Cloudy-Downfall — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$232

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

77.0%

Resolved

173

Trades

683

lifetime

Volume

$66.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$97

Open exposure

$55

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 09-21 15:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

96% 73% +$291

Crypto

4% 74% -$58

Politics

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	-25	-$14	77¢	$-19	-$6	05-27 00:13
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	-20	-$17	96¢	$-19	-$2	05-18 20:27
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	-10	-$10	99¢	$-10	$0	09-21 15:39
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	-25	-$8	23¢	$-6	+$2	05-24 11:51
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	-20	-$3	4¢	$-1	+$2	05-21 07:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
over 180m committed to the ranger public sale 427 827 792 766 618	20	$4.2K	2,098	2,231	-133	No	+$40	01-10 14:46
elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 0 39	16	$3.7K	2,152	2,152	+0	No	-$67	02-07 00:29
elon musk of tweets february 23 february 25 40 64	12	$3.6K	2,123	1,523	+600	No	+$11	02-25 14:15
elon musk of tweets january 24 january 26 0 39	8	$3.0K	1,485	1,485	+0	No	+$6	01-25 10:38
elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 0 39	4	$2.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	No	+$4	01-23 01:31
over 120m committed to the ranger public sale 394 737 727 472 842	7	$2.4K	1,250	1,250	+0	No	+$81	01-10 15:56
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 0 39	9	$2.3K	2,348	0	+2,348	No	+$68	03-16 07:45
Over $25M committed to the Trove public sale?	8	$2.3K	1,138	1,138	+0	No	+$13	01-11 17:18
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 0 39	6	$2.2K	1,080	1,080	+0	No	$0	01-27 15:39
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 100 119	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$3	03-06 08:00
elon musk of tweets january 19 january 21 215 239	4	$2.0K	1,006	1,006	+0	No	-$1	01-19 15:38
elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 40 64	6	$1.7K	666	1,045	-379	No	+$13	01-23 05:45
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 0 39	2	$1.7K	1,685	0	+1,685	No	+$3	02-03 09:01
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?	7	$1.6K	812	812	+0	No	+$41	01-11 17:02
elon musk of tweets january 19 january 21 40 64	3	$1.5K	1,073	400	+673	No	+$16	01-20 07:37
elon musk of tweets february 9 february 11 40 64	6	$1.4K	801	695	+106	No	+$5	02-10 09:17
elon musk of tweets february 9 february 11 90 114	33	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$74	02-10 08:44
elon musk of tweets january 19 january 21 240plus	8	$1.2K	600	600	-0	No	+$10	01-20 20:38
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	3	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	09-21 15:40
elon musk of tweets january 24 january 26 40 64	2	$1.1K	1,129	0	+1,129	No	+$6	01-25 10:37
elon musk of tweets january 17 january 19 65 89	1	$1000	1,006	0	+1,006	No	+$6	01-19 02:01
elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 0 39	7	$998	500	500	+0	No	+$1	01-15 03:43
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 120 139	6	$985	500	500	+0	No	+$12	03-06 08:00
elon musk of tweets march 12 march 14 0 39	5	$983	991	0	+991	No	+$7	03-13 06:57
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 40 64	7	$982	654	654	+0	No	-$170	01-28 00:08
will silver si hit high 140 by end of january 438 122 492	6	$876	900	0	+900	No	+$24	01-29 13:21
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 90 114	7	$860	702	500	+202	No	-$60	01-28 00:15
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 0 39	3	$768	407	407	+0	No	+$44	02-08 14:45
over 200m committed to the ranger public sale 184 417 328 897 999	4	$758	489	300	+189	No	+$18	01-10 12:23
elon musk of tweets january 17 january 19 140 164	5	$645	339	339	+0	No	+$13	01-19 15:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-21 15:40:04	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	600	96¢	$576	0xba577f…
09-21 15:39:53	Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe562a5…
06-18 04:36:40	Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0x8ec8b3…
06-18 04:36:25	Arc FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	SELL	22	92¢	$20	0x612b80…
06-07 19:39:18	Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch?	No	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0x51ca93…
06-07 19:38:58	Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xd77a16…
06-05 09:45:58	Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	18	19¢	$3	0x7ba435…
06-04 09:42:03	Arc FDV above $10B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0xcb96a4…
06-03 08:06:43	Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	52¢	$1	0x1aae63…
06-03 07:19:23	Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x815111…
06-01 03:06:09	Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch?	No	SELL	14	97¢	$14	0x3df2cf…
05-31 12:01:26	Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	22	78¢	$17	0xb593dd…
05-31 02:50:46	Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	81¢	$9	0x2226c8…
05-30 21:37:12	Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xb8152a…
05-30 21:37:03	Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$0	0x64ee3e…
05-30 21:36:56	Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x9ee30a…
05-30 21:36:49	Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x5f77a8…
05-30 21:36:42	Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x8e706a…
05-30 21:36:33	Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x8adf7e…
05-30 17:37:00	Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x536d85…
05-30 16:37:06	Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x1856e6…
05-30 16:27:06	Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xe9ef4a…
05-30 16:03:14	Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	22¢	$5	0xa9d915…
05-28 15:34:35	Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	21	6¢	$1	0xda5b23…
05-28 15:23:09	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	61	73¢	$45	0xef5f01…
05-28 13:46:23	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	27	27¢	$7	0xbe0215…
