Adolescent-Trousers — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$321

Unrealized P&L

+$1.59K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,645

lifetime

Volume

$1.88M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$712

Open exposure

$20.8K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-22 10:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

55% — —

Other

45% 100% +$321

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 165 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No		-28,686	$-22,068	72¢	$-20510	+$1,558	07-16 04:58
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No		+304	$217	82¢	$251	+$34	07-03 13:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	47	$108.3K	51,799	64,517	-12,719	open	—	04-28 15:25
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	67	$97.2K	0	97,777	-97,777	open	—	06-19 13:02
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	98	$92.2K	67,650	35,873	+31,777	open	—	05-22 21:52
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	80	$86.5K	58,230	31,964	+26,266	open	—	03-27 19:59
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	33	$85.7K	87,616	0	+87,616	open	—	02-11 19:02
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	65	$80.0K	82,429	0	+82,429	open	—	02-16 20:49
netanyahu out by march 31 854	33	$63.8K	66,423	0	+66,423	open	—	03-19 13:07
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	41	$58.9K	40,847	42,265	-1,418	open	—	02-27 10:26
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	23	$55.1K	21,856	34,235	-12,379	open	—	06-30 01:03
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	191	$51.3K	18,998	46,778	-27,780	open	—	07-16 04:58
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	89	$48.7K	49,963	0	+49,963	open	—	02-09 08:53
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	6	$42.6K	31,691	31,690	+0	open	—	04-08 00:17
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	48	$40.6K	21,594	24,279	-2,686	open	—	06-18 09:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	13	$40.5K	24,037	24,037	+0	open	—	06-25 13:37
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	108	$37.0K	44,217	0	+44,217	open	—	01-13 09:51
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	63	$35.7K	36,950	0	+36,950	open	—	06-21 18:29
Trump out as President by June 30?	3	$34.0K	0	34,245	-34,245	open	—	06-12 16:39
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	45	$28.5K	19,572	10,111	+9,461	open	—	02-21 00:38
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	21	$28.2K	20,322	20,322	+0	open	—	01-29 04:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	86	$27.9K	20,553	17,264	+3,290	open	—	01-27 11:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	33	$27.5K	29,004	34,953	-5,949	open	—	04-08 00:18
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	19	$26.8K	21,055	13,246	+7,809	open	—	07-06 17:50
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	6	$25.0K	25,227	0	+25,227	open	—	03-14 14:41
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	89	$22.2K	11,690	11,690	+0	open	—	03-16 16:04
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	23	$21.4K	23,458	0	+23,458	open	—	06-29 11:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	15	$21.2K	18,751	18,751	+0	open	—	04-08 00:17
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	6	$20.0K	21,285	0	+21,285	open	—	01-15 01:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$19.9K	13,699	13,699	+0	open	—	06-04 06:17
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	46	$19.6K	11,222	11,222	+0	open	—	03-21 02:34
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	58	$19.0K	9,031	10,491	-1,460	open	—	02-09 04:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 10:14:01	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	726	99¢	$719	0xc2ee66…
07-21 23:49:52	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	345	99¢	$342	0xdc7d8b…
07-21 20:59:39	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xfb8a65…
07-21 19:38:37	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x3ebaea…
07-19 20:35:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	2,658	88¢	$2,339	0x5733b5…
07-19 15:31:27	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	94	99¢	$93	0x475615…
07-19 14:45:37	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xb37865…
07-19 14:16:30	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xfa7df8…
07-19 14:00:12	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xe02869…
07-19 12:42:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	73	89¢	$65	0x913b3d…
07-19 12:20:42	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	255	89¢	$227	0x8add9a…
07-19 12:13:19	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	42	89¢	$38	0x46ea01…
07-19 11:46:07	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x409659…
07-19 11:16:33	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x2326d9…
07-19 10:16:54	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	442	89¢	$393	0x566b33…
07-19 10:04:48	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	909	89¢	$809	0xe143e9…
07-19 09:29:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0xbd2199…
07-19 09:29:00	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	500	89¢	$445	0x857f71…
07-19 09:28:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	349	89¢	$311	0xfb0423…
07-19 09:28:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	113	89¢	$101	0x4d4767…
07-19 03:24:42	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	1,546	99¢	$1,529	0xa46d2c…
07-16 04:58:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7,166	76¢	$5,446	0xe6deae…
07-16 01:06:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	238	78¢	$186	0xc755e5…
07-16 01:06:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x4a3e02…
07-16 01:06:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	31	78¢	$24	0x57dda4…
