Pale-Chronograph — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

83.3%

Resolved

Trades

149

lifetime

Volume

$4.21K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

$50

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 07-14 13:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

73% 67% $-8

Other

26% 100% +$7

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+55	$40	50¢	$27	$-13	07-05 15:51
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes		+151	$30	15¢	$23	$-7	07-06 07:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	6	$307	282	282	+0	open	—	06-11 20:04
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	3	$206	124	124	+0	open	—	06-12 07:34
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	5	$146	108	108	+0	open	—	06-08 12:21
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$145	167	167	+0	open	—	06-18 07:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$126	50	110	-60	open	—	06-01 16:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$120	70	70	+0	open	—	06-18 07:42
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$119	64	64	+0	open	—	06-20 07:38
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	4	$116	72	72	+0	open	—	04-19 07:10
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	2	$115	217	217	+0	open	—	06-16 08:08
will grgory doucet win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	3	$101	214	214	+0	open	—	03-16 07:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$93	67	36	+32	open	—	05-07 08:37
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils?	2	$87	51	51	+0	Yes	+$7	04-20 10:31
will benot payan win the marseille mayor election	2	$85	53	53	+0	open	—	01-30 16:24
will social democrats win the most seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	1	$83	88	0	+88	open	—	03-01 12:42
will rachida dati win the paris mayor election	5	$81	90	7	+83	open	—	03-21 09:44
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	2	$80	41	41	-0	open	—	06-10 17:59
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$79	46	46	+0	open	—	06-18 07:43
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	5	$68	75	29	+46	open	—	03-19 12:14
will peoples party win the most seats in the lgting in the 2026 faroese general election	2	$64	69	0	+69	open	—	03-25 19:03
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	2	$63	45	45	+0	No	+$3	04-23 09:56
us iran nuclear deal by july 31	2	$63	66	66	+0	open	—	06-11 20:15
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	2	$61	34	34	+0	open	—	06-04 07:56
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$61	32	32	+0	open	—	04-18 09:49
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	2	$60	34	34	+0	open	—	01-31 09:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$60	64	0	+64	open	—	06-01 07:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$55	32	32	+0	open	—	02-01 13:35
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	2	$54	63	63	+0	open	—	06-11 08:26
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	2	$52	104	104	+0	open	—	06-09 18:41
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$50	52	0	+52	open	—	05-20 09:20
Will Lutfur Rahman win the 2026 London Borough of Tower Hamlets mayoral election?	2	$49	57	0	+57	Yes	+$8	04-26 07:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 13:49:44	will the for safe food through strengthening sustainable domestic production increasing plant based foods and ensuring clean drinking water food initiative initiative be approved in switzerlands september 27 2026 popular vote copy 20260713144919278	Yes	BUY	313	6¢	$20	0x83f9a3…
07-06 07:58:38	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	151	20¢	$30	0x86a916…
07-05 15:51:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	55	73¢	$40	0x0bc2e9…
06-20 07:38:43	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	64	94¢	$60	0xa1b734…
06-18 07:43:55	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	46	83¢	$38	0x09797c…
06-18 07:42:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	70	80¢	$56	0x6f1f78…
06-18 07:42:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	167	39¢	$65	0x641126…
06-16 08:08:12	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	217	30¢	$65	0x7dc77c…
06-15 15:00:07	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	217	23¢	$50	0x53f11f…
06-15 14:52:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	167	48¢	$80	0x17333d…
06-12 07:34:13	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	124	85¢	$106	0x40d325…
06-11 20:15:06	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	Yes	SELL	66	50¢	$33	0x6e4c32…
06-11 20:05:22	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	47	96¢	$45	0x500a95…
06-11 20:04:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	118	49¢	$58	0x1151c3…
06-11 08:26:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	63	43¢	$27	0xd1e169…
06-11 08:25:48	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	64	92¢	$59	0x770722…
06-11 08:22:07	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x175315…
06-10 17:59:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	41	97¢	$40	0x9ffe0b…
06-09 18:41:07	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	SELL	104	26¢	$27	0xa312e0…
06-08 12:32:01	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0xa8e54e…
06-08 12:25:45	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	526	4¢	$20	0xbb018c…
06-08 12:21:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	60	77¢	$46	0x0cdd0c…
06-08 07:27:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	70	91¢	$64	0xc52daf…
06-07 13:21:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	63	43¢	$27	0x5724f3…
06-07 13:13:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	39	69¢	$27	0x24e7ad…
06-06 08:05:54	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	46	89¢	$41	0x629760…
06-06 08:00:55	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x8807f4…
06-04 07:56:55	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0x76d89e…
06-04 07:56:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	SELL	34	92¢	$31	0x2aeed4…
06-02 19:19:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0x0f7747…
06-01 16:25:51	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	24	69¢	$17	0xc45b3f…
06-01 16:22:59	US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	66	46¢	$30	0x55402e…
06-01 16:17:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	110	78¢	$86	0x0afdbb…
