	0x8b98bf…
10-31 01:50:37	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x8c5e16…
10-31 01:50:34	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,425	70¢	$2,397	0x30bb66…
10-31 01:50:34	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	591	70¢	$413	0x239816…
10-31 01:50:33	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	400	70¢	$280	0xedd4ca…
10-31 01:50:33	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0x7099f6…
10-30 22:10:33	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0xad0449…
10-30 22:10:28	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	70¢	$15	0x95a861…
10-30 22:05:19	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	70¢	$24	0xcbd532…
10-30 22:02:06	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	70¢	$29	0x35e202…
10-30 21:50:58	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	251	70¢	$176	0x55e57a…
10-30 11:33:27	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,204	75¢	$4,653	0xb4f254…
10-28 05:46:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3,073	52¢	$1,598	0x58554d…
10-28 04:40:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	11	55¢	$6	0x8967d9…
10-28 04:39:01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0x8dcb27…
10-28 04:38:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	686	55¢	$377	0x92041e…
10-28 04:24:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	8	55¢	$4	0xe6eb1d…
10-28 04:23:22	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	18	55¢	$10	0xd60acb…
10-28 04:23:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3	55¢	$1	0xfb624f…
10-28 04:15:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x491148…
10-28 04:14:07	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xf30585…
10-28 04:10:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	16	55¢	$9	0x54cad2…
10-28 04:09:49	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	11	55¢	$6	0xd1ada9…
10-28 04:09:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x28fdc0…
10-28 04:09:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	14	55¢	$8	0x9e7d00…
10-28 04:08:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0x5db07e…
10-28 04:08:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	144	55¢	$79	0x07ed05…
10-28 04:07:35	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x91fa09…
10-28 04:07:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	18	55¢	$10	0x1eafa4…
10-28 04:07:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	8,000	55¢	$4,400	0x0041af…
10-28 04:06:40	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	34	55¢	$19	0x42027d…
10-28 04:06:25	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0xa4f181…
10-28 04:06:25	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x918131…
10-28 04:06:22	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	25	55¢	$14	0x59fc53…
10-28 04:06:01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0x9f3ee9…
10-28 04:05:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	243	55¢	$134	0xe84c7b…
10-28 04:04:37	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0xafb848…
10-28 04:04:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	114	55¢	$62	0x9ca085…
10-28 04:04:07	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	909	55¢	$500	0x49b989…
10-28 04:03:35	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	356	55¢	$196	0x3d6841…
10-28 04:03:19	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0xc23b55…
10-28 04:03:13	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	308	55¢	$170	0x0c3a6f…
10-28 04:03:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x668fc7…
10-28 04:02:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	55¢	$0	0x0fb3ee…
10-28 04:02:25	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	8	55¢	$4	0xd05ad2…
10-28 04:02:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0xda91a9…
10-28 04:02:01	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	23	55¢	$13	0x0055cb…
10-28 04:00:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	65	55¢	$36	0xc9a3c4…
10-28 04:00:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	12	55¢	$7	0x3636a4…
10-28 04:00:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x2483df…
10-28 03:59:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0xd9ca24…
10-27 23:16:39	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	2,676	6¢	$161	0xc53243…
10-26 20:07:54	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,021	74¢	$755	0x8d5fc5…
10-26 20:04:56	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	2,358	74¢	$1,745	0xb38357…
10-26 19:51:08	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,425	73¢	$2,500	0x2aa64e…
10-26 19:51:06	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1,673	74¢	$1,238	0xb4bd08…
10-26 19:33:56	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x278c70…
10-26 19:20:53	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x3287cb…
10-26 19:00:36	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	136	74¢	$101	0x213a6a…
10-26 18:50:48	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	164	74¢	$121	0x4ac2d0…
10-26 18:21:03	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x8ad458…
10-26 18:15:05	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	400	74¢	$296	0x51a90d…
10-26 17:21:41	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	385	74¢	$285	0x411e23…
10-26 16:20:12	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xe83731…
10-26 15:59:39	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	60	74¢	$44	0xa5dd70…
10-26 15:20:03	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xbacc53…
10-26 15:16:38	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	23	74¢	$17	0xd87fb1…
10-26 13:25:09	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0xe63cd6…
10-26 13:20:59	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xfb1090…
10-26 13:20:59	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xe07650…
10-26 13:12:35	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xbec49c…
10-26 11:34:59	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	466	74¢	$345	0xbf107f…
10-26 05:24:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4,263	94¢	$4,007	0x95a12c…
10-26 04:04:05	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x6a071a…
10-26 03:55:53	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	106	94¢	$100	0x184638…
10-26 03:29:50	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x0f90ac…
10-26 03:01:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	94¢	$23	0x66f37b…
10-26 03:01:11	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	395	94¢	$371	0xc4b892…
10-26 02:45:41	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0x6c0b20…
10-26 02:25:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$10	0x1cc8e9…