Candid-Collateral-Octagon — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$68

Unrealized P&L

+$111

Hit rate

55.4%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

28 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$689

$2.12K lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

$827

9 positions

First seen

2026-05-17

last 10-23 09:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Politics

53% 20% -$169

Other

43% 33% -$299

Crypto

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	+238	$150	86¢	$204	+$54	09-22 19:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+192	$100	84¢	$161	+$61	05-17 15:01
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+153	$100	86¢	$131	+$32	05-17 15:11
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+149	$100	87¢	$130	+$30	05-17 15:12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+141	$100	82¢	$116	+$16	05-17 15:09
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	+172	$50	18¢	$30	-$20	09-22 19:02
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+192	$34	15¢	$29	-$5	08-20 09:09
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	+128	$32	15¢	$19	-$13	09-22 19:01
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+638	$50	1¢	$7	-$43	05-17 15:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$283	421	0	+421	Yes	+$138	08-20 09:25
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	1	$150	238	0	+238	open	—	09-22 19:02
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	2	$111	280	280	+0	No	-$89	08-28 11:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	1	$100	149	0	+149	Yes	-$100	05-17 17:13
Iran leadership change by December 31?	1	$100	149	0	+149	open	—	05-17 15:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	1	$100	192	0	+192	open	—	05-17 15:01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$100	141	0	+141	open	—	05-17 15:09
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	1	$100	153	0	+153	open	—	05-17 15:11
Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?	1	$99	215	0	+215	Yes	-$99	10-12 14:59
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	1	$99	248	0	+248	Yes	-$99	05-17 18:58
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	1	$99	198	0	+198	cancelled	+$0	05-17 15:15
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	1	$98	191	0	+191	cancelled	-$2	05-17 15:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$90	121	0	+121	Yes	-$90	05-17 18:56
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	1	$79	231	0	+231	Yes	-$79	05-24 15:15
Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	1	$75	210	0	+210	No	-$75	06-01 17:50
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	1	$50	638	0	+638	open	—	05-17 15:02
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	1	$50	172	0	+172	open	—	09-22 19:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$50	86	0	+86	No	+$36	05-17 15:16
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	1	$50	82	0	+82	No	+$32	05-17 15:14
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?	1	$50	75	0	+75	Yes	-$50	05-17 15:13
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	1	$49	98	0	+98	cancelled	+$0	05-17 15:15
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	1	$47	81	0	+81	Yes	+$34	05-17 17:00
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	1	$34	192	0	+192	open	—	08-20 09:09
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	1	$32	128	0	+128	open	—	09-22 19:01
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	1	$18	429	0	+429	Yes	-$18	10-23 09:45
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	1	$10	74	0	+74	No	-$10	05-17 17:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 09:45:11	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	429	4¢	$18	0xae7bbc…
10-12 14:59:00	Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?	No	BUY	215	46¢	$99	0x569a74…
09-22 19:02:39	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	238	63¢	$150	0xa2d215…
09-22 19:02:06	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0x8e587d…
09-22 19:01:48	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	128	25¢	$32	0xea6ec5…
08-28 11:55:16	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	SELL	280	4¢	$11	0x165b3b…
08-20 09:25:36	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	279	70¢	$195	0x0e067a…
08-20 09:18:18	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	Yes	BUY	280	36¢	$100	0x36dc7a…
08-20 09:09:09	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	192	18¢	$34	0xbd1453…
06-01 17:50:03	Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	210	36¢	$75	0x671caf…
05-24 15:15:03	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	BUY	231	34¢	$79	0x89e85b…
05-17 18:58:06	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	248	40¢	$99	0xa849b8…
05-17 18:56:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	121	74¢	$90	0x7c039d…
05-17 17:13:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x0b93b4…
05-17 17:00:52	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	74	13¢	$10	0xd7cb11…
05-17 17:00:05	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	81	58¢	$47	0x748ad8…
05-17 15:16:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x2c0b49…
05-17 15:16:01	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	BUY	191	51¢	$98	0x9efc3e…
05-17 15:15:33	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	BUY	198	50¢	$99	0x1ee2bc…
05-17 15:15:09	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	BUY	98	50¢	$49	0x3f905c…
05-17 15:14:32	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x594e13…
05-17 15:13:15	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?	No	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0xbfe1c0…
05-17 15:12:10	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x654f5e…
05-17 15:11:46	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	153	65¢	$100	0x39e760…
05-17 15:09:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x7a2392…
05-17 15:02:26	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	638	8¢	$50	0xb2aa41…
05-17 15:01:49	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	142	62¢	$88	0x041bcb…
05-17 15:01:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0xeb9b19…