Indelible-Dhow — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$19.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.10K

Hit rate

78.8%

Resolved (90d)

356

Trades (90d)

2,686

12,463 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$500.4K

$1.87M lifetime

Avg / trade

$150

Open exposure

$15.8K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-06 02:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 202 days

Categories

Politics

70% 45% +$29,517

Other

19% 49% +$8,927

Sports

10% 51% -$1,441

Crypto

1% 56% +$537

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 405 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-4,269	-$2,973	91¢	$-3883	-$909	11-05 20:16
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	+2,655	$1,935	86¢	$2.3K	+$346	10-17 01:22
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-2,050	-$1,364	88¢	$-1794	-$430	10-29 23:05
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-3,797	-$595	38¢	$-1426	-$831	11-05 20:18
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	No	+4,080	$1,613	32¢	$1.3K	-$328	10-21 19:26
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	-592	-$460	91¢	$-541	-$80	10-25 16:43
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+4,000	$570	14¢	$540	-$30	10-05 01:39
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-3,996	-$1,155	13¢	$-506	+$649	09-10 22:24
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+15,021	$521	3¢	$428	-$93	11-04 04:06
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	-300	-$233	98¢	$-295	-$62	06-02 15:41
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+333	$154	78¢	$261	+$107	09-18 19:34
Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	Yes	+4,328	$222	6¢	$255	+$34	11-03 00:28
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-14,588	-$417	2¢	$-241	+$176	06-16 18:48
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+1,457	$137	14¢	$206	+$70	10-08 16:41
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	-200	-$176	98¢	$-196	-$20	05-28 19:26
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2,000	$280	10¢	$190	-$90	09-29 23:57
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	-191	-$686	98¢	$-187	+$500	11-04 17:28
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+1,709	$79	9¢	$160	+$81	10-03 22:00
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+877	$236	18¢	$158	-$78	11-04 17:53
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	+2,000	$295	8¢	$150	-$145	11-02 20:26
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	-150	-$371	99¢	$-148	+$223	11-05 01:21
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	+652	$123	18¢	$121	-$2	11-04 23:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Yes	+455	$100	24¢	$111	+$11	11-05 00:27
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-1,494	-$238	7¢	$-108	+$129	05-28 18:57
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+3,000	$39	2¢	$70	+$32	10-03 22:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	+2,000	$233	3¢	$67	-$166	10-09 19:20
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+2,000	-$22	3¢	$61	+$83	10-15 23:30
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+1,539	$47	4¢	$56	+$10	10-11 22:25
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	Yes	+1,402	$84	4¢	$53	-$32	11-03 21:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+500	$298	10¢	$48	-$250	10-31 19:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	180	$105.3K	68,912	67,724	+1,188	No	+$4,357	01-15 03:36
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	330	$78.9K	75,290	63,476	+11,813	No	-$4,988	01-30 02:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	319	$76.7K	77,900	74,478	+3,422	Yes	+$12,314	04-07 23:27
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	149	$56.3K	45,343	45,343	+0	open	—	11-04 16:53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	366	$50.3K	77,276	76,916	+360	Yes	+$1,663	05-01 12:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	357	$46.5K	93,779	57,700	+36,078	No	-$10,768	05-29 18:50
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	225	$45.9K	40,002	22,586	+17,416	Yes	+$6,021	10-26 22:44
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	291	$42.6K	91,607	95,496	-3,889	No	+$4,931	04-21 19:46
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	100	$31.4K	22,582	22,382	+200	No	+$923	03-23 15:44
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	190	$27.3K	16,357	18,407	-2,050	open	—	10-29 23:05
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	78	$27.1K	19,896	19,796	+100	No	+$1,013	10-25 22:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	112	$25.8K	35,941	35,941	+0	Yes	+$5,967	06-16 18:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	55	$23.9K	16,583	17,083	-500	No	-$406	01-14 20:09
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	86	$22.3K	25,254	25,910	-656	No	+$230	01-15 03:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	238	$22.0K	62,533	58,318	+4,215	No	-$1,946	04-26 18:51
will uk strike iran by march 31	48	$21.7K	12,029	12,713	-685	No	+$1,269	03-23 15:46
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	74	$19.8K	15,807	17,796	-1,990	Yes	-$2,001	02-03 03:52
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	149	$19.4K	14,084	14,099	-15	No	+$430	02-04 03:11
