Big-Repair — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$48

Unrealized P&L

-$117

Hit rate

67.4%

Resolved

262

Trades

2,168

lifetime

Volume

$42.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$674

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 03:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 114 days

Categories

Other

83% 55% +$269

Politics

7% 53% -$63

Crypto

5% 0% -$46

Tech

3% 33% -$129

Sports

2% 40% -$5

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	-302	-$253	95¢	$-288	-$35	06-09 19:35
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	-228	-$130	96¢	$-218	-$88	10-01 23:16
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+592	$104	18¢	$104	$0	10-19 00:02
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	No	+79	$55	77¢	$61	+$6	10-28 00:10
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	09-18 21:38
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+1	$1	94¢	$1	+$0	09-16 18:26
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	+1	$1	88¢	$1	+$0	09-16 18:24
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+1	$1	77¢	$1	$0	09-09 22:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will russia enter malokaterynivka by december 31 2026	17	$820	444	444	+0	Yes	+$6	09-27 00:15
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	2	$798	408	408	+0	No	-$2	01-23 17:40
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	8	$642	407	407	+0	open	—	08-28 02:16
will russia capture viroliubivka by march 31	2	$557	283	283	+0	No	+$6	03-31 23:36
will city protocol launch a token by december 31 2026	57	$550	570	570	+0	open	—	10-22 22:29
will russia capture all of drobysheve by march 31	4	$475	361	127	+235	No	+$9	03-31 00:49
will rebels capture gao by december 31 20260706144440995	20	$474	319	319	+0	open	—	09-27 20:51
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	5	$468	294	294	+0	Yes	+$68	02-25 11:18
Linera listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE?	9	$399	239	239	-0	open	—	09-29 11:20
Linera listed on Binance within 30 days of TGE?	10	$398	237	237	+0	open	—	10-06 03:43
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	15	$393	428	428	+0	open	—	09-26 14:39
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	33	$392	1,203	1,203	+0	open	—	09-26 14:44
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	4	$387	0	398	-398	No	-$12	05-26 12:22
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	6	$386	180	409	-228	open	—	10-01 23:16
will russia capture all of ternuvate by december 31 2026	13	$369	240	240	+0	open	—	07-02 19:05
will russia capture all of rodynske by march 31	4	$363	338	338	+0	Yes	+$23	02-16 11:15
will revoluts valuation hit low 95b by august 31 20260731174621604	11	$352	241	241	+0	No	+$90	08-25 21:36
SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?	9	$344	273	148	+125	open	—	10-22 23:27
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	17	$325	373	373	+0	No	+$123	07-17 16:42
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	30	$324	497	497	-0	open	—	10-17 00:27
will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	11	$324	212	212	+0	No	+$23	07-13 20:20
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	3	$313	75	377	-302	open	—	06-09 19:35
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?	41	$303	710	710	+0	open	—	10-21 22:25
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	3	$302	0	505	-505	No	-$203	01-16 22:37
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$302	153	153	+0	Yes	$0	04-22 23:30
Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by October 31, 2026?	9	$290	169	169	+0	open	—	10-24 15:38
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by january 31 2026 147	2	$286	150	150	+0	No	+$8	01-30 18:44
will neuralinks valuation hit high 100b by december 31	2	$275	160	160	+0	open	—	08-04 00:55
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?	4	$270	145	145	+0	No	-$1	04-15 19:56
will titan launch a token by december 31 2027	23	$264	432	432	+0	open	—	10-19 01:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 03:37:16	Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	No	SELL	34	69¢	$23	0x3e5695…
10-29 03:36:55	Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	No	SELL	43	70¢	$30	0x7f79be…
10-29 03:36:14	Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	No	SELL	17	71¢	$12	0xb11c08…
10-29 02:23:29	Will "The Tuners" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x666f03…
10-28 23:55:55	Will none of the listed platforms list tokenized stocks in the US by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x99289c…
10-28 23:50:41	Tokenized stocks available on Coinbase by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$38	0x2e1d28…
10-28 23:34:41	Will "Meeting Your Maker" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x051691…
