Cruel-Moat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.62K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$56

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 07-28 02:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

86% 100% +$14

Politics

14% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$803	407	407	+0	open	—	04-26 05:03
Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-1.5)	1	$430	435	0	+435	FCSB	+$5	05-11 09:40
Spread: Hellas Verona FC (-1.5)	1	$426	435	0	+435	Como 1907	+$9	05-10 08:28
Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)	1	$401	414	0	+414	open	—	04-26 05:23
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	4	$187	1,040	1,040	+0	open	—	06-02 03:22
us x china tariff agreement by december 31	4	$164	910	910	+0	open	—	07-06 08:44
ukraine coup attempt by december 31	4	$162	900	900	+0	open	—	07-06 07:00
ukraine election called by august 31 2026	4	$125	890	890	+0	open	—	07-12 02:28
will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	5	$110	690	690	+0	open	—	07-02 09:21
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	4	$103	795	795	+0	open	—	06-23 09:21
will ukraine agree to cede territory to russia by august 31 2026	5	$96	800	800	+0	open	—	06-26 03:12
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)	4	$94	1,040	5	+1,035	open	—	05-30 05:35
den nor bro 2026 04 07 spread home 2pt5	4	$93	677	249	+428	open	—	04-07 07:53
hormuz island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014603393	3	$89	890	890	+0	open	—	07-28 02:14
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5	2	$82	1,030	0	+1,030	open	—	06-02 03:27
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	4	$77	860	860	+0	open	—	07-12 05:08
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)	2	$64	1,070	0	+1,070	open	—	05-31 05:11
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	4	$56	560	560	+0	open	—	06-20 05:21
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	3	$30	215	405	-190	open	—	06-15 04:53
sud tig mac 2026 04 16 spread away 1pt5	2	$15	702	0	+702	open	—	04-16 06:30
sea juv gen 2026 04 06 spread away 1pt5	2	$8	390	0	+390	open	—	04-06 05:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-28 02:14:37	hormuz island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014603393	Yes	SELL	890	5¢	$44	0x06b2b9…
07-28 01:39:03	hormuz island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014603393	Yes	BUY	460	5¢	$23	0x00498a…
07-28 01:38:54	hormuz island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720014603393	Yes	BUY	430	5¢	$22	0x027db2…
07-12 05:08:19	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	445	4¢	$20	0x93a18a…
07-12 05:08:05	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	415	4¢	$18	0xc14fde…
07-12 03:20:04	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	425	4¢	$19	0x233e94…
07-12 03:19:40	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	435	4¢	$20	0x504f3c…
07-12 02:28:37	ukraine election called by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	460	7¢	$32	0x9f77e1…
07-12 02:28:20	ukraine election called by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	430	7¢	$30	0xe75e86…
07-12 01:46:38	ukraine election called by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	440	7¢	$31	0x149a5c…
07-12 01:46:28	ukraine election called by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	450	7¢	$32	0x58c746…
07-06 08:44:44	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	No	SELL	470	9¢	$42	0xb58ba3…
07-06 08:44:32	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	No	SELL	440	9¢	$40	0x8c2862…
07-06 07:40:11	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	No	BUY	450	9¢	$40	0x3f1021…
07-06 07:40:02	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	No	BUY	460	9¢	$41	0x88194d…
07-06 07:00:14	ukraine coup attempt by december 31	Yes	SELL	465	10¢	$46	0x4a74c1…
07-06 07:00:02	ukraine coup attempt by december 31	Yes	SELL	435	10¢	$44	0x93ac60…
07-06 06:09:37	ukraine coup attempt by december 31	Yes	BUY	445	8¢	$36	0xe3c6b7…
07-06 06:09:16	ukraine coup attempt by december 31	Yes	BUY	455	8¢	$36	0x80fc92…
07-02 09:21:29	will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	Yes	SELL	40	9¢	$4	0xdf0662…
07-02 09:21:17	will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	Yes	SELL	330	9¢	$30	0x8dbf49…
07-02 09:20:53	will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	Yes	SELL	320	9¢	$29	0xcd67c6…
