Stable-Entry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

43.0%

Resolved

Trades

263

lifetime

Volume

$522

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$18

11 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 08-09 19:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Other

52% 47% -$14

Politics

45% 41% -$5

Sports

2% 0% -$7

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-41	-$7	17¢	$-7	+$1	08-07 09:18
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+4	$2	70¢	$3	+$1	08-01 21:25
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	-2	-$1	97¢	$-2	$0	07-08 20:25
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	+12	$3	12¢	$1	-$2	06-22 22:02
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+10	$3	14¢	$1	-$2	05-28 22:41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+10	$5	14¢	$1	-$4	06-03 19:28
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+61	$6	2¢	$1	-$5	06-22 22:04
situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	+9	$1	7¢	$1	$0	08-01 21:14
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	+6	$2	6¢	$0	-$2	08-01 21:15
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	+3	$1	6¢	$0	-$1	05-11 08:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	05-17 22:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	38	$51	340	33	+307	Yes	-$35	06-16 09:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	6	$33	75	25	+50	Yes	+$9	06-15 12:01
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	7	$20	53	5	+47	No	-$15	07-14 19:15
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	6	$20	91	104	-12	No	-$2	05-17 21:53
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?	8	$18	33	0	+33	Yes	-$18	06-18 13:01
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	3	$16	17	17	+0	No	+$12	07-16 22:42
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	9	$16	118	5	+113	No	-$12	07-15 13:30
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	4	$15	6	17	-11	Yes	-$2	06-18 13:04
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	4	$15	15	15	+0	No	+$1	06-16 21:55
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	3	$14	14	14	+0	Yes	+$0	05-24 21:29
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	4	$12	83	83	+0	No	-$2	05-24 22:09
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	3	$11	9	8	+1	Yes	+$0	05-28 22:11
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	4	$11	19	16	+3	Yes	-$1	05-28 22:32
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?	5	$11	63	31	+32	No	-$1	06-17 19:03
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	1	$10	19	0	+19	Yes	+$9	03-13 09:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$10	24	0	+24	Yes	+$14	03-13 09:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$10	8	8	+0	Yes	+$4	06-14 21:51
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?	5	$9	16	16	+0	Yes	-$1	06-03 19:31
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	3	$8	5	5	+0	No	+$2	07-08 20:20
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	1	$7	0	41	-41	open	—	08-07 09:18
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	3	$7	15	15	+0	Yes	-$1	08-09 19:17
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	5	$7	9	9	+0	No	+$1	05-28 23:01
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	2	$6	18	0	+18	Yes	+$12	06-17 22:00
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	2	$6	67	0	+67	Yes	-$6	07-13 18:58
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?	2	$6	9	0	+9	No	+$3	05-14 18:44
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	4	$6	61	0	+61	open	—	06-22 22:04
starmer out by august 31 2026	1	$5	9	0	+9	Yes	+$4	06-13 08:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	06-03 19:28
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	2	$4	2	2	+0	No	+$0	05-19 19:15
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	2	$4	8	8	+0	Spain	+$0	07-10 20:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 19:17:55	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0x2be81e…
08-07 09:18:12	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	41	18¢	$7	0x1adef3…
08-01 21:30:41	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xb70fbb…
08-01 21:29:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x486fda…
08-01 21:25:30	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xf6fcc9…
08-01 21:20:24	Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x67fdca…
08-01 21:15:41	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x2ed129…
08-01 21:14:32	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xedb552…
08-01 21:12:14	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xab2d31…
08-01 21:06:14	Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x4dce9b…
08-01 21:06:00	Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x5d6094…
07-16 22:42:19	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	83¢	$12	0x2974e5…
07-16 22:32:41	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	83¢	$2	0xb5ce63…
07-15 13:30:52	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x0f956f…
07-15 13:25:20	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe9dad8…
07-15 13:25:14	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x1ad49c…
07-14 19:21:56	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x1ea6df…
07-14 19:15:41	Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xd4c1ae…
07-14 19:04:26	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	4¢	$2	0x2f2440…
07-14 19:03:49	Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x07b84c…
07-13 19:02:07	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe8f53a…
07-13 19:01:55	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xfa474e…
07-13 18:58:59	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x1b98e3…
07-11 22:21:22	Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x20f3b6…
07-11 19:29:43	Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xbaf616…
07-10 20:34:02	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Belgium	SELL	8	27¢	$2	0x67b40d…
07-10 20:33:58	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0x0c8a00…