06-01 16:16:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	41	66¢	$27	0xdc21d8…
06-01 15:03:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0xdd3dbc…
06-01 15:02:52	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xf8430a…
06-01 15:02:12	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x99e2fb…
06-01 15:01:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x0ae0ed…
06-01 14:59:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	84	66¢	$55	0x47ac62…
06-01 14:57:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x21b3de…
06-01 14:56:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	34¢	$40	0x1800c4…
06-01 07:54:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0x0005fb…
06-01 07:53:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0xb9071f…
05-31 15:48:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	24	64¢	$15	0x79489a…
05-30 13:48:20	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	48	58¢	$28	0xab14d0…
05-30 13:45:10	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x1fc2d5…
05-27 08:24:17	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	92¢	$40	0x96ece3…
05-26 13:17:28	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	81¢	$48	0xcbb8e6…
05-25 12:43:10	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x52fa6f…
05-20 09:22:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x15b61c…
05-20 09:20:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x9960ff…
05-07 08:37:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x9fe866…
05-05 08:16:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0x79d464…
04-30 06:19:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	36	92¢	$33	0x4e136f…
04-28 08:09:42	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0xce8ac4…
04-28 08:05:14	Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Yes	BUY	41	74¢	$30	0xd7cc57…
04-26 07:35:08	Will Lutfur Rahman win the 2026 London Borough of Tower Hamlets mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$29	0x2801de…
04-25 07:51:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0xf645fc…
04-23 10:56:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0x76f150…
04-23 10:04:24	Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0x018799…
04-23 09:56:58	Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	45	74¢	$33	0x473418…
04-22 07:56:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	14	90¢	$12	0x783a09…
04-20 10:36:00	Will Caroline Woodley win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	66	30¢	$20	0xf281d3…
04-20 10:31:00	Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils?	Yes	SELL	51	93¢	$47	0x7b4ea8…
04-20 07:34:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xe481a2…
04-19 13:28:24	Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x3d0097…
04-19 07:23:40	Will Lutfur Rahman win the 2026 London Borough of Tower Hamlets mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0xf7a412…
04-19 07:20:56	Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils?	Yes	BUY	51	79¢	$40	0xc79f41…
04-19 07:10:08	Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	41	94¢	$39	0x023fa7…
04-19 07:06:40	Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xe6ccaa…
04-18 09:49:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xb340a1…
04-12 15:22:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x0e4eb0…
04-12 15:15:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0xfac08e…
04-10 12:39:43	will the indian national congress inc win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0x328da4…
04-09 13:13:43	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	Yes	SELL	35	30¢	$11	0x47e87c…
04-09 07:16:45	will christine frechette be the next premier of quebec following the 2026 caq leadership elections	Yes	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x115b87…
04-09 07:13:49	Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	41	72¢	$30	0x43f793…
04-09 07:06:31	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0x316afc…
04-07 18:26:07	Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	31	86¢	$27	0x27914f…
04-01 08:26:37	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xca0fad…
03-28 20:01:36	Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x678c2e…
03-26 17:11:45	will the indian national congress inc win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xcdfa63…
03-25 19:03:37	will peoples party win the most seats in the lgting in the 2026 faroese general election	Yes	BUY	26	93¢	$24	0xa20fd4…
03-25 19:01:29	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x744183…
03-25 17:41:09	will peoples party win the most seats in the lgting in the 2026 faroese general election	Yes	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0xb4d5ed…
03-23 08:53:39	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	SELL	25	1¢	$0	0xa3b628…
03-23 08:52:27	will beinir johannesen be the next lgmaur of the faroe islands following the 2026 faroese general election	Yes	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0xead037…
03-23 08:50:29	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	Yes	BUY	35	56¢	$20	0x640706…
03-23 08:47:35	will ftima tardo win the 2026 sucre mayoral election	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x5f4116…
03-23 08:46:19	Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x669bee…
03-23 08:43:27	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x543ac8…
03-23 08:41:25	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x58869e…
03-21 09:44:43	will rachida dati win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x862266…
03-20 20:01:15	will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 21 2026	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x0b0f8f…
03-20 19:57:27	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x75c515…
03-19 12:14:29	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	BUY	16	73¢	$12	0x3bbec5…
03-19 07:23:33	will rachida dati win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	16	73¢	$12	0x980a65…
03-18 14:05:47	will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 20 2026	Yes	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0x79b459…
03-18 14:04:27	will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 18 2026	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xf426e2…
03-16 08:20:15	will rachida dati win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x8fca81…