Profuse-Swine-Design — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.80K

Unrealized P&L

-$836

Hit rate

46.0%

Resolved

327

Trades

4,135

lifetime

Volume

$415.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$100

Open exposure

$434

5 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 10-27 02:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 116 days

Categories

Politics

62% 42% +$1,288

Other

34% 28% +$1,892

Sports

4% 24% -$1,383

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 221 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+744	$170	29¢	$218	+$48	09-26 15:33
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	+19,427	$564	1¢	$126	-$438	10-26 23:44
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+2,501	$27	2¢	$60	+$33	10-27 02:24
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	+2,118	$506	1¢	$29	-$477	10-22 12:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	+17	$2	4¢	$1	-$2	10-25 22:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	120	$26.5K	88,264	88,264	+0	No	-$718	06-26 09:08
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	97	$19.8K	85,172	85,172	+0	open	—	09-15 13:16
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	53	$19.3K	57,915	57,915	+0	No	+$3,825	06-14 20:34
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	37	$14.4K	31,809	31,809	+0	open	—	08-01 19:34
israel closes its airspace by june 8	43	$10.3K	15,046	15,046	+0	No	-$629	06-08 12:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	39	$10.2K	77,989	77,989	+0	No	+$191	05-24 13:34
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	111	$9.8K	113,611	113,611	+0	No	+$553	06-14 16:10
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	12	$9.4K	31,377	31,377	+0	No	-$51	07-28 18:12
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	44	$9.4K	26,980	26,980	+0	No	+$4,983	06-29 10:48
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	41	$8.6K	16,715	16,715	+0	No	+$1,564	06-24 22:17
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	56	$8.4K	36,801	35,317	+1,485	No	-$1,420	07-31 19:49
iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	120	$6.5K	103,073	41,382	+61,690	No	-$959	09-30 11:53
england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	21	$5.7K	13,952	2,556	+11,397	Yes	+$7,122	07-05 23:06
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	16	$5.3K	8,170	5,170	+3,000	Yes	-$696	06-14 22:35
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	54	$5.2K	55,550	48,894	+6,656	No	-$268	06-29 23:25
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	48	$5.0K	66,639	66,639	+0	No	-$981	05-26 10:09
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	45	$4.9K	38,268	27,670	+10,598	No	-$1,909	06-09 11:36
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	21	$4.6K	10,208	10,208	+0	Yes	+$669	07-24 19:10
Iran leadership change by May 31?	83	$4.5K	30,933	30,933	+0	No	-$314	05-23 17:39
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	31	$4.4K	7,888	7,888	+0	open	—	10-26 10:02
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	27	$4.3K	16,070	16,070	+0	No	+$410	07-25 01:04
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	220	$4.2K	22,592	15,093	+7,499	No	-$937	08-30 19:36
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	17	$4.1K	20,273	20,273	+0	No	+$156	05-26 04:06
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	18	$4.0K	27,197	27,197	+0	No	-$63	05-26 19:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	105	$3.8K	55,156	45,032	+10,125	No	-$733	05-18 15:16
Iran leadership change by December 31?	7	$3.7K	11,181	11,181	+0	open	—	09-30 19:56
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	38	$3.6K	66,564	66,564	+0	No	+$201	07-21 10:10
Iran leadership change by June 30?	47	$3.5K	33,077	23,196	+9,881	No	+$8	06-28 18:11
iran leadership change by june 30 2027	11	$3.4K	6,595	6,595	+0	open	—	08-16 21:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	39	$3.4K	33,793	33,793	+0	No	+$20	05-26 19:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 02:24:08	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$8	0x587ac2…
10-26 23:44:48	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$7	0xc2bb85…
10-26 19:28:00	Will Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0xc6106f…
10-26 17:28:42	Will Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0xe7c161…
10-26 17:28:42	Will Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	95	32¢	$30	0xcf4bbd…
10-26 17:28:41	Will Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC win on 2026-10-26?	Yes	BUY	51	32¢	$16	0xbe61fd…
10-26 16:00:38	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$7	0x54034a…
10-26 15:56:54	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2,001	1¢	$30	0x2964ef…
10-26 10:02:21	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	2,693	27¢	$727	0x87af50…
10-25 22:12:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0x47d877…
10-25 21:49:11	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x32aba8…
10-25 21:46:33	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	No	SELL	319	69¢	$220	0x253399…
10-25 20:20:44	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x81face…
10-25 20:14:09	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0x746763…
10-25 20:10:41	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0x679386…
10-25 20:05:09	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	190	21¢	$40	0xaf56b1…
10-25 11:51:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	SELL	1,000	1¢	$6	0x6f2add…
10-25 11:51:09	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,243	6¢	$72	0x3db9ea…
10-25 09:09:44	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x14a972…
10-24 20:29:33	UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	Movsar Evloev	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0xa59699…
10-24 20:18:17	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	192	26¢	$50	0xdd4bce…
10-24 19:25:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	1,000	2¢	$15	0xe64059…
10-24 15:21:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	82	27¢	$22	0x5b3128…
10-24 14:38:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	114	27¢	$31	0x0e19fb…
10-24 14:32:39	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	2¢	$32	0xbd8c11…
10-24 14:03:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	64	27¢	$17	0xdd5719…
10-24 13:52:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3	27¢	$1	0xd7ab8f…
10-24 13:51:44	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,000	27¢	$270	0x1dffe5…
