Celebrated-Competence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$236

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

151

lifetime

Volume

$58.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$384

Open exposure

$90

1 position

First seen

2026-04-19

last 06-01 21:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

66% 100% +$231

Other

21% 100% +$2

Tech

8% — —

Crypto

5% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	Yes		+168	$96	54¢	$90	$-6	06-01 21:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	3	$5.1K	2,562	2,562	+0	open	—	05-13 10:50
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	2	$4.2K	4,280	0	+4,280	open	—	04-20 17:33
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	1	$3.7K	3,775	0	+3,775	open	—	04-21 11:31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	2	$3.7K	3,714	0	+3,714	open	—	04-24 10:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$3.3K	3,409	0	+3,409	open	—	04-26 19:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	5	$3.2K	3,331	0	+3,331	No	+$151	05-08 23:52
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	6	$3.1K	3,010	1,703	+1,307	open	—	05-16 15:38
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6?	1	$2.8K	2,803	0	+2,803	Yes	+$3	05-06 11:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$2.5K	2,533	0	+2,533	No	+$33	05-03 22:35
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	3	$2.4K	1,365	1,365	+0	open	—	05-22 22:30
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$2.1K	1,073	1,073	+0	open	—	05-15 15:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	3	$2.0K	2,508	0	+2,508	open	—	05-22 22:30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$2.0K	1,064	1,064	+0	open	—	05-15 17:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$1.6K	1,702	0	+1,702	open	—	05-11 10:49
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$1.4K	1,761	1,761	+0	open	—	05-16 09:55
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 Week of April 27 2026?	2	$1.2K	1,224	0	+1,224	open	—	05-01 08:02
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	3	$1.0K	549	549	+0	open	—	05-21 14:50
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	1	$1000	1,025	0	+1,025	No	+$25	05-07 21:47
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	1	$1000	1,020	0	+1,020	open	—	04-19 22:39
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	1	$1000	1,007	0	+1,007	open	—	04-23 21:44
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud	2	$800	828	0	+828	open	—	05-17 16:22
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	3	$745	393	393	+0	open	—	05-11 11:17
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	7	$680	397	397	+0	open	—	04-21 19:48
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	4	$591	691	63	+628	open	—	04-22 22:41
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	4	$587	320	320	+0	open	—	05-21 14:51
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$500	522	0	+522	No	+$22	05-02 22:58
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	5	$494	610	252	+358	open	—	04-28 15:47
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$491	383	383	+0	open	—	05-11 10:44
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	1	$450	453	0	+453	open	—	05-31 23:54
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$400	437	0	+437	open	—	04-26 19:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 21:13:19	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	63	100¢	$63	0xb57bd2…
06-01 21:13:01	Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0x934842…
06-01 21:12:38	Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	172	57¢	$98	0x3b0f16…
06-01 21:09:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	148	100¢	$148	0xc432be…
06-01 00:41:45	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	68¢	$101	0xe20534…
06-01 00:41:24	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	No	SELL	109	100¢	$109	0x620fe6…
06-01 00:40:58	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	31¢	$3	0x9f070b…
06-01 00:37:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xe635ee…
06-01 00:36:25	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	66¢	$12	0xb5b7bd…
06-01 00:05:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x3ae227…
05-31 23:54:28	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	BUY	453	99¢	$450	0x094b98…
05-23 11:06:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	453	66¢	$300	0x481fe7…
05-22 22:30:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	214	0¢	$1	0x853aa7…
05-22 22:30:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,460	82¢	$1,200	0x925b6f…
05-22 22:30:13	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	1,365	91¢	$1,247	0x4f58f6…
05-21 14:51:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	369	81¢	$300	0x32049e…
05-21 14:51:39	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	320	94¢	$302	0x72165b…
05-21 14:50:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	679	81¢	$550	0x774b3c…
05-21 14:50:01	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	549	96¢	$526	0x942ce2…
05-21 14:48:47	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0x41b868…
05-19 22:04:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	214	52¢	$111	0x4ea4a5…
05-17 16:22:28	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud	Jannik Sinner	BUY	707	99¢	$700	0x1e8eb0…
05-17 15:37:31	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud	Jannik Sinner	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x4eedf3…
05-17 12:38:03	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	308	49¢	$150	0x947fad…
05-16 15:38:40	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	No	BUY	1,307	23¢	$300	0x7b44ab…
05-16 15:38:17	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	Yes	SELL	1,703	78¢	$1,329	0x674f3f…
05-16 14:53:22	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	Yes	BUY	445	90¢	$400	0x6686bf…
05-16 14:51:44	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	Yes	BUY	1,016	89¢	$900	0x1542d2…
05-16 14:16:58	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	Jannik Sinner	BUY	218	92¢	$200	0xd5a7f0…
05-16 14:07:26	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	Yes	BUY	222	83¢	$184	0x1e521b…
05-16 14:04:54	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	Yes	BUY	21	75¢	$16	0x0c47c5…
05-16 09:55:26	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1,641	3¢	$47	0xd24ad4…
05-16 09:37:19	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	63	82¢	$52	0xf089ba…
