Busy-Doorpost 0x9690d9…a5f2d5
whale
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$317
Unrealized P&L
+$1.29K
Hit rate
33.7%
Resolved
5
Trades
7,846
lifetime
Volume
$1.22M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$156
Open exposure
$8.96K
15 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-01 06:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 3 days
Categories
Politics
52% 50% +$447
Other
38% 0% $-130
Sports
8% — —
Tech
2% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk • peak 141 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +1,700 $1,533 100¢ $1.7K +$160 06-10 14:28
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +1,687 $1,196 100¢ $1.7K +$490 06-24 01:18
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No -974 $-877 100¢ $-973 $-96 06-16 05:58
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +2,000 $1,080 46¢ $930 $-150 06-20 20:24
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +905 $746 100¢ $904 +$158 06-26 00:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -1,000 $-830 86¢ $-865 $-35 06-01 16:02
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? Yes +642 $336 90¢ $574 +$238 06-28 11:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +600 $450 82¢ $495 +$45 06-02 07:41
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No +387 $310 88¢ $339 +$29 06-12 07:10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,216 $-608 18¢ $-225 +$383 05-29 15:16
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes -1,803 $-180 8¢ $-153 +$27 07-01 06:40
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No +200 $142 46¢ $91 $-51 06-11 04:24
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes -275 $-74 7¢ $-19 +$55 06-01 08:58
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +8 $-29 95¢ $8 +$37 06-25 18:22
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? Yes -10 $-0 0¢ $-0 +$0 06-19 15:26