Adolescent-Trousers — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$321

Unrealized P&L

+$1.39K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,402

lifetime

Volume

$1.80M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$749

Open exposure

$15.9K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-01 07:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

55% — —

Other

45% 100% +$321

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 114 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No		+18,092	$14,276	86¢	$15.6K	+$1,374	06-11 12:24
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No		+294	$210	76¢	$224	+$14	07-01 07:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	47	$108.3K	51,799	64,517	-12,719	open	—	04-28 15:25
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	67	$97.2K	0	97,777	-97,777	open	—	06-19 13:02
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	98	$92.2K	67,650	35,873	+31,777	open	—	05-22 21:52
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	80	$86.5K	58,230	31,964	+26,266	open	—	03-27 19:59
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	33	$85.7K	87,616	0	+87,616	open	—	02-11 19:02
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	65	$80.0K	82,429	0	+82,429	open	—	02-16 20:49
netanyahu out by march 31 854	33	$63.8K	66,423	0	+66,423	open	—	03-19 13:07
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	41	$58.9K	40,847	42,265	-1,418	open	—	02-27 10:26
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	23	$55.1K	21,856	34,235	-12,379	open	—	06-30 01:03
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	89	$48.7K	49,963	0	+49,963	open	—	02-09 08:53
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	6	$42.6K	31,691	31,690	+0	open	—	04-08 00:17
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	48	$40.6K	21,594	24,279	-2,686	open	—	06-18 09:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	13	$40.5K	24,037	24,037	+0	open	—	06-25 13:37
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	108	$37.0K	44,217	0	+44,217	open	—	01-13 09:51
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	63	$35.7K	36,950	0	+36,950	open	—	06-21 18:29
Trump out as President by June 30?	3	$34.0K	0	34,245	-34,245	open	—	06-12 16:39
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	45	$28.5K	19,572	10,111	+9,461	open	—	02-21 00:38
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	21	$28.2K	20,322	20,322	+0	open	—	01-29 04:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	86	$27.9K	20,553	17,264	+3,290	open	—	01-27 11:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	33	$27.5K	29,004	34,953	-5,949	open	—	04-08 00:18
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	6	$25.0K	25,227	0	+25,227	open	—	03-14 14:41
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	89	$22.2K	11,690	11,690	+0	open	—	03-16 16:04
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	23	$21.4K	23,458	0	+23,458	open	—	06-29 11:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	15	$21.2K	18,751	18,751	+0	open	—	04-08 00:17
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	6	$20.0K	21,285	0	+21,285	open	—	01-15 01:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$19.9K	13,699	13,699	+0	open	—	06-04 06:17
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	46	$19.6K	11,222	11,222	+0	open	—	03-21 02:34
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	3	$19.3K	13,246	13,246	+0	open	—	06-25 03:33
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	58	$19.0K	9,031	10,491	-1,460	open	—	02-09 04:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	30	$18.1K	10,075	10,075	+0	open	—	06-26 05:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 07:19:04	US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x5e79a8…
06-30 19:41:01	US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$3	0x5260e8…
06-30 09:26:29	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x66745e…
06-30 08:41:47	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x227e14…
06-30 07:03:44	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xc28012…
06-30 04:47:08	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xe87256…
06-30 03:50:01	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x2a9b09…
06-30 02:17:52	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x90f4f8…
06-30 02:16:44	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xc16458…
06-30 01:23:29	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0x95844a…
06-30 01:17:28	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0xfa66bb…
06-30 01:06:23	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0x78c1c8…
06-30 01:03:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	17,117	100¢	$17,100	0x6b00e0…
06-30 00:42:59	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	3,756	96¢	$3,621	0x39813f…
06-29 22:39:47	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x8957dc…
06-29 22:01:59	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	480	96¢	$463	0x37577b…
06-29 21:35:23	US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0xbb3186…
06-29 21:15:05	US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x07cea2…
06-29 21:09:55	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	35	91¢	$32	0xbb944a…
06-29 21:07:29	US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0xbd1f60…
06-29 21:06:55	US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No	BUY	51	75¢	$38	0x7c104c…
06-29 18:24:29	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x6c0adf…
06-29 13:53:59	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	111	91¢	$101	0x0978c9…
06-29 11:59:14	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	47	97¢	$46	0x5edf8c…
06-29 11:43:11	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x6cf95c…
06-29 11:29:58	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x7e5873…
06-29 10:34:29	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x2ccff3…
06-29 10:27:07	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xdd74e2…
06-29 10:21:10	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	44	97¢	$43	0x8eb9c8…
06-29 08:36:53	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	2,082	97¢	$2,020	0xd82fb0…
