Frizzy-Sinuosity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.64K

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

67.1%

Resolved

521

Trades

3,143

lifetime

Volume

$49.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$501

7 positions

First seen

2026-05-30

last 11-05 04:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 93 days

Categories

Politics

61% 48% -$754

Other

33% 65% -$501

Tech

3% 50% -$261

Sports

2% 17% -$207

Crypto

1% 67% +$80

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 195 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota be between 2,750,000 and 2,900,000?	Yes	+529	$492	86¢	$455	-$37	11-05 04:50
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	+200	$28	10¢	$19	-$9	10-27 17:31
will clavicular wear a yarmulke in 2026 20260710172344899	No	+25	-$12	57¢	$14	+$26	07-10 18:27
will clavicular wear a yarmulke in 2026 20260710172344899	Yes	+25	$15	42¢	$11	-$5	07-10 17:57
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	+100	$3	2¢	$1	-$2	10-31 08:13
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	No	+1	$0	92¢	$1	+$0	11-02 11:08
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	Yes	+0	-$1	59¢	$0	+$1	11-02 06:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	22	$1.5K	1,525	1,525	+0	open	—	11-02 11:38
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	22	$1.4K	800	800	+0	Yes	+$152	06-18 20:08
taylor travis divorce in 2026 20260706221307677	20	$1.4K	809	809	+0	open	—	07-11 06:05
will trump praise elon musk by july 31 20260626214328040	20	$1.3K	707	707	+0	Yes	+$77	07-07 01:19
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	8	$1.3K	667	667	+0	Yes	+$72	06-21 11:31
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	34	$1.3K	778	778	+0	No	+$127	07-02 22:18
will jason kelce be a groomsman at taylor swifts wedding 20260630160118470	16	$1.2K	980	577	+403	Yes	+$27	07-04 22:02
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	32	$1.1K	973	973	+0	No	+$28	07-14 22:59
iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	65	$1.1K	1,848	1,143	+704	Yes	-$227	07-13 18:49
will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 13 2026 20260630182730891	10	$999	509	509	+0	Yes	+$18	07-13 14:23
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	82	$884	919	919	+0	Yes	-$94	07-07 19:53
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	23	$797	3,248	3,248	+0	Yes	+$19	07-20 00:06
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	21	$793	1,487	1,487	+0	Yes	-$432	07-13 15:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	20	$777	823	70	+753	Yes	+$105	06-17 04:52
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	29	$738	1,356	1,206	+150	No	+$54	10-25 23:21
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	22	$715	847	505	+341	Yes	-$119	07-20 15:58
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	14	$674	1,631	1,631	+0	Yes	+$31	07-28 01:02
will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 12 2026 20260630182730890	18	$648	467	367	+100	Yes	+$77	07-12 23:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	19	$593	1,089	304	+785	No	+$125	07-29 05:19
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	29	$530	2,425	2,415	+10	Yes	-$14	07-25 09:41
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	18	$499	712	475	+237	No	-$277	07-23 23:46
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota be between 2,750,000 and 2,900,000?	1	$492	529	0	+529	open	—	11-05 04:50
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	30	$471	409	182	+227	No	+$89	06-03 21:47
will epic games valuation hit low 9pt5 by july 31 20260629184732971	9	$470	251	251	+0	No	+$13	07-20 13:44
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	5	$410	288	288	+0	No	+$16	10-23 18:19
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $30?	4	$408	205	205	+0	Yes	+$2	06-01 02:20
will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 26 2026 20260630182730904	4	$404	232	232	+0	Yes	+$56	07-26 15:44
will kai or speed die to a creeper 20260806175301183	15	$399	216	216	+0	Yes	+$31	08-08 16:25
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	26	$397	334	324	+10	Yes	+$84	07-01 21:07
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	7	$388	400	300	+100	Karmine Corp	+$24	10-23 20:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 04:50:12	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota be between 2,750,000 and 2,900,000?	Yes	BUY	529	93¢	$492	0xa3abb5…
11-04 18:34:00	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	92¢	$44	0x1775d8…
11-04 13:55:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xc19241…
11-04 09:41:42	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x68bbcf…
11-04 09:40:34	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0xb69492…
11-04 09:02:42	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x2edbcf…
11-04 07:57:42	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	83¢	$35	0x58d17a…
11-04 07:57:15	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	64	39¢	$25	0x2b46ac…
11-04 07:45:16	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xd41afe…
11-04 06:29:24	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	64	41¢	$26	0x54b86d…
11-04 06:12:52	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x5a7955…
11-04 01:09:00	Will the Republican Party hold 48 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0xc1c451…
11-04 00:46:42	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	BUY	4	38¢	$1	0x0322ab…
11-04 00:46:04	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0xf60251…
11-04 00:34:30	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0x07e88e…
11-04 00:32:46	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x004c23…
11-04 00:32:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x4e93b9…
11-04 00:30:18	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	45	6¢	$3	0x791199…
11-04 00:13:30	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x0427ea…
11-03 23:59:37	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xcf50d9…
11-03 23:57:58	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x4dfc8b…
11-03 23:57:49	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x1ef3fa…
11-03 23:55:49	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x128982…
11-03 23:30:19	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x2d83eb…
11-03 23:18:46	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x74550e…
11-03 23:03:51	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x33e108…
