Adolescent-Trousers — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$321

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,808

lifetime

Volume

$2.01M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$715

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 08:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

53% — —

Other

46% 100% +$321

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 165 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	47	$108.3K	51,799	64,517	-12,719	open	—	04-28 15:25
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	67	$97.2K	0	97,777	-97,777	open	—	06-19 13:02
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	98	$92.2K	67,650	35,873	+31,777	open	—	05-22 21:52
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	80	$86.5K	58,230	31,964	+26,266	open	—	03-27 19:59
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	33	$85.7K	87,616	0	+87,616	open	—	02-11 19:02
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	65	$80.0K	82,429	0	+82,429	open	—	02-16 20:49
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	262	$64.9K	38,225	46,778	-8,553	open	—	07-30 05:48
netanyahu out by march 31 854	33	$63.8K	66,423	0	+66,423	open	—	03-19 13:07
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	41	$58.9K	40,847	42,265	-1,418	open	—	02-27 10:26
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	23	$55.1K	21,856	34,235	-12,379	open	—	06-30 01:03
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	89	$48.7K	49,963	0	+49,963	open	—	02-09 08:53
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	6	$42.6K	31,691	31,690	+0	open	—	04-08 00:17
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	48	$40.6K	21,594	24,279	-2,686	open	—	06-18 09:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	13	$40.5K	24,037	24,037	+0	open	—	06-25 13:37
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	7	$39.3K	22,665	22,665	+0	open	—	08-04 13:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	108	$37.0K	44,217	0	+44,217	open	—	01-13 09:51
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	63	$35.7K	36,950	0	+36,950	open	—	06-21 18:29
Trump out as President by June 30?	3	$34.0K	0	34,245	-34,245	open	—	06-12 16:39
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	45	$28.5K	19,572	10,111	+9,461	open	—	02-21 00:38
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	21	$28.2K	20,322	20,322	+0	open	—	01-29 04:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	86	$27.9K	20,553	17,264	+3,290	open	—	01-27 11:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	33	$27.5K	29,004	34,953	-5,949	open	—	04-08 00:18
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	19	$26.8K	21,055	13,246	+7,809	open	—	07-06 17:50
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	6	$25.0K	25,227	0	+25,227	open	—	03-14 14:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	51	$23.7K	15,578	15,578	+0	open	—	08-10 15:12
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	89	$22.2K	11,690	11,690	+0	open	—	03-16 16:04
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	23	$21.4K	23,458	0	+23,458	open	—	06-29 11:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	15	$21.2K	18,751	18,751	+0	open	—	04-08 00:17
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	15	$20.3K	21,363	0	+21,363	open	—	08-05 20:25
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	6	$20.0K	21,285	0	+21,285	open	—	01-15 01:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 08:12:07	max miller out as us rep by december 31 2026 20260807204822039	Yes	BUY	500	50¢	$250	0x034759…
08-10 15:12:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5,503	46¢	$2,531	0xc1b324…
08-10 06:26:51	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xc0a7a9…
08-10 06:26:37	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x23409d…
08-10 06:26:28	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x812369…
08-10 06:26:22	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x0e4a93…
08-10 06:26:15	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x9afaf6…
08-10 06:26:10	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xd19a2b…
08-06 16:29:02	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	2,500	57¢	$1,422	0x9d4779…
08-05 20:25:44	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$961	0xbfc9e3…
08-05 20:20:23	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	7	96¢	$6	0x491ce2…
08-05 19:46:11	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	376	96¢	$362	0x108634…
08-05 18:10:59	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	1,520	96¢	$1,460	0x4d27e2…
08-04 14:01:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15,095	65¢	$9,812	0xd8354a…
08-04 13:04:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	525	96¢	$507	0xcabbc1…
08-04 13:03:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	11,332	83¢	$9,426	0xa367c4…
08-04 12:41:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	4,624	97¢	$4,472	0xda075b…
08-04 10:12:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xb32ab8…
08-04 04:00:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	8,546	87¢	$7,435	0x5cee6b…
08-04 03:59:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	2,786	87¢	$2,424	0x63fdf0…
08-04 01:17:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x84e015…
08-04 01:17:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x14988f…
08-04 01:17:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	15	56¢	$9	0x4a0933…
08-04 01:17:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	67	56¢	$37	0x55a81f…
08-04 01:17:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	67	56¢	$37	0x557244…
08-04 00:09:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x38ed67…
08-04 00:05:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x97b241…
08-03 23:35:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	227	56¢	$127	0xe2553e…
08-03 19:00:17	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	2,623	95¢	$2,500	0x21df30…