06-29 06:27:28	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x74c29c…
06-29 06:11:46	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x682974…
06-29 01:15:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	17,117	100¢	$17,100	0x807fa2…
06-27 19:21:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	140	99¢	$138	0xcfecdf…
06-27 18:15:04	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xaf1489…
06-27 16:31:31	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	904	99¢	$892	0x455e8d…
06-27 15:46:08	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	2,900	99¢	$2,859	0xbc6b6e…
06-27 15:18:37	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7059b0…
06-27 14:54:02	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbec16d…
06-27 14:26:29	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	5,947	100¢	$5,941	0x838903…
06-27 12:12:58	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	Yes	BUY	67	93¢	$62	0x529429…
06-26 16:49:07	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	10,638	94¢	$10,000	0x918ff0…
06-26 05:15:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,501	88¢	$1,320	0x7e733d…
06-25 15:19:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	143	90¢	$129	0x7e51fd…
06-25 15:10:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0x19953b…
06-25 15:03:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xa07aaf…
06-25 14:49:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	44	90¢	$40	0x098ba4…
06-25 14:47:01	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	Yes	BUY	161	93¢	$150	0x6601a7…
06-25 14:43:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	67	90¢	$60	0x53e84f…
06-25 14:39:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xbc04b0…
06-25 14:38:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	84	90¢	$76	0x89cdd7…
06-25 14:36:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	37	90¢	$33	0x6007b6…
06-25 14:35:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x2e34f9…
06-25 14:34:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x874aee…
06-25 14:32:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	90¢	$36	0x977e01…
06-25 14:32:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	16	90¢	$14	0x8f13ed…
06-25 14:32:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	34	90¢	$31	0x53ba23…
06-25 14:31:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	41	90¢	$37	0xd1c4c9…
06-25 14:31:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	32	90¢	$29	0xc70ff0…
06-25 14:31:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	26	90¢	$23	0xb6b571…
06-25 14:28:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	90¢	$8	0xa28de3…
06-25 14:27:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,915	90¢	$2,624	0xa6cea9…
06-25 14:26:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,546	89¢	$2,266	0x1f36bc…
06-25 14:25:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	105	89¢	$93	0x0904a5…
06-25 14:24:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	80	89¢	$71	0xeaa99b…
06-25 14:24:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	49	89¢	$44	0xc1ad8b…
06-25 14:24:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	80	89¢	$71	0x04d2e3…
06-25 14:19:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	14	89¢	$12	0xc210aa…
06-25 14:19:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x9a372f…
06-25 14:19:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	140	89¢	$125	0x8ac8a6…
06-25 14:18:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	18	89¢	$16	0x77da46…
06-25 14:17:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,994	89¢	$1,775	0x0dd22f…
06-25 13:37:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	503	84¢	$420	0xab1bd3…
06-25 13:36:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	480	84¢	$401	0x8cf200…
06-25 13:36:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xefb2e9…
06-25 13:32:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	74	84¢	$62	0x8c027c…
06-25 13:32:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x08c1c3…
06-25 13:31:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	6,929	84¢	$5,827	0xe5eb58…
06-25 13:26:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	10,000	84¢	$8,413	0xfaf839…
06-25 13:24:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10,075	90¢	$9,068	0x9249fb…
06-25 12:27:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	6,004	89¢	$5,325	0x51aa4d…
06-25 10:33:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x078fac…
06-25 03:33:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	13,246	70¢	$9,272	0x315b8e…
06-24 13:27:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	6,667	75¢	$5,000	0x234d47…
06-23 01:24:43	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	10,030	100¢	$10,000	0x173517…
06-22 21:49:41	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	Yes	BUY	1,179	93¢	$1,100	0x855f68…
06-22 21:48:08	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	Yes	BUY	153	94¢	$144	0xf50452…
06-22 11:27:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	61	96¢	$58	0xdd88f3…
06-22 00:36:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0x8de991…
06-22 00:25:10	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	Yes	BUY	1,177	94¢	$1,106	0xa6d496…
06-22 00:19:04	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	53	96¢	$50	0x8257dc…
06-22 00:16:47	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	Yes	BUY	273	95¢	$260	0x3ca693…
06-22 00:16:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	94	96¢	$89	0x9d34e0…
06-22 00:09:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0xb78f56…
06-22 00:08:16	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1,380	96¢	$1,318	0x904f62…
06-21 23:21:14	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x4a80a8…
06-21 23:16:08	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0xe81627…
06-21 23:02:38	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	556	96¢	$531	0x850692…
06-21 22:35:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	121	96¢	$115	0x6ee94b…
06-21 22:26:05	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	2,908	96¢	$2,777	0xf38fe5…