Realized P&L
+$25.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.21K
Hit rate
94.7%
Resolved
359
Trades
3,105
lifetime
Volume
$1.15M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$371
Open exposure
$38.9K
20 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 18:20
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 124 days
Categories
Other
53% 75% +$7,705
Politics
38% 85% +$21,899
Crypto
6% 100% +$1,606
Sports
2% 77% -$5,322
Tech
1% 86% -$191
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
55 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +21,079 $19,666 98¢ $20.7K +$1,066 10-25 23:41
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No +5,000 $4,586 97¢ $4.9K +$279 09-04 22:47
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +3,220 $2,853 94¢ $3.0K +$173 10-26 14:39
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +2,921 $2,360 100¢ $2.9K +$561 10-27 20:54
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +3,000 $2,830 94¢ $2.8K +$5 10-27 06:27
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +1,500 $1,450 98¢ $1.5K +$20 10-14 18:41
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +700 $644 94¢ $654 +$10 10-17 14:21
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +500 $499 100¢ $500 +$0 10-27 18:55
No one announced as next James Bond? No +600 $446 78¢ $471 +$25 10-16 15:30
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +390 $363 97¢ $379 +$15 06-03 07:54
viktor orban arrested by december 31 20260708001041551 No +337 $35 86¢ $289 +$253 10-28 18:20
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +386 $275 50¢ $191 -$84 10-27 20:03
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +200 $184 71¢ $142 -$42 09-14 07:15
Plague pandemic in 2026? No +100 $96 98¢ $98 +$2 10-08 06:39
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +100 $84 97¢ $97 +$12 09-17 18:54
New pandemic in 2026? No +100 $95 97¢ $97 +$2 10-12 00:06
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No +100 $85 81¢ $81 -$4 10-27 18:08
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Yes +400 $140 16¢ $62 -$78 09-08 17:36
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +50 $22 66¢ $33 +$12 06-21 13:31
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more? Yes +26 $19 2¢ $1 -$19 10-25 12:50