07-16 01:06:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	24	78¢	$19	0x3c1dd3…
07-16 01:06:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	35	78¢	$28	0x9e03bb…
07-16 01:06:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	78¢	$6	0x74a814…
07-16 01:06:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x3be25e…
07-16 01:06:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x0290e7…
07-16 01:06:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x3821fa…
07-16 01:06:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0xe941a0…
07-16 01:06:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0xe71101…
07-16 01:06:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x33eba1…
07-16 01:06:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	15	78¢	$12	0xf8677e…
07-16 01:06:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	29	78¢	$22	0xa8614f…
07-16 01:06:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x9d3e15…
07-16 01:06:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0x87e756…
07-16 01:06:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x5db1fc…
07-16 01:06:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x4a89e7…
07-16 01:06:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0x0a3ee4…
07-16 01:06:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	44	78¢	$34	0xc2cd72…
07-16 01:06:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	111	78¢	$87	0xc065ca…
07-16 01:06:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	45	78¢	$35	0xbee315…
07-16 01:06:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0x7e973e…
07-16 01:06:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x10f091…
07-16 01:06:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	78¢	$0	0xbd96fb…
07-16 01:06:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	78¢	$2	0xb45465…
07-16 01:06:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x949d71…
07-16 01:06:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0x865a3d…
07-16 01:06:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x623438…
07-16 01:06:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	78¢	$0	0x4b28fc…
07-16 01:06:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x103fc3…
07-16 01:06:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0xb727c8…
07-16 01:05:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	146	78¢	$114	0xa340b7…
07-16 01:01:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	241	78¢	$188	0x68526d…
07-16 00:58:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	37	78¢	$29	0xb45403…
07-16 00:58:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x26058c…
07-16 00:56:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	15	78¢	$12	0x5c0211…
07-16 00:56:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xc49664…
07-16 00:56:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x3bbeee…
07-16 00:56:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	196	78¢	$153	0x261aac…
07-16 00:56:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	392	78¢	$306	0x5444a6…
07-16 00:56:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x8ca40d…
07-16 00:56:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	17	78¢	$13	0x621818…
07-16 00:56:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	74	78¢	$58	0xf956a1…
07-16 00:56:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xde9f18…
07-16 00:56:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	19	78¢	$15	0xbc7da2…
07-16 00:56:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x33b757…
07-16 00:56:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x0bd3ee…
07-16 00:56:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x5d8ce2…
07-16 00:56:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x02a262…
07-16 00:56:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xf7f855…
07-16 00:56:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x7190f6…
07-16 00:55:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xcd5a5a…
07-16 00:55:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x0771dd…
07-16 00:55:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x1b9e6a…
07-16 00:55:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x0e3521…
07-16 00:55:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x008aec…
07-16 00:55:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x23113d…
07-16 00:55:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xd7c2db…
07-16 00:55:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x06baf0…
07-16 00:54:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xa8e2d4…
07-16 00:54:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x3f3fd9…
07-16 00:54:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x11462e…
07-16 00:54:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xd31255…
07-16 00:54:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x496f73…
07-16 00:54:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xf3382f…
07-16 00:54:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x2c10f7…
07-16 00:54:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xc8c8be…
07-16 00:54:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xdb6983…
07-16 00:54:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x62b702…
07-16 00:54:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x3874ec…
07-16 00:53:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xc16ea9…
07-16 00:53:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xb66b21…
07-16 00:53:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xbee273…
07-16 00:53:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x520483…
07-16 00:53:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x508592…
07-16 00:53:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x27e2ea…
07-16 00:53:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x76d3b4…