10-24 13:35:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	47	27¢	$13	0x08634a…
10-24 13:34:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	272	27¢	$73	0xac6f88…
10-24 11:57:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,111	27¢	$300	0x5d630a…
10-23 16:08:02	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	889	9¢	$80	0xfbe178…
10-23 08:44:00	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	646	9¢	$58	0xa06db4…
10-22 12:27:32	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	8¢	$80	0x9db56f…
10-22 12:00:33	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	1,500	4¢	$57	0x41b2b2…
10-22 11:10:30	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,146	2¢	$29	0xc8d114…
10-22 05:29:25	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	590	32¢	$189	0x602e52…
10-22 04:35:26	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	410	32¢	$131	0x14f498…
10-21 08:28:06	Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	Yes	SELL	375	3¢	$12	0x9915f2…
10-21 08:27:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	200	31¢	$62	0xe25159…
10-20 18:30:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0xb08004…
10-20 18:30:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x58ce36…
10-20 17:40:59	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	995	8¢	$80	0x546a03…
10-20 09:15:23	Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	5¢	$14	0x48b178…
10-19 17:41:39	Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-10-19?	Yes	BUY	107	47¢	$50	0x4946bd…
10-19 17:40:18	Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-10-19?	Yes	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x87fdf7…
10-19 12:11:20	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x7425e1…
10-19 11:12:23	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	33¢	$330	0xf07c6c…
10-18 19:00:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,645	32¢	$526	0xd9895a…
10-18 18:50:03	Will Hapoel Jerusalem FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	60	46¢	$28	0x0a1f09…
10-18 18:42:14	Will Hapoel Jerusalem FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x645fde…
10-18 14:49:33	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	645	31¢	$200	0xa85455…
10-18 13:15:59	Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0xc00c2c…
10-18 11:40:47	Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	198	50¢	$100	0x9266b3…
10-17 17:14:50	Will Hapoel Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x5ea6da…
10-17 17:13:26	Will Hapoel Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	270	37¢	$100	0x5bb404…
10-17 16:56:54	Will Ironi Tiberias win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0x7b0223…
10-17 16:36:48	Will Ironi Tiberias win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xa04ed0…
10-17 16:30:26	Will Hapoel Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	74	79¢	$58	0xeae512…
10-17 16:30:17	Will Hapoel Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	61	81¢	$50	0x2fde36…
10-17 16:28:51	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	8¢	$80	0x51e1fd…
10-17 15:53:11	Will Ironi Tiberias win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x80b2eb…
10-16 19:25:41	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	SELL	7,000	3¢	$176	0xe49e63…
10-15 14:10:20	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	SELL	2,587	1¢	$21	0xd6fea2…
10-15 13:53:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,000	28¢	$280	0x5b2f60…
10-15 12:29:28	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	6¢	$60	0x2f34ae…
10-14 15:28:33	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	1,397	2¢	$24	0xcb0a2d…
10-14 15:22:37	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	1,190	2¢	$20	0xe0af78…
10-14 14:02:05	israel military action against yemen by october 31	Yes	BUY	375	8¢	$30	0x568d07…
10-13 19:41:15	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	108	37¢	$40	0x3c94c5…
10-13 15:12:49	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	1,429	7¢	$100	0xe199ab…
10-12 17:58:20	Will Maccabi Haifa FC win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	143	35¢	$50	0x2b45ec…
10-12 04:03:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	1,012	6¢	$61	0xd73a9b…
10-09 18:11:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	SELL	2,187	0¢	$9	0xdbc6b1…
10-09 18:03:50	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	187	1¢	$3	0x33dc26…
10-09 17:42:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x0d2817…
10-09 17:42:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	1,020	1¢	$10	0x1283c4…
10-09 17:41:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	1,167	1¢	$7	0x1fc606…
10-09 16:27:11	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	6¢	$60	0x6edf75…
10-09 16:25:15	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$70	0xe3bc65…
10-09 16:22:44	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$70	0x1cbb19…
10-08 19:49:09	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,048	2¢	$18	0x957903…
10-08 19:45:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	429	7¢	$30	0xdfc42a…
10-08 17:26:21	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	700	9¢	$63	0x5e29be…
10-08 17:26:08	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,333	1¢	$20	0x1fe870…
10-08 16:18:45	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	2¢	$32	0x79904c…
10-08 12:10:21	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	690	3¢	$20	0x3ecc11…
10-08 10:22:35	Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	702	6¢	$40	0x393274…
10-08 07:22:14	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$18	0xf9f2e7…
10-07 19:54:13	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0x5e5ef1…
10-07 13:11:02	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0xde6645…
10-07 10:40:23	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	2,056	10¢	$206	0x0b62de…
10-07 01:00:30	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x025649…
10-07 00:15:48	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x42f910…
10-06 21:13:41	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	223	8¢	$18	0x5c0610…
10-06 12:57:34	Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,429	1¢	$20	0x6a2b8f…
10-06 07:35:46	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	500	9¢	$45	0x47f8c0…
10-06 07:35:24	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	10¢	$191	0xc87f6d…
10-05 19:55:22	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	8¢	$80	0x172cd3…
10-05 19:35:46	israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	Yes	BUY	1,667	6¢	$100	0xde951b…