05-28 06:23:34	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	27¢	$4	0xba859e…
05-27 15:36:42	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	BUY	36	94¢	$34	0x7e5030…
05-27 15:33:45	Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4e296d…
05-27 00:13:59	Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	25	54¢	$14	0xfa0208…
05-26 23:46:38	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	69	75¢	$52	0x8db87c…
05-26 21:21:19	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	24	94¢	$23	0x1700dd…
05-26 04:26:39	Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	5¢	$1	0xafad1a…
05-26 02:17:44	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xdbbb64…
05-25 13:28:32	Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0xc41755…
05-25 05:02:26	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30?	No	SELL	62	87¢	$54	0xc68fd6…
05-25 01:59:33	Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	21	92¢	$19	0x9cf571…
05-24 19:00:03	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0xd1c079…
05-24 14:39:34	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	24	75¢	$18	0xc55a80…
05-24 14:23:50	Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x19ee3b…
05-24 12:52:28	Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xc2db05…
05-24 11:51:16	Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	30¢	$8	0x4fe937…
05-24 11:34:18	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xdb09b6…
05-24 11:19:41	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	25¢	$8	0x67cebc…
05-24 10:40:53	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30?	No	SELL	13	87¢	$11	0x3092f5…
05-24 10:39:00	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xe3bc5a…
05-24 09:36:43	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	25	64¢	$16	0x0e948b…
05-24 09:09:27	Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x117b63…
05-24 09:07:00	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	21	85¢	$18	0x1f1e7d…
05-24 08:29:14	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	21	94¢	$20	0x3c29f5…
05-24 04:27:40	Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	7¢	$3	0x5832c8…
05-23 16:33:23	Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x5ca680…
05-23 09:49:41	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xebf91c…
05-23 09:49:41	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x7a3985…
05-23 09:49:38	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x22d79c…
05-23 09:49:36	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xc26fa5…
05-23 09:49:36	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x8dc13f…
05-23 09:35:36	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x52140f…
05-23 06:27:55	Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	21	95¢	$20	0x50a76c…
05-23 01:36:11	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x708b49…
05-23 01:36:11	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x3710cc…
05-23 01:36:09	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xdcc1ec…
05-23 01:36:09	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x3d05cb…
05-23 01:36:08	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xf04061…
05-23 01:18:46	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xdf83c0…
05-23 01:18:36	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xe833ee…
05-23 01:18:36	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x90c6e5…
05-23 01:18:36	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x3a6c75…
05-23 01:18:34	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xf94e77…
05-22 06:00:37	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	95	14¢	$13	0xae2bf2…
05-22 04:54:44	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30?	No	SELL	27	88¢	$23	0xa6bac9…
05-22 04:51:19	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xaf5401…
05-22 04:11:39	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	57	8¢	$5	0x06f901…
05-22 03:59:23	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	45	95¢	$42	0xeb9d9c…
05-22 02:30:02	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x38665a…
05-21 23:29:19	Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0x80d498…
05-21 23:04:55	Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	54¢	$13	0xaf56ba…
05-21 21:20:17	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	27	15¢	$4	0x148327…
05-21 07:25:43	Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0xc59aa0…
05-21 03:27:08	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xad74ce…
05-21 03:27:06	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x2984d3…
05-21 03:27:04	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x7dece4…
05-21 03:27:01	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xf08a8b…
05-21 03:27:01	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xa2a8bd…
05-21 02:52:10	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xfd0f6a…
05-21 02:52:06	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x082294…
05-21 02:52:04	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x7846ef…
05-21 02:52:03	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xb2ca54…
05-21 02:52:03	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x906f63…
05-20 03:23:11	Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x68882c…
05-19 22:23:40	Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	37	95¢	$35	0x49b64e…
05-18 20:27:36	Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xba6499…
05-18 14:07:38	Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	21	79¢	$17	0x80f580…
05-08 19:01:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	300	94¢	$281	0x1a0002…
05-07 01:50:47	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 Week of May 4 2026?	No	SELL	15	25¢	$4	0x4360ac…
05-07 01:49:02	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 Week of May 4 2026?	No	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x956c8e…
05-06 00:36:02	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	25	86¢	$22	0x4f3b86…
05-05 04:39:36	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x126ec8…
04-14 15:01:33	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	No	SELL	39	33¢	$13	0x8f962d…
04-14 14:21:55	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x0ab249…