10-28 23:19:35	Will "Runway" from The Devil Wears Prada 2 be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x084246…
10-28 23:07:40	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0x44e5da…
10-28 23:07:26	Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	69	73¢	$50	0x6d7449…
10-28 21:32:29	Will "Water Cooler" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	35	42¢	$15	0x9c18a3…
10-28 21:30:59	Will "A Derailment" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x50c17d…
10-28 21:30:44	Will "A Derailment" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	145	31¢	$45	0x9abadd…
10-28 21:29:20	Will "The Tuners" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x35ae7a…
10-28 20:44:46	Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	120	48¢	$58	0x07a13b…
10-28 17:15:23	Will Islam Makhachev retire from the UFC by the end of 2027?	No	SELL	130	83¢	$108	0x12312a…
10-28 16:43:35	Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xdb6cfb…
10-28 16:01:35	Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	No	BUY	74	54¢	$40	0x85dabb…
10-28 14:34:53	Will Medline (MDLN) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	56	93¢	$52	0x20097f…
10-28 12:32:10	Will Okta (OKTA) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	82	49¢	$40	0x24cdc9…
10-28 11:56:04	Will Medline (MDLN) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xd02634…
10-28 11:55:02	Will Credo Technology (CRDO) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	49	82¢	$40	0x934f4d…
10-28 11:29:35	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	85	43¢	$37	0xe18a6f…
10-28 11:07:41	Will "Sense and Sensibility" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	120	68¢	$82	0x411bd6…
10-28 02:44:41	Will AP call US House control by November 4, 11:59 PM?	No	SELL	143	13¢	$19	0x812fc9…
10-28 02:26:23	Muse Charm released by December 15, 2026?	No	SELL	211	25¢	$54	0x32f59f…
10-28 00:10:50	Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	79	70¢	$55	0x952cee…
10-27 23:48:18	Will Lindsey Vonn rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	No	SELL	15	66¢	$10	0xdab40d…
10-27 23:46:23	CoreWeave downgraded by Moody's or S&P by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	49	67¢	$33	0x2a31c0…
10-27 23:45:57	Will Troy Jackson underperform Kamala in Maine?	No	SELL	137	19¢	$26	0x9d8993…
10-27 23:38:08	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	109	64¢	$69	0x327e49…
10-27 22:42:47	Will "The End of Oak Street" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	17	83¢	$14	0xeded55…
10-27 21:30:45	exponential time hypothesis disproof confirmed by december 31 2026	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x84a738…
10-27 21:30:00	exponential time hypothesis disproof confirmed by december 31 2026	No	BUY	80	38¢	$30	0x3bd7b9…
10-27 18:08:26	Will "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0x578f3e…
10-27 18:04:48	Will "Sense and Sensibility" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	120	46¢	$55	0x035ae3…
10-27 10:19:50	Will "The End of Oak Street" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xd29c7d…
10-27 00:06:02	Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?	No	BUY	106	9¢	$10	0xb33255…
10-27 00:05:32	Anthropic IPO: Closing Price above IPO Price on First Day?	No	BUY	92	11¢	$10	0xabafb3…
10-26 23:56:27	Will Oliver Tree rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026?	No	BUY	0	26¢	$0	0xdb98b4…
10-26 23:56:09	Will Oliver Tree rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026?	No	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x1abe39…
10-26 23:54:53	Will Oliver Tree rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026?	No	BUY	157	25¢	$40	0x7b2ea1…
10-26 23:54:20	Will Lindsey Graham rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026?	No	BUY	77	62¢	$48	0x6c79ca…
10-26 23:45:17	Will Lindsey Vonn rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	No	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0x9d91be…
10-26 22:59:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	119	48¢	$57	0x1e4e1d…
10-26 21:04:05	Will "Wild Horse Nine" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	89	84¢	$75	0x35d2b1…
10-26 20:40:29	Will "Meeting Your Maker" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x33e92a…
10-26 20:21:48	Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 8.10 ft MLLW or more?	No	SELL	44	13¢	$6	0xb3ed0b…
10-26 20:07:02	Will Faber announce it will resume sales of Sally Rooney's books in the UK by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x32ddfb…
10-26 19:53:42	Will "Your God is Sleeping" from Behemoth! be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	74	87¢	$64	0xc8178c…
10-26 16:22:23	CoreWeave downgraded by Moody's or S&P by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	49	66¢	$32	0xed047d…
10-26 15:36:18	Will RISEx launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0x3b38f0…