06-26 05:49:43	will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	Yes	BUY	350	7¢	$25	0xf87a19…
06-26 05:49:28	will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	Yes	BUY	340	7¢	$24	0xea4bc4…
06-26 03:12:32	will ukraine agree to cede territory to russia by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0x28537d…
06-26 03:08:05	will ukraine agree to cede territory to russia by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	395	6¢	$24	0x948c1e…
06-26 03:07:43	will ukraine agree to cede territory to russia by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	365	6¢	$22	0x2457fb…
06-26 01:54:04	will ukraine agree to cede territory to russia by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	415	6¢	$25	0xe56e8d…
06-26 01:53:46	will ukraine agree to cede territory to russia by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	385	6¢	$23	0x35afe5…
06-23 09:21:43	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	Yes	SELL	410	6¢	$25	0x49c787…
06-23 09:21:29	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	Yes	SELL	385	6¢	$23	0x251b9b…
06-23 02:32:55	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	395	7¢	$28	0xa01f41…
06-23 02:32:29	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	400	7¢	$28	0x20289c…
06-20 05:21:37	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Yes	SELL	245	5¢	$12	0xaf4e80…
06-20 05:21:23	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Yes	SELL	315	5¢	$16	0x74bb97…
06-20 03:35:53	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Yes	BUY	265	5¢	$13	0xf40c43…
06-20 03:35:35	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Yes	BUY	295	5¢	$15	0x7f5a15…
06-15 04:53:31	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	5¢	$8	0xbf85a3…
06-15 04:52:07	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	230	5¢	$11	0xba3eed…
06-15 03:03:10	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	215	5¢	$10	0xdc22cd…
06-02 03:27:00	Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	510	8¢	$41	0xfc0d8c…
06-02 03:26:35	Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	520	8¢	$42	0xf7a75b…
06-02 03:22:58	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	505	9¢	$45	0xa83c7b…
06-02 03:22:02	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	535	9¢	$48	0x8eae9d…
06-02 02:36:11	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	515	9¢	$46	0x6c1383…
06-02 02:35:59	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	525	9¢	$47	0x29af0d…
05-31 05:11:37	Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)	Dalian Yingbo FC	BUY	570	6¢	$34	0x336671…
05-31 05:11:21	Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)	Dalian Yingbo FC	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0x93d458…
05-30 05:35:38	Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)	Qingdao Hainiu FC	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xaff821…
05-30 05:30:40	Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)	Qingdao Hainiu FC	BUY	525	9¢	$47	0x2768f4…
05-30 05:30:19	Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)	Qingdao Hainiu FC	BUY	510	9¢	$46	0x0fff36…
05-30 05:30:16	Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)	Qingdao Hainiu FC	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x834e59…
05-11 09:40:00	Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-1.5)	FCSB	BUY	435	99¢	$430	0xfda1a3…
05-10 08:28:56	Spread: Hellas Verona FC (-1.5)	Como 1907	BUY	435	98¢	$426	0x78e4e8…
04-26 05:23:52	Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)	Stade Rennais FC 1901	BUY	414	97¢	$401	0x28b041…
04-26 05:03:40	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	407	99¢	$402	0x1bd728…
04-26 02:50:04	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	407	99¢	$402	0xbb4095…
04-16 06:30:48	sud tig mac 2026 04 16 spread away 1pt5	CSyD Macará	BUY	356	2¢	$8	0x9c7844…
04-16 06:30:22	sud tig mac 2026 04 16 spread away 1pt5	CSyD Macará	BUY	346	2¢	$8	0x07f7e2…
04-07 07:53:59	den nor bro 2026 04 07 spread home 2pt5	FC Nordsjælland	SELL	249	11¢	$27	0x747f29…
04-07 07:49:35	den nor bro 2026 04 07 spread home 2pt5	FC Nordsjælland	BUY	245	11¢	$27	0x180365…
04-07 07:47:35	den nor bro 2026 04 07 spread home 2pt5	FC Nordsjælland	BUY	213	9¢	$19	0x952368…
04-07 07:46:29	den nor bro 2026 04 07 spread home 2pt5	FC Nordsjælland	BUY	219	9¢	$20	0xb964e1…
04-06 05:44:41	sea juv gen 2026 04 06 spread away 1pt5	Genoa CFC	BUY	211	2¢	$4	0x8a449b…
04-06 05:43:59	sea juv gen 2026 04 06 spread away 1pt5	Genoa CFC	BUY	179	2¢	$4	0xb8a791…