05-16 09:19:39	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	120	3¢	$4	0x2f7f81…
05-15 17:10:26	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	1,140	88¢	$1,000	0x913bd4…
05-15 17:10:03	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	1,064	95¢	$1,011	0x4e4c6e…
05-15 15:50:01	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	53	48¢	$25	0xed4cf8…
05-15 15:44:29	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,331	75¢	$1,000	0x34a570…
05-15 15:44:17	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1,073	100¢	$1,071	0x940116…
05-15 15:28:32	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	Jannik Sinner	BUY	44	91¢	$40	0x2053b9…
05-15 15:19:45	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	124	80¢	$100	0x3a5d84…
05-15 11:50:23	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	306	82¢	$251	0x079536…
05-15 11:35:38	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0x28e60b…
05-14 12:43:05	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0x689586…
05-14 12:42:00	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0xd32117…
05-14 12:37:02	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	62	31¢	$19	0x42837c…
05-14 12:02:39	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0x512f0d…
05-14 10:56:21	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xa04f7b…
05-14 07:56:59	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	269	30¢	$82	0xe3b072…
05-14 05:07:00	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	46	38¢	$17	0x8c4f5d…
05-14 05:04:01	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	16	36¢	$6	0xc5bd2d…
05-13 19:46:55	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	BUY	207	97¢	$200	0xae3244…
05-13 17:57:06	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x669c96…
05-13 17:20:03	Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0xc40fd0…
05-13 17:16:00	Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x1cac3b…
05-13 17:14:05	Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x9f3e12…
05-13 10:59:00	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	327	92¢	$300	0x2ad32d…
05-13 10:58:19	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x10de30…
05-13 10:51:12	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,073	93¢	$1,000	0xf51daa…
05-13 10:50:44	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2,562	100¢	$2,559	0x74a018…
05-13 05:46:13	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	44	49¢	$21	0x255a68…
05-12 19:02:20	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x17faf4…
05-12 18:45:23	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1,064	94¢	$1,000	0x5ae2c9…
05-11 11:17:10	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	393	99¢	$391	0x940cf6…
05-11 10:49:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	1,702	94¢	$1,600	0xa69444…
05-11 10:46:23	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,508	100¢	$2,500	0xcc4ce4…
05-11 10:45:47	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x766c98…
05-11 10:44:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	383	76¢	$291	0xc7f898…
05-08 23:52:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	785	99¢	$780	0x66e8db…
05-08 23:51:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	2,014	99¢	$2,000	0x8909eb…
05-07 21:50:45	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x2c66ab…
05-07 21:50:36	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$45	0xb8bc9c…
05-07 21:47:01	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	No	BUY	1,025	98¢	$1,000	0xa5735d…
05-06 11:36:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	2,803	100¢	$2,800	0x304d5d…
05-06 10:16:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0xa6d268…
05-05 10:53:38	Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Jacob Fearnley	Jacob Fearnley	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x17192d…
05-04 21:48:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	411	73¢	$300	0x822354…
05-04 21:42:10	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	29	72¢	$21	0x928fda…
05-04 11:44:02	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?	No	BUY	301	100¢	$300	0x79e129…
05-04 10:43:08	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0xbaa486…
05-03 22:35:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1,519	99¢	$1,500	0x7b9df6…
05-03 22:31:36	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xdd5448…
05-03 22:27:50	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x0ad8b7…
05-03 22:26:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x32a475…
05-03 22:24:12	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0xf8ae61…
05-03 12:53:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1,014	99¢	$1,000	0xb0ac8b…
05-03 09:13:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x2132fb…
05-02 22:58:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	313	96¢	$300	0xacca88…
05-02 22:57:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x8ba462…
05-02 22:40:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	208	96¢	$200	0x25d5df…
05-02 22:18:42	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x91808c…
05-01 08:02:04	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	1,013	99¢	$1,000	0x6802cc…
04-30 21:32:10	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x053b9c…
04-30 21:22:06	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x0aa5fc…
04-30 21:19:22	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xed5ce3…
04-30 20:21:20	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x1fc767…
04-29 21:28:54	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xf2a3b6…
04-28 23:11:00	James Comey arrested by April 28?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x34d976…
04-28 21:59:50	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	248	5¢	$12	0xca6a42…
04-28 15:47:02	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	350	95¢	$332	0x1b9ae5…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	52	$11.1M	19,383	06-03 19:03
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	50	$468.2K	8,090	05-31 23:31
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	50	$41.3K	4,002	06-01 17:01
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	47	$189.2K	18,048	06-04 12:14
Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf	47	$15.5K	584	06-01 02:30
Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e	43	$415.4K	6,789	06-03 21:33
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	42	$124.5K	8,490	06-01 04:52
Wilted-Burden-Survivor 0xd8d5…8935	41	$188.8K	990	06-02 14:52