Realized P&L
+$2
Unrealized P&L
+$64
Hit rate
55.2%
Resolved
21
Trades
800
lifetime
Volume
$14.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$1.08K
15 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 18:25
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Other
83% 44% +$16
Politics
12% 0% $-5
Tech
2%
Crypto
1% 0% $-0
Pop-Culture
1%
Sports
0% 0% $-8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
75 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No -317 $-234 83¢ $-263 $-29 06-09 19:35
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No +247 $159 80¢ $199 +$40 06-22 21:28
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? No +337 $74 39¢ $131 +$57 07-07 19:42
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No -112 $-102 97¢ $-108 $-7 05-30 19:05
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No -209 $-104 46¢ $-97 +$6 06-04 21:35
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31? No -70 $-68 93¢ $-65 +$3 06-13 10:16
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No -72 $-63 89¢ $-64 $-1 05-30 13:44
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? No -68 $-55 85¢ $-58 $-3 06-12 01:41
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? No +170 $25 18¢ $31 +$6 07-12 00:49
Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? No -48 $-13 46¢ $-22 $-9 06-08 07:39
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI +109 $23 15¢ $16 $-7 06-13 21:08
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No +19 $13 80¢ $15 +$2 07-20 18:25
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No -8 $-11 94¢ $-7 +$4 06-25 11:16
Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No -83 $-5 $-4 +$1 06-24 17:54
Pro Football: A.J. Brown to join Patriots by regular season start? No -5 $-2 16¢ $-1 +$1 06-07 09:56