07-10 20:05:46	Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0xacf5d3…
07-09 21:24:55	Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0x3a1052…
07-09 20:55:11	Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x8978f9…
07-09 20:54:56	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xd0457b…
07-08 21:08:58	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x558c42…
07-08 20:43:29	Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xc38562…
07-08 20:39:38	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x0f4fb3…
07-08 20:39:19	Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x749bcd…
07-08 20:38:23	Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x9a40d4…
07-08 20:36:08	Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x5ac401…
07-08 20:35:19	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xb32023…
07-08 20:31:56	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x207bef…
07-08 20:27:02	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x3e9786…
07-08 20:26:08	Revolut IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xf11fa7…
07-08 20:25:32	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0x172ee9…
07-08 20:20:13	Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x36e7ec…
07-08 20:12:38	Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x761e79…
07-08 20:11:14	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xc0c36c…
07-05 17:35:11	Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0x7b0de8…
07-05 17:29:31	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x143794…
07-05 17:28:01	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	England	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xf59c8e…
07-05 17:26:29	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team to advance	Norway	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x7448e7…
07-01 17:43:46	Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0x909438…
07-01 17:43:43	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x1b4662…
07-01 17:35:34	Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xe4bd77…
07-01 17:35:23	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x116b32…
07-01 17:34:17	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	England	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x45dd77…
06-29 22:30:26	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xc8c421…
06-29 22:30:19	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x063279…
06-29 21:43:49	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x86a19a…
06-29 21:43:13	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x9284d2…
06-29 21:42:25	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x0772dc…
06-29 11:23:20	Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xeed721…
06-28 14:19:35	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x0a0329…
06-28 14:18:29	Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x87dc41…
06-25 21:29:10	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x1f7563…
06-25 18:07:41	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x3efa07…
06-25 18:07:17	Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x4971bf…
06-25 15:33:19	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x4045a9…
06-25 04:15:49	Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	1¢	$0	0xfaadb1…
06-24 20:57:35	Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	1¢	$0	0x92aa81…
06-24 20:32:22	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xffd82e…
06-24 19:55:38	Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0x623522…
06-24 19:51:26	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xf1ffd6…
06-23 20:58:25	Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x86d5b1…
06-23 14:12:46	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x918143…
06-22 23:34:22	Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	1¢	$0	0x95adba…
06-22 23:34:20	Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x302bb0…
06-22 22:39:16	Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xcad7fc…
06-22 22:39:16	Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x737291…
06-22 22:34:02	Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x520397…
06-22 22:26:19	Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x81c6c9…
06-22 22:26:19	Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	1¢	$1	0x274a13…
06-22 22:26:17	Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xb6ef6d…
06-22 22:26:17	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x443b0e…
06-22 22:16:58	Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x0f7f19…
06-22 22:15:05	Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xe10774…
06-22 22:15:05	Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0xdaf3dd…
06-22 22:15:05	Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x2835c8…
06-22 22:15:05	Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x052e85…
06-22 22:08:26	Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	1¢	$1	0xae0e69…
06-22 22:08:01	Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x7f65dd…
06-22 22:04:26	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xf81657…
06-22 22:02:37	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xf7ae23…
06-22 21:58:47	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0x7a764d…
06-22 09:42:50	starmer out by june 23 2026	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xbc601a…
06-22 09:42:23	starmer out by june 23 2026	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x56de9a…
06-19 20:03:05	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x2b4fe0…
06-18 13:13:52	Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Yes	SELL	4	53¢	$2	0xededca…
06-18 13:04:02	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0xd7737c…
06-18 13:01:26	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?	No	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xeac127…
06-17 22:00:40	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc2f275…
06-17 21:58:11	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x9e6a44…