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	122	$18.3K	14,459	14,313	+147	No	-$717	01-15 00:20
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	358	$18.3K	23,926	18,967	+4,959	Yes	-$1,587	04-03 21:16
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	41	$17.5K	9,883	9,583	+300	No	+$226	01-13 17:02
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	91	$16.1K	14,017	14,090	-73	Yes	+$298	03-31 17:47
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	65	$16.0K	22,871	17,871	+5,000	Yes	+$8,898	04-18 23:45
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	90	$15.7K	16,800	16,300	+500	No	+$40	10-19 11:29
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	39	$15.5K	28,251	28,251	+0	Yes	+$1,862	04-19 19:51
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	77	$15.3K	18,020	18,820	-800	No	+$1,457	05-27 17:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	63	$14.7K	35,297	17,497	+17,800	No	-$6,392	05-23 21:35
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	34	$14.5K	15,765	5,211	+10,554	No	+$3,552	11-04 00:03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	35	$14.1K	9,559	8,453	+1,105	Yes	+$431	10-27 23:10
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	65	$14.0K	8,561	8,090	+471	No	+$506	01-14 14:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 02:10:37	Jaguars vs. Ravens	Ravens	BUY	437	18¢	$79	0x3da8db…
11-06 01:20:43	Jaguars vs. Ravens	Ravens	BUY	90	16¢	$14	0x2a0adf…
11-05 23:35:18	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x213fb1…
11-05 23:34:09	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	11	12¢	$1	0x5c323c…
11-05 20:19:52	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,500	12¢	$181	0xccfca4…
11-05 20:19:40	Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	500	52¢	$261	0x41abc4…
11-05 20:18:48	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1,540	34¢	$530	0x0fbead…
11-05 20:18:00	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	3¢	$15	0x8b529f…
11-05 20:17:40	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	368	1¢	$4	0x43a47d…
11-05 20:17:27	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	350	4¢	$12	0x0e8bb9…
11-05 20:17:15	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,267	2¢	$23	0x768d3b…
11-05 20:17:07	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	75	27¢	$20	0x8bead1…
11-05 20:16:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	SELL	60	94¢	$57	0x5eb093…
11-05 20:16:31	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	SELL	132	95¢	$125	0x390067…
11-05 20:16:22	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	192	90¢	$172	0xfa7e69…
11-05 20:16:13	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	270	34¢	$93	0xd7b510…
11-05 20:16:01	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	36¢	$179	0x958df7…
11-05 20:12:55	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x07d1c8…
11-05 20:12:28	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0x609a77…
11-05 20:12:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	SELL	140	95¢	$133	0x4d4f4b…
11-05 20:11:24	Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	400	85¢	$340	0xac4e08…
11-05 20:11:12	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	500	69¢	$345	0x1983e4…
11-05 20:10:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	714	52¢	$374	0x727704…
11-05 20:09:43	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	67¢	$665	0x1cd415…
11-05 20:09:30	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	1,289	66¢	$851	0xf2619f…
11-05 20:08:49	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	1,559	51¢	$795	0xbe9e08…
11-05 20:08:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	SELL	1,773	65¢	$1,153	0x162282…
11-05 10:58:18	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	7¢	$9	0x3a6938…
11-05 10:58:16	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	7¢	$8	0x370e7f…
11-05 10:53:22	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0xce9868…
11-05 10:52:24	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	7¢	$1	0xfa425c…
11-05 07:00:31	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x98b532…
11-05 05:08:55	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,182	90¢	$1,063	0xd42fe1…
11-05 04:26:27	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xcd5b9f…
11-05 03:29:13	Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0xf46b6d…
11-05 02:18:31	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xb4978a…
11-05 02:18:31	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x2711a0…
11-05 01:21:25	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	945	99¢	$937	0xb5f747…
11-05 01:20:06	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	55	99¢	$55	0xb07409…
11-05 01:11:51	Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	247	53¢	$131	0x8bd137…
11-05 00:57:34	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	125	68¢	$85	0xfb8b71…
11-05 00:57:04	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	150	68¢	$102	0xa55c19…
11-05 00:57:04	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	25	68¢	$17	0x92b3e6…
11-05 00:55:24	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in November?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x09ba27…
11-05 00:44:06	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in November?	No	SELL	52	89¢	$46	0x58cefa…