10-26 13:32:57	Will "Hoppers" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x9c5ad8…
10-26 13:32:26	Will "Forgotten Island" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0xf4d620…
10-26 12:06:36	CoreWeave downgraded by Moody's or S&P by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	97	51¢	$50	0xf4171f…
10-26 01:38:12	Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x7520fb…
10-26 00:31:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x41004e…
10-26 00:07:33	Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xcaf82b…
10-25 21:42:48	Will Faber announce it will resume sales of Sally Rooney's books in the UK by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	59	39¢	$23	0xb0a2ef…
10-25 21:36:09	Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	86	28¢	$24	0xbea47e…
10-25 21:26:48	Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0xf1566d…
10-25 19:12:06	Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2028?	No	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xe5caa6…
10-25 19:03:17	Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 8.10 ft MLLW or more?	No	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x5ddf20…
10-25 18:56:06	Will "Meeting Your Maker" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0xb433a1…
10-25 18:48:48	Will "Oh Whale" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	112	49¢	$55	0x89fe04…
10-25 15:52:44	Will "Rose" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	110	50¢	$55	0xb9dd85…
10-25 15:40:54	Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	61	54¢	$33	0xe69f72…
10-25 13:55:36	Will "Water Cooler" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0x01b2fb…
10-25 12:10:12	Will "Wild Horse Nine" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	89	68¢	$60	0xbaab64…
10-25 11:49:30	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	222	24¢	$53	0x1396ec…
10-25 03:23:35	Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 8.10 ft MLLW or more?	No	SELL	22	60¢	$13	0xea69c5…
10-25 03:17:42	Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 8.10 ft MLLW or more?	No	SELL	29	63¢	$18	0x23aaa0…
10-25 03:10:06	Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xcc4380…
10-25 02:29:32	Will Captain America (Sam Wilson) die in Avengers: Doomsday?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x2db21c…
10-25 02:12:05	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	222	9¢	$20	0x31cd47…
10-24 20:44:11	Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?	No	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x31b517…
10-24 20:38:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x4b6c65…
10-24 20:36:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xc0e906…
10-24 18:31:23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x0099c1…
10-24 16:34:44	Will Flop launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	94	54¢	$51	0x6474a5…
10-24 15:38:23	Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	94¢	$30	0x5be9ac…
10-23 20:53:29	Muse Charm released by December 15, 2026?	No	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0xd5ee38…
10-22 23:51:53	Will "Ink" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	85	85¢	$72	0xa28e51…
10-22 23:27:11	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xd2bd17…
10-22 23:26:54	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x958919…
10-22 23:26:24	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xde99c0…
10-22 23:07:30	Marathon Fusion's "high-rate alchemy" confirmed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	56	80¢	$45	0x33810e…
10-22 22:29:00	Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	107	40¢	$43	0xfe7b2c…
10-22 22:13:36	marathon fusions high rate alchemy confirmed by december 31 2026	No	SELL	37	81¢	$30	0xa9abdf…
10-22 22:13:29	marathon fusions high rate alchemy confirmed by december 31 2026	No	SELL	21	82¢	$18	0xb6a660…
10-22 22:07:14	marathon fusions high rate alchemy confirmed by december 31 2026	No	BUY	114	52¢	$60	0xdd0b59…
10-22 20:09:50	Tokenized stocks available on Coinbase by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0xd62e82…
10-22 20:01:54	Will "Club Kid" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	78	90¢	$70	0x036eda…
10-22 19:12:03	Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2028?	No	BUY	30	54¢	$16	0x6c04c1…
10-22 18:54:30	Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	178	43¢	$77	0xd3b23c…
10-22 18:51:30	Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	285	51¢	$144	0x67ff41…
10-22 17:38:18	Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?	No	SELL	51	57¢	$29	0x6861c3…
10-22 17:00:32	Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	96	95¢	$92	0x4b2c49…
10-22 15:49:14	Will RISEx launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x94c075…
10-22 15:48:56	Will RISEx launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xee5277…