08-03 17:37:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x4a2dd8…
08-03 17:35:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x56570a…
08-03 17:35:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x1e6e98…
08-03 17:12:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x3922c1…
08-03 16:46:00	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	Yes	BUY	2,000	56¢	$1,120	0xadc166…
08-03 15:40:53	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	221	95¢	$211	0xdf6357…
08-03 15:37:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	56¢	$17	0xb06c00…
08-03 15:36:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	56¢	$560	0x345dfb…
08-03 15:13:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0x7acbac…
08-03 14:44:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xf5ec69…
08-03 14:40:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,300	56¢	$1,288	0x9f45d0…
08-03 13:43:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	400	56¢	$224	0x965129…
08-03 13:18:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,256	56¢	$704	0x631874…
08-03 13:07:20	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	106	95¢	$101	0x4d0446…
08-03 12:08:53	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	1,039	95¢	$990	0x0e401b…
08-03 10:34:05	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	1,451	45¢	$653	0xc3d376…
08-03 10:31:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xdc2789…
08-03 10:23:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x445b2a…
08-03 10:23:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x84ef8d…
08-03 10:22:23	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	36	45¢	$16	0x18e0ee…
08-03 10:13:18	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x8e1c55…
08-03 10:12:59	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xce8d1e…
08-03 10:08:56	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xd4c490…
08-03 07:33:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	461	46¢	$212	0xe9c74b…
08-03 07:26:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	500	46¢	$230	0xa47989…
08-03 07:26:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	39	46¢	$18	0xef02d8…
08-02 07:24:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	331	81¢	$268	0x21d954…
08-02 06:22:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	5,747	87¢	$5,000	0x061ebb…
08-02 06:20:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	5,149	97¢	$5,000	0x1712c4…
08-02 06:18:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	5,618	89¢	$5,000	0x870a8b…
08-02 04:01:23	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	5,072	96¢	$4,864	0x0f74e8…
08-02 03:54:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	42	84¢	$35	0x0010cd…
08-02 03:53:42	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	141	96¢	$136	0xfd5022…
08-01 11:44:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,731	67¢	$2,500	0xdc1690…
07-30 13:36:57	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,004	66¢	$663	0xecdb2a…
07-30 13:36:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	66¢	$1	0xafe1e6…
07-30 13:33:56	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	147	66¢	$97	0xdb1e3b…
07-30 13:28:32	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x3909bb…
07-30 13:10:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x15eba6…
07-30 13:08:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xf2f55b…
07-30 13:08:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	137	66¢	$91	0xc80edd…
07-30 13:08:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,868	66¢	$4,533	0x5bea17…
07-30 13:08:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	66¢	$13	0x5a6108…
07-30 13:06:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,153	66¢	$2,081	0xd51a10…
07-30 08:55:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x417cdc…
07-30 08:32:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	118	67¢	$79	0xd51894…
07-30 08:29:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	235	67¢	$157	0xbb2136…
07-30 08:24:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x17986b…
07-30 08:20:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x1f4d14…
07-30 05:48:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6,849	73¢	$5,000	0x8fec32…
07-28 16:04:25	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	5,376	93¢	$5,000	0xedeef8…
07-24 00:39:51	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	4,902	89¢	$4,363	0x5cc505…
07-24 00:29:06	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	455	89¢	$405	0xa0037e…
07-23 22:59:30	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	7,000	89¢	$6,230	0x95f6a1…
07-23 20:27:13	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x0ac9b3…
07-23 20:26:58	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xd1297a…
07-23 20:14:22	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x7e6ca4…
07-23 19:42:37	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x9d03af…
07-23 18:50:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0xa53183…
07-23 18:12:42	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	91	89¢	$81	0xbc995e…
07-23 18:07:42	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	1,468	89¢	$1,306	0x302103…
07-23 18:02:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3,623	69¢	$2,500	0x94a591…
07-23 18:01:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x54d73a…
07-23 18:00:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x6ee984…
07-23 17:59:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	17	69¢	$12	0x9dac5f…
07-23 17:21:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	48	69¢	$33	0xdbf615…
07-23 17:19:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	161	69¢	$111	0x1f6fde…
07-23 17:16:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0x002e1b…
07-23 17:15:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x175e51…
07-23 17:15:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x37ec0e…
07-23 17:15:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	301	69¢	$208	0x7ec844…