Realized P&L
+$2
Unrealized P&L
-$81
Hit rate
55.2%
Resolved
21
Trades
634
lifetime
Volume
$12.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$19
Open exposure
$954
16 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-01 00:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Other
79% 44% +$16
Politics
15% 0% $-5
Tech
3%
Crypto
1% 0% $-0
Pop-Culture
1%
Sports
1% 0% $-8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No -317 $-234 74¢ $-234 +$0 06-09 19:35
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No +247 $159 66¢ $164 +$5 06-22 21:28
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No -112 $-102 94¢ $-106 $-4 05-30 19:05
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? No +235 $64 38¢ $89 +$25 06-25 13:57
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No -209 $-104 36¢ $-74 +$29 06-04 21:35
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31? No -70 $-68 98¢ $-69 $-1 06-13 10:16
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No -72 $-63 88¢ $-63 +$0 05-30 13:44
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? No -68 $-55 84¢ $-57 $-3 06-12 01:41
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +107 $28 27¢ $29 +$1 06-30 11:00
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? No +125 $27 18¢ $22 $-5 06-30 23:17
Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? No -48 $-13 43¢ $-21 $-7 06-08 07:39
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI +109 $23 $10 $-13 06-13 21:08
Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No -83 $-5 $-8 $-3 06-24 17:54
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No -8 $-11 91¢ $-7 +$4 06-25 11:16
Pro Football: A.J. Brown to join Patriots by regular season start? No -5 $-2 12¢ $-1 +$1 06-07 09:56
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No +90 $111 $0 $-111 06-27 21:43