Realized P&L (7d)
-$873
Unrealized P&L
-$1.64K
Hit rate
82.1%
Resolved (7d)
38
Trades (7d)
758
11,990 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$156.2K
$1.77M lifetime
Avg / trade
$147
Open exposure
$52.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-31 21:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 197 days
Categories
Politics
70% 42% +$15,472
Other
18% 48% +$4,870
Sports
10% 51% -$2,087
Crypto
1% 56% +$537
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
54 active days in 12wk • peak 405 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +11,041 $6,886 70¢ $7.8K +$897 10-30 15:57
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +10,123 $9,302 66¢ $6.7K -$2,571 10-28 18:58
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +8,065 $5,041 70¢ $5.7K +$645 10-30 19:43
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -4,077 -$2,801 86¢ $-3525 -$723 09-11 15:09
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? Yes +7,189 $2,885 45¢ $3.2K +$350 10-31 12:44
No one announced as next James Bond? No +2,655 $1,935 89¢ $2.4K +$417 10-17 01:22
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +3,066 $1,967 70¢ $2.2K +$195 10-30 19:43
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +2,509 $1,867 74¢ $1.8K -$23 10-30 19:48
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -2,050 -$1,364 82¢ $-1692 -$327 10-29 23:05
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No +2,047 $1,467 74¢ $1.5K +$58 10-27 12:25
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat? Yes +4,547 $1,474 33¢ $1.5K +$27 10-29 00:09
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +2,149 $1,518 70¢ $1.5K -$24 10-30 14:12
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? No +4,080 $1,613 34¢ $1.4K -$246 10-21 19:26
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? Yes +10,000 $1,400 12¢ $1.1K -$250 10-31 12:51
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -2,826 -$271 38¢ $-1080 -$809 10-03 20:12
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +2,064 $774 50¢ $1.0K +$247 09-21 19:22
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,348 $839 74¢ $990 +$151 10-16 15:39
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,243 $1,224 42¢ $948 -$276 10-05 11:33
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +1,000 $660 72¢ $725 +$65 10-27 11:21
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -3,996 -$1,155 16¢ $-651 +$503 09-10 22:24
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? Yes +1,412 $537 44¢ $628 +$92 10-28 23:32
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,000 $670 60¢ $605 -$65 10-01 08:37
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +995 $332 54¢ $532 +$200 10-27 18:00
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -592 -$460 84¢ $-497 -$37 10-25 16:43
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +588 $459 82¢ $480 +$21 10-30 01:43
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? Yes +500 $440 94¢ $468 +$28 10-10 12:54
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes +4,000 $570 12¢ $460 -$110 10-05 01:39
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +500 $425 74¢ $372 -$52 10-09 09:18
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +2,404 $386 15¢ $363 -$22 09-10 03:55
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +400 $336 85¢ $340 +$4 09-18 20:24