Sweltering-Warming — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$30

Unrealized P&L

+$37

Hit rate

46.9%

Resolved

Trades

2,611

lifetime

Volume

$17.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$25

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 06-03 21:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

42% 33% $-30

Other

36% 67% $-1

Politics

13% 100% +$1

Sports

9% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 48 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	-210	$-32	6¢	$-12	+$20	06-03 21:25
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	-65	$-24	11¢	$-7	+$17	06-03 21:24
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+7	$7	92¢	$7	+$0	06-01 14:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	7	$824	443	443	+0	open	—	05-02 03:40
btc updown 5m 1776756600	8	$424	214	214	+0	open	—	04-21 07:35
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?	17	$412	206	206	+0	open	—	04-24 04:17
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	24	$350	175	175	+0	open	—	04-28 19:37
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?	17	$311	156	156	+0	open	—	04-22 16:16
btc updown 5m 1776346200	88	$306	163	162	+1	open	—	04-16 13:35
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	17	$303	142	162	-20	open	—	04-27 18:07
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	56	$262	138	138	+0	open	—	04-14 12:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	16	$251	159	159	+0	open	—	04-28 00:23
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 26?	6	$204	103	103	+0	open	—	04-26 18:33
btc updown 5m 1776715200	37	$200	202	7	+195	open	—	04-20 20:04
highest temperature in chicago on april 17 2026 86 87f	3	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-17 22:32
highest temperature in toronto on april 18 2026 11corbelow	4	$198	99	99	+0	open	—	04-17 22:32
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	10	$185	93	93	+0	open	—	04-27 20:14
bitcoin up or down april 15 2026 9am et	7	$168	86	86	+0	open	—	04-15 14:03
btc updown 5m 1776499800	4	$164	168	0	+168	open	—	04-18 08:14
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 60°F or higher on April 27?	9	$158	80	80	+0	open	—	04-27 18:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	18	$152	89	89	+0	open	—	04-08 20:06
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?	7	$147	74	74	+0	open	—	04-28 13:46
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on April 27?	9	$146	74	74	+0	open	—	04-27 14:15
btc updown 15m 1776778200	3	$146	94	94	+0	open	—	04-21 13:43
highest temperature in karachi on april 18 2026 26c	3	$144	72	72	+0	open	—	04-17 22:33
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April?	8	$142	71	71	+0	open	—	04-21 18:51
btc updown 5m 1776625200	5	$139	140	0	+140	open	—	04-19 19:02
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on April 27?	8	$138	70	70	+0	open	—	04-27 21:53
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	58	$137	70	70	+0	open	—	04-14 15:26
btc updown 15m 1776370500	24	$134	110	26	+84	open	—	04-16 20:24
highest temperature in chicago on april 14 2026 58forhigher	8	$130	65	65	+0	open	—	04-14 01:06
btc updown 5m 1775925600	142	$130	71	63	+7	open	—	04-11 16:43
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	21	$129	66	66	+0	open	—	04-20 18:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 21:49:52	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x6ffd26…
06-03 21:29:13	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	93¢	$3	0xde19bb…
06-03 21:28:43	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x3c795b…
06-03 21:28:27	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x936281…
06-03 21:25:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	210	15¢	$32	0x523ff6…
06-03 21:24:43	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	SELL	65	37¢	$24	0xe835fa…
06-03 21:20:25	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	46	97¢	$45	0x790415…
06-01 14:57:40	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$7	0x7ae016…
06-01 10:38:35	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x565ec9…
06-01 07:28:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0x4d837a…
05-31 20:13:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x8489c2…
05-31 20:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xa6e647…
05-31 20:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x3e6f25…
05-31 20:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x9ee912…
05-31 20:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x2855ff…
05-31 20:10:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x809b3a…
05-31 18:03:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xdaa16e…
05-30 17:02:41	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner	Aurora	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x46416a…
05-30 15:28:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xbc74ca…
05-30 15:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x4f7fe4…
05-29 15:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xf4f885…
05-29 15:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x670691…
05-29 15:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x419f1c…
05-29 15:35:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$2	0x5141df…
05-29 14:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x5b3d8f…
05-29 14:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x30d917…
05-29 14:46:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x57fa9a…
05-29 14:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xf93aab…
05-29 14:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xd5c5e8…
05-29 14:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x8f936e…
05-29 14:44:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x38767d…
05-29 14:24:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x19189b…
05-28 14:13:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	18	81¢	$15	0x008376…
05-27 12:36:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x9f3969…
05-27 12:35:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x5aaf60…
05-27 12:35:08	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0xefae7b…
05-26 16:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x8af2e5…
05-26 16:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xe82a9f…
05-26 16:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe03e26…
05-26 16:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xd2c53c…
05-26 16:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x53c674…
05-26 16:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x736d64…
05-26 15:24:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x990eda…
05-26 15:23:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd0a51c…
05-26 13:49:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xd964c5…
05-26 10:12:36	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	Team Liquid	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x683cea…
05-24 14:48:34	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xa9a663…
05-24 14:37:59	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd84322…
05-24 14:37:31	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0x57d517…
05-24 14:36:53	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0x49fbaf…
05-24 01:48:13	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Knicks	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xd6929a…
05-23 03:09:26	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xdb1fba…
05-22 19:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x24264d…
05-22 19:32:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfb82da…
05-22 19:32:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x8869c3…
05-22 19:00:11	Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x4d3ea7…
05-22 18:48:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x2a5c63…
05-22 18:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xee60ca…
05-22 18:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x925e1b…
05-22 18:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x9096c2…
05-22 18:48:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x7affd9…
05-22 18:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xe06129…
05-22 18:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xbb3d36…
05-22 18:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x8aef10…
05-22 18:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x266272…
05-22 18:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x0ac318…
05-22 18:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xc012ed…
05-22 18:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x938d93…
05-22 18:48:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xc505cb…
05-22 18:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xda57cb…
05-22 18:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xa1e61f…
05-22 18:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x5803e7…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xefb291…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xed6ab7…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xed2d1d…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xc84a27…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xba35bb…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xb13220…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xa72ce0…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xa13c79…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xa01578…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x6c5c3c…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x6b2c01…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x4fc2ac…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x43f062…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x42e808…
05-22 18:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x2e036b…
05-22 18:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x444b70…
05-22 18:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x8bafd2…
05-22 18:47:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x58ad34…
05-22 18:47:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x3cd6ac…
05-22 18:47:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xebca43…
05-22 18:47:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xb8914b…
05-22 18:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xd5c887…
05-22 18:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xa66d0d…
05-22 18:47:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xdc9eed…
05-22 18:47:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x5a6582…
05-22 18:47:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xb04592…
05-22 18:47:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xb5b81e…
05-22 12:28:55	Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Xtreme Gaming	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x98bb75…