Realized P&L
+$231
Unrealized P&L
-$47
Hit rate
55.6%
Resolved
120
Trades
192
lifetime
Volume
$2.26K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$206
20 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 22:25
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 49 days
Categories
Other
69% 39% +$34
Politics
23% 50% +$62
Sports
7% 57% +$135
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
29 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +67 $40 57¢ $38 -$2 10-10 14:05
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +37 $30 84¢ $31 +$1 09-13 16:35
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? No +28 $20 70¢ $20 $0 10-15 14:56
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +42 $10 36¢ $15 +$5 10-17 14:01
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes +56 $10 22¢ $12 +$2 10-26 09:51
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +26 $10 40¢ $10 +$0 10-11 17:26
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? Yes +75 $15 12¢ $9 -$6 10-17 14:03
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +83 $10 11¢ $9 -$1 10-27 13:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? No +20 $10 46¢ $9 -$1 08-29 18:01
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +27 $10 32¢ $9 -$1 10-11 11:50
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +48 $10 16¢ $8 -$2 10-26 10:07
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +27 $10 28¢ $7 -$3 10-17 16:22
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes +30 $10 24¢ $7 -$3 10-12 20:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +50 $15 12¢ $6 -$9 08-30 16:47
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +100 $3 6¢ $6 +$2 10-27 15:01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes +26 $10 16¢ $4 -$6 10-27 13:57
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +29 $5 8¢ $2 -$2 07-15 19:20
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +119 $5 1¢ $1 -$4 07-12 13:37
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? Yes +71 $10 2¢ $1 -$9 10-19 20:28
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Yes +20 $10 2¢ $0 -$10 10-10 13:58