11-05 00:35:52	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	42	12¢	$5	0xed2799…
11-05 00:35:22	Jazz vs. Pelicans	Jazz	BUY	41	37¢	$15	0x21ab94…
11-05 00:35:12	76ers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x354867…
11-05 00:34:31	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in November?	No	SELL	7	89¢	$7	0x8b292b…
11-05 00:33:42	Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 227.5	Under	BUY	71	49¢	$35	0x7be68d…
11-05 00:33:40	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in November?	No	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0xa3eb76…
11-05 00:33:40	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in November?	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x78be18…
11-05 00:33:39	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in November?	No	SELL	337	89¢	$300	0x2668a0…
11-05 00:33:06	Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)	Grizzlies	BUY	73	48¢	$35	0x25d626…
11-05 00:29:45	Hornets vs. Nets	Hornets	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0xcfd504…
11-05 00:27:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	455	22¢	$100	0x89148b…
11-05 00:25:39	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0xf93e2d…
11-05 00:04:24	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	56	12¢	$7	0x0b282c…
11-04 23:59:06	São Paulo FC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	59	61¢	$36	0x2a668a…
11-04 23:58:39	Senators vs. Sabres	Senators	BUY	78	46¢	$36	0xfc0cc7…
11-04 23:58:03	Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 213.5	Under	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0x676cc5…
11-04 23:57:49	Spread: Central Michigan (-2.5)	Central Michigan	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0xacf6b6…
11-04 23:56:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in November?	No	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x4121bd…
11-04 23:56:04	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	SELL	588	88¢	$519	0x885a01…
11-04 23:53:49	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in November?	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x6b3472…
11-04 23:53:48	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in November?	No	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0x34c1e9…
11-04 23:53:46	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in November?	No	SELL	337	89¢	$300	0xa5c4c4…
11-04 23:52:27	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	SELL	176	99¢	$174	0xd37815…
11-04 23:52:27	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	SELL	619	99¢	$613	0x98ed9e…
11-04 23:39:21	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	119	53¢	$63	0x15ca0b…
11-04 23:38:54	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x3e3ec3…
11-04 23:38:19	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0x4ff2a3…
11-04 23:38:16	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0xe0488b…
11-04 23:37:13	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	17	53¢	$9	0x00aa18…
11-04 23:36:18	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0x483e87…
11-04 23:31:28	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	500	19¢	$95	0x1d0625…
11-04 23:25:52	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x98b089…
11-04 23:15:51	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	413	64¢	$264	0x098049…
11-04 22:55:22	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	87	64¢	$56	0xc94dcb…
11-04 22:34:52	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	590	56¢	$331	0x1eb43e…
11-04 22:30:33	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x3c6080…
11-04 22:30:15	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	137	56¢	$77	0xb997ee…
11-04 22:30:10	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	44	56¢	$25	0xd1f6a1…
11-04 22:29:43	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xf3a117…
11-04 22:26:16	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	168	56¢	$94	0xb544c2…
11-04 22:02:12	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	751	65¢	$488	0xf1fee1…
11-04 21:35:58	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x9022c4…
11-04 21:34:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x4c45f9…
11-04 21:32:39	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0x869193…
11-04 21:28:46	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xa6b274…
11-04 21:21:54	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x93ee8e…
11-04 21:20:30	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	59	57¢	$34	0xedcd14…
11-04 21:18:34	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	222	65¢	$144	0xedbdd4…
11-04 21:08:12	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	227	12¢	$27	0xfc4efd…
11-04 21:04:27	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	148	18¢	$27	0x1b805c…
11-04 19:19:16	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in November?	No	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x0774e1…
11-04 17:53:34	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x70ae96…
11-04 17:53:33	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	16¢	$1	0x7e140e…
11-04 17:53:31	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x5e0c2b…
11-04 17:30:30	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in November?	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0xe36311…