11-03 21:35:55	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	65¢	$15	0x025a70…
11-03 18:54:06	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Ohio?	Yes	SELL	185	1¢	$1	0xdc1acb…
11-03 18:28:40	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	27	75¢	$21	0x7e1556…
11-03 18:28:24	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xf45ae9…
11-03 18:22:06	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	67	75¢	$50	0x02c41c…
11-03 18:16:39	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Ohio?	Yes	SELL	835	1¢	$5	0x004d47…
11-03 16:21:03	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Ohio?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0xf66007…
11-03 15:59:01	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Ohio?	Yes	SELL	27	1¢	$0	0xfe79aa…
11-02 11:39:07	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24	72¢	$17	0x34ee87…
11-02 11:38:16	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	50	35¢	$17	0x4d34f8…
11-02 11:36:48	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	90	72¢	$65	0xa4c26f…
11-02 11:08:25	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$0	0x303eaa…
11-02 06:26:24	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	SELL	399	1¢	$4	0x5e456a…
11-02 06:16:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xfcac7e…
11-02 06:15:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x1c5c95…
11-02 06:15:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	Yes	SELL	17	60¢	$10	0x75d50e…
11-02 06:15:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	Yes	SELL	17	60¢	$10	0x66e49b…
11-02 06:13:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0xbab926…
11-02 01:20:22	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	SELL	111	1¢	$1	0xf3f2a8…
11-02 00:47:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x6964c9…
11-02 00:09:31	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x9ab97a…
11-01 19:54:06	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the November meeting?	Yes	SELL	75	80¢	$60	0x2d0726…
11-01 18:13:36	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	55	53¢	$29	0x14daab…
11-01 17:14:55	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x0fe3cb…
11-01 17:08:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xb9e750…
11-01 16:55:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xc3c9c1…
11-01 16:47:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x7d5376…
11-01 16:45:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	66¢	$26	0xdaf380…
11-01 16:22:30	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x570d07…
11-01 16:00:18	Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xecd4e8…
11-01 15:36:24	will anthropic have the best ai agent at the end of january 2027	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x20f566…
11-01 15:33:52	will anthropic have the best ai model on livebench coding at the end of december 2026	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x8d2c27…
11-01 12:37:52	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0xcdf95f…
11-01 07:33:12	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x429910…
11-01 07:00:57	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xff27bf…
11-01 05:01:22	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0x88ddd4…
11-01 04:30:34	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	29¢	$20	0xc1b717…
11-01 03:49:48	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0xaef102…
11-01 02:03:18	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	86	2¢	$2	0x4fb895…
11-01 01:25:51	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x39fa31…
11-01 01:22:54	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x02b031…
11-01 01:19:37	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xcd88bc…
11-01 01:18:13	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0xe92487…
11-01 01:12:24	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xc5235f…
11-01 01:04:04	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0x2af3a7…
11-01 00:59:52	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xd29891…
11-01 00:31:28	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xfe3eae…
10-31 23:57:39	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x66e89a…
10-31 23:53:22	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xd5a280…
10-31 23:48:03	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x639e8c…
10-31 23:40:22	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	22	40¢	$9	0x8b7c01…
10-31 20:50:42	Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0xfa50bd…
10-31 18:07:52	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0x726d81…
10-31 17:22:18	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be less than $3.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0xde68a5…
10-31 17:15:22	Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x74a5c4…
10-31 16:38:33	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x5dc19b…
10-31 16:24:27	Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$7	0xa404ae…
10-31 12:38:55	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be less than $3.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	364	48¢	$173	0xe9a90e…
10-31 12:38:55	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0xc35d54…
10-31 08:13:34	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0xd11549…
10-31 07:55:31	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x4849c2…
10-31 07:27:51	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0x5fbc47…
10-31 06:29:09	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Ohio?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd7061a…
10-31 03:26:43	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	57	4¢	$2	0x3aedc5…
10-31 02:48:49	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x042aef…
10-31 02:48:40	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	BUY	89	0¢	$0	0xd86e75…
10-31 02:48:39	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x868eea…
10-31 02:48:39	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x4c09ba…
10-31 02:48:25	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x4d0b8c…
10-31 02:48:15	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xf3938e…
10-31 02:47:46	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	BUY	85	0¢	$0	0x0dfa38…
10-31 02:47:12	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x29ee1e…
10-31 02:46:51	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x1a804e…
10-31 02:46:43	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	Yes	BUY	24	0¢	